AI is not just about data. It also is about the expensive, energy-intensive infrastructure needed to run sophisticated AI semiconductors and cloud computing. Will the US and Europe produce and deliver enough clean, affordable electricity to sustain their ambitions?
So far, the answer is no.
Both European and US governments and the leading cloud computing firms — led by Google, Amazon and Microsoft — are struggling to keep data centers running without breaking their clean energy commitments. Under Donald Trump, the US is poised to speed up permitting for gas-powered centers. In contrast, Europe risks falling behind, widening the transatlantic competitiveness gap.
Competition with China is fierce. Beijing is executing coordinated rollouts of energy and digital infrastructure, bundling land, clean power, and fiber into national-level industrial zones designed for AI and cloud development.
Data centers today consume only around 4% of total US energy supplies. By the end of the decade, that number is set to triple. The bigger the data center, the more powerful the AI. Existing large language models like ChatGPT need large facilities to run their operations and respond to queries. Roughly speaking, one ChatGPT query consumes as much energy as a lightbulb does in 20 minutes.
The Trump Administration’s just-announced AI Action Plan advocates streamlined permitting and long-term infrastructure deals. Massive data center clusters in states such as Texas, the “ground zero” of Trump’s Stargate AI program, benefit from abundant wind and solar, flexible grids, and regulatory environments that reward speed.
Even so, shortages are appearing. America’s largest power grid is under strain as data centers and AI chatbots consume power faster than new plants can be built. Electricity bills are projected to surge by more than 20% in 13 states — from Illinois to Tennessee, Virginia to New Jersey — serving 67 million customers in a region with the most data centers in the world.
The US also suffers from aging infrastructure. In a 2023 report titled Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions, the International Energy Agency found that more than 90% of US power supply interruptions originate in the distribution network.
US utilities “have started to invest in the grid with a new sense of urgency,” reports Corniex, a company specializing in power grid research. In California, Pacific Gas and electricity took out a $15-billion federal guaranteed loan, and in New York proposed an investment plan of $21 billion over three years. Duke Energy is boosting capital expenditure by almost 14% to $83 billion.
Tensions are mounting about who should pay. The utilities want to lock tech companies into long-term contracts. Tech companies say that they should not be forced to pay a premium for investments that also help consumers.
Europe exhibits similar tensions. Energy abundance in some regions is stranded from digital demand centers, grid upgrades lag behind investment needs, and permitting for both renewables and data centers remains painfully slow. Without synchronizing energy, grid, and compute deployment, Europe risks falling behind; not for lack of ambition, but for lack of alignment.
The continent’s compute trajectory is dark. For the next five years, Europe’s data center electricity demand is expected to rise by more than 85 terawatt-hours, triple from 10 GW today to 35 GW. It’s not just about energy generation. The problem is structural. AI models require dense, uninterrupted compute, demanding countless megawatts of consistent load. Current national energy systems were not built for such industrial intensity. Grid interconnectors are overstretched.
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Shortages are already appearing. In Ireland, the grid operator imposed a moratorium on new data centers until 2028 after they consumed more than 20% percent of the country’s total electricity.
Europe’s clean power ambitions are misaligned with its digital infrastructure needs. Nuclear programs have faced delays, and offshore wind capacity remains insufficient to meet projected demand. Even where renewable energy is available, grid and transmission constraints often prevent it from reaching the industrial clusters where AI data centers operate.
A proposed Baltic AI Gigafactory, spanning Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia, illustrates the paradox. While the project promises cutting-edge, sovereign compute capacity, it remains disconnected from a sovereign energy foundation. None of the host countries can yet guarantee an uninterrupted, domestically controlled supply of clean electricity at the scale required by next-generation AI infrastructure. Poland’s grid remains reliant on fossil fuels and cross-border balancing. Lithuania and Estonia, though more advanced in renewables, still depend on imports and legacy interconnections.
Nuclear energy represents Europe’s best chance of catching up. France, which already derives over 60% of its electricity from nuclear power, is uniquely positioned to offer low-carbon, stable baseload energy for AI clusters. France’s electricity major EDF is losing no time luring AI innovators with its “clean” energy. In doing so, it is actively exploring nuclear-powered AI hubs as part of a broader strategy to link industrial decarbonization with digital competitiveness
Nuclear is experiencing a potential renaissance in the US, too. Oklo and Microsoft are experimenting with pairing small modular reactors
Some lessons can be taken from the North. The Nordics offer arguably Europe’s most robust electric grid: abundant clean energy, low prices, cold-climate cooling, and streamlined infrastructure have attracted major hyperscalers. Yet their key challenge remains physical distance from Europe’s population centers. Even with fiber upgrades, the Nordics remain tens of milliseconds from markets like Frankfurt or Paris, ideal for bulk AI training but far from optimal for video streaming or interactive apps.
Outside the European Union, Moldova surprisingly is showing what agility can look like. With 65% of government services already digitalized, the country is not only aligning with EU cybersecurity standards but piloting a real-time energy sandbox law that allows IoT-based systems and AI-grid interactions to be tested under live conditions. For a country with limited resources, this is not just catch-up. It is leapfrog.
Europe does not need abstract principles. It needs zoning, permitting, and pricing mechanisms that prioritize data centers where clean energy is abundant. It needs modular grid flexibility, with battery storage, microgrid integration, and real-time demand-response platforms built into project design. It needs heat reuse incentives to capture the enormous thermal waste produced by compute infrastructure. In Paris, one data center now supplies heat to public swimming pools. Such ingenious developments should be the norm, not the exception.
The West’s digital future will not be written in code alone. It will be shaped by substations, transmission lines, and real-time electricity flows. To close the gap, the US and Europe should start by identifying strategic zones where clean and reliable power can support data center growth. It should align funding for grid expansion with these zones and prioritize cross-border interconnectors that reduce local bottlenecks. Permitting must be streamlined for projects that combine data infrastructure with on-site renewables, battery storage, and heat recovery systems. In short, both the US and Europe must treat AI as an industrial policy challenge.
Maciej Filip Bukowski is the Head of the Energy and Resilience Program at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation in Warsaw, a non-resident fellow with the Tech Policy Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Bandwidth is CEPA’s online journal dedicated to advancing transatlantic cooperation on tech policy. All opinions expressed on Bandwidth are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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