“He’s obviously playing at an incredibly high level. When we played in the exhibition match [pre-Australian Open, which Alcaraz won 6-3, 6-4], he was playing some pretty high-quality tennis. I know what to expect.”
What the numbers say
An in-depth look at the Alcaraz-de Minaur clashes shows that the Australian’s outstanding returning has dented the Spaniard’s numbers, in comparison to the level he produced in the past year when he ascended to No.1.
Alcaraz’s ace rate, first-serve percentage, points won on first and second serves, hold percentage and service points won against de Minaur are lower than against all players in the last 52 weeks.
However, the issue is that de Minaur’s numbers suffer more.
His service-hold percentage of 85.2 per cent in the past year plummets to only 70.5 per cent in five matches against Alcaraz, while his break percentage – how often he breaks his opponent’s serve – sinks from 28.7 per cent to 14.8.
Dual US Open champion Pat Rafter, who described facing Alcaraz as a “nightmare”, said de Minaur needed to get to the net where possible and use plenty of variety, including his slice to try to bring Alcaraz forward.
“But if [Alcaraz] gets there early, he is going to hurt him so much,” Rafter said. “I think Alex has to play around with a couple of things early, and see if it works, and find out if there is any chink in his armour.”
Alex de Minaur’s serve comes under intense scrutiny.Credit: Getty Images
Can Demon’s serve hold up?
No part of de Minaur’s game is more critiqued than his serve.
The Australian has sacrificed his first-serve percentage during his ascension to the top 10 while searching for more cheap points, but Sinner and Alcaraz have put him under pressure during their matches to date.
That said, he has never served better than he has at Melbourne Park in the past week.
De Minaur ranked equal 98th at Wimbledon last year for percentage of unreturned first serves, despite making it to the fourth round.
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The Australian Open is played on hardcourts compared to London’s grass, but he comes in at equal 37th in that metric so far at 42 per cent (the average is 39). De Minaur had more unreturned serves than both Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik in his last two wins.
His first-serve percentage of 62 is one point below the tournament average, but higher than the 56 per cent he went at in the past year.
Remarkably, de Minaur is winning 79 per cent of his first-serve points, which ranks equal 11th, alongside the likes of renowned servers Taylor Fritz and Hubert Hurkacz. That is a major development, and would heighten his chances against Alcaraz if he can maintain it.
Alcaraz, who has not dropped a set at this year’s event, is going at 74 per cent.
Where else Demon is thriving?
De Minaur has long been considered one of the best returners in the world, and was previously ranked No.1 on the ATP Tour’s return metrics.
De Minaur crunches a forehand return of serve.Credit: AP
He is returning as well as ever based on tournament data, ranking second behind Novak Djokovic for return points won (46 per cent), and second to Sinner for return games won (42 per cent).
But none of that should surprise anyone. What may raise eyebrows is what de Minaur is doing from the baseline, where his ability to play closer than others and rush his opponents has become an art form.
De Minaur ranks equal-first with Djokovic for baseline points won at the Open (60 per cent), but the game-changer for him is his success rate on the money points in the modern game.
To be a top player, you need to win your share of rallies lasting between zero and four shots, which has not always been de Minaur’s strength. Djokovic is No.1 for the tournament, while de Minaur is equal-third with Lorenzo Musetti and Ben Shelton.
Australian great Sam Stosur is among the people who have noticed de Minaur is hitting a bigger ball.
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The eye test and statistics suggest de Minaur has never played better, but it will come down to execution against Alcaraz, a generational talent on track to be one of the greatest ever.
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