Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SECOND BEST YEAR EVER
Real estate agencies earned almost $2 bln in residential sales commissions in 2025, a +12.4% rise from 2024.

LARGEST MORTGAGE LENDER NOT SO GUNG HO
ANZ has downgraded its +5% house price growth in 2026 to just +2%. It has noted prices have been flat for three straight years, and now because they expect interest rates to start rising in 2026, that will mean another flat year, according to their review.

HIGHER MILK POWDER PRICES
There was another dairy Pulse auction earlier this morning and that brought some interesting signals. The WMP price came in almost identical to last week’s full auction and has been holding at this higher level since the start of 2026 when it made that 7%-plus jump. The SMP price rose a strong +5.9% today from last week, and is now +9% higher than what is was at the end of 2025. Positive signs, but somewhat undermined by the fast-falling USD.

LABOUR MARKET YET TO RISE CONSISTENTLY
Data released by StatsNZ for December shows that filled jobs were flat in in the month, after a solid (revised) rise in November. Basically its been a flat jobs market in the latter part of 2025. This data is drawn from income tax filing, making it a comprehensive record of the number of people in work.

RECORD HIGH, BUT STILL MODEST
The RBNZ’s foreign currency intervention capacity rose to $27.5 bln at the end of December, only a small rise from November, but up a modest $1.7 bln for the year (about +US$1 bln). This rise happened even though the NZD strengthened in the month. In USD, the capacity rose +US$400 mln despite the exchange rate rise. These are still modest levels compared to major bank currency trading capacity on a daily basis.

PLAYED OUR QUIZ YET THIS WEEK?
Our quiz has been updated for this week’s edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 SLIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today. That puts it up +0.4% over the past five working days. It is up +4.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2%. Stride Property, Hallensteins, Contact, and Vista Group lead the gainers while Briscoes, Goodman Property, Tourism Holdings, and Kathmandu are the key decliners.

A SHARP INFLATION WARNING
In Australia, inflation was reported rising 3.8%, far above the November 3.4% and also above the expected 3.6% level. After the strong December labour market data released earlier in the month, this will put heavy pressure on the RBA to act to prevent inflation impulses and inflation expectations from requiring even tougher medicine in the future. Growth hotspots Brisbane and Perth both reported even higher inflation rates. Even Sydney reported 3.7% December inflation. The RBNZ will be looking at this evolving situation with some alarm, given that we too have above-target inflation even without the growth pressures.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% yesterday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.82%. The China 10 year bond rate is +1 bp firmer at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.27% and down -1 bp today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.63%. But that is now close to 2011 levels. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with Tuesday’s rate up +1 bp at 4.60%. The UST 10yr yield is also little-changed from this time yesterday, now up +1 bp at 4.23%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up down -0.4% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.6% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.9% today so far and Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.4%.

OIL RISES
The oil price in the US is up +US$2 at just on US$62.50/bbl while the international Brent price now at US$67.50/bbl, mostly due to USD weakness.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOW
Secondary market has seen few transactions and the price is now at $34.50/NZU today. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD TAKES ANOTHER SPURT
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$156/oz and now at US$5208/oz. Silver up +US$3.50 at US$113.50/oz, but platinum is now at US$2665/oz, down -US$20 from this time yesterday.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from this time yesterday at just on 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 63.6 and up +30 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$89,304 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.2%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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