Chael Sonnen thinks Arman Tsarukyan is the No. 1 contender after all.

Tsarukyan (23-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC) pulled out of his lightweight title bout against Islam Makhachev just one day before UFC 311 in January, resulting in Dana White saying that he had to earn his way back to a shot.

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UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria (17-0 MMA, 9-0 UFC) recently claimed that he’d vacate his belt before defending it against Tsarukyan, and sees either Justin Gaethje or Paddy Pimblett as first title defense. However, despite all those stipulations, Sonnen says he’s hearing otherwise.

“Outside of illness or injury, even if I’m breaking news to you, I’m not sharing my opinion. I’m sharing a fact with you: It’s Arman vs. Ilia,” Sonnen told MMA Junkie. “That is 100 percent the plan.”

Sonnen explained where he came up with his theory.

“There’s a couple things (that have changed for Tsarukyan),” Sonnen said. “I’m obviously coming to you with information, whether I should have or shouldn’t have. Secondly, I was the best man at his wedding and his name is Darryl Christian and he’s the wrestling coach of Arman Tsarukyan. Third of all, I just spoke to coach (Sam Calavitta) who wanted to film Chimaev training, and it turned out Tsarukyan is in the room. And a bigger tell also is what Ilia did a week ago, which he said, ‘I don’t want the fight.’ The greats, they don’t even know they have it. … Ilia’s first move for doing a fight is to deny the fight. The only person that he said he’ll openly fight is Paddy.

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“Everybody else that he’s getting ready to fight, he denies. It’s just his approach. Anderson (Silva) had one. He would always deny the fight and he would let that run for about two weeks. He would then accept the fight. He would let that run for about a month then he would slip an injury report to the media where you think the fight is off and it’s not going to happen. He would go and get his run out of that and would tell everybody, ‘I’m fine, it’s on.’ I’m only sharing. That was his system – 100 percent of his fights, he built the same way. Ilia’s not any different, whether he knows about it or not. Ilia’s first move when he’s going to fight a guy, aside from Paddy, is to say to, ‘I’m not going to fight the guy.'”

Tsarukyan weighed in as the official backup for the vacant lightweight title fight between Topuria and Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 in June, but his services weren’t needed. Tsarukyan hasn’t competed since defeating Oliveira at UFC 300 last April.

“(Tsarukyan) got put through a purgatory and he had to get out of it, but he did,” Sonnen said. “When he showed up, got licensed, weighed in, went through a training camp and he has to sit in the first row and even watch Paddy ‘The Baddy’ get in the ring and get the attention and not him, I’m just saying, there is an appreciation, historically, that has shined down – and it’s also going to be shown to him.”

Like many pundits, Sonnen agrees that Tsarukyan is Topuria’s sternest test on paper – but still sees “El Matador” being the favorite.

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“Matchup-wise, the hardest matchup for Ilia is Arman Tsarukyan. … I think that the world would lean toward Topuria right now,” Sonnen said. “He’s just the flavor. He’s hot. He’s undefeated and he’s the champion of the world. (He) should be two-division champion, BMF champion, lineal-wise. But if Tsarukyan gets his hand on you, you’ve got a problem.”

To hear more from Sonnen, check out his complete appearance on “The Bohnfire” podcast with MMA Junkie senior reporter Mike Bohn above.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: UFC analyst: Ilia Topuria vs. Arman Tsarukyan ‘100 percent’ the plan