Scottie Barnes enters Defensive Player of the Year race: NBA Awards Watch

Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. Last week, we brought our own rankings after initially analyzing the BetMGM odds. Let’s start this week by checking in on the Defensive Player of the Year race first.

Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis is a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.

As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s get this out of the way first:

Yes, I watch the games.
Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
No, I don’t hate that player.
No, I don’t hate that team.
If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.

Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)

Defensive Player of the Year

On-track to be ineligible: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (missed 14 games) | Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers (missed 13 games)
Ineligible: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks (missed more than 17 games)
Two honorable mentions: Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves | Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets

3. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors (+5000 to win, previously unmentioned)

I struggled taking Thompson out of the top three momentarily, but Barnes deserves some consideration for the season he’s having. The Raptors have the fifth-best defense in basketball, and Barnes is a massive part of that. It’s a big reason they’re in the mix for the second seed in the Eastern Conference standings. Barnes and the team defense have fueled this team night in and night out. He is averaging 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. And highlights like this game-saving block on Chet Holmgren definitely help the case.

2. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder (-120 to win, previously honorable mention)

I really enjoyed my colleague Fred Katz’s story speaking to Holmgren about some of his defense. I don’t think Holmgren has been the best defensive player on his team this season. I’d say Lu Dort or Alex Caruso are better/more impactful. There’s a case for Cason Wallace and the chaos he creates at the point of attack. But there is a case for Holmgren’s rim-protecting abilities allowing those guys to be more aggressive. A lot of the Thunder’s defense is built on that aggressiveness pressuring the ball because they believe they have backline help. Holmgren feels like the betting favorite out of default because OKC’s defense is so good, but maybe that’s fine. He’s incredible defensively on his own, so it’s not like it would be going to just the tall guy. He can really lock down.

1. Wembanyama (+250 to win)

The only question I have about Wembanyama winning this award is whether he’ll qualify for it. I would imagine that’s the reason he’s not the betting favorite. Wembanyama has so clearly been the most impactful defender in the NBA this season. Maybe the Spurs improving as a team defensively could hurt him a little? With him on the court, they’re the best defense in the NBA (104.6 rating). Put him on the bench or in street clothes, and the Spurs drop to 13th (113.9 rating). A few weeks ago, the Spurs would’ve been like 18th or 19th defensively without Wemby on the bench. We’re also seeing a lot fewer blocks for Wemby. He averaged 3.6 blocks per game in his first 12 games before the knee injury. Since his return, he’s down to 2.1 per game. Does he need a massive number of blocks to take this award? Or just be eligible?

MVP

5. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers (+8000 to win, previously honorable mention)

The Wolves have struggled a bit, so Edwards gets dropped. It gives us a chance to highlight Maxey, who is the lead guy in Philadelphia now. Everybody is falling in line, and Joel Embiid is thriving as the second guy alongside Maxey, who’s giving the Sixers 29.2 points, 6.8 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 2.0 steals a night with 59.4 percent true shooting. The Sixers can’t score without him on the floor, and his impact is felt on nearly every possession.

4. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+1000 to win, previously third)

Cunningham has had a rough January shooting the ball, making just 41.6 percent of his shots this month. It’s enough to give him a slight drop. Yes, he’s the best player on the best team in the East, but “best team in the East” is a little bit by default right now. Cunningham has been great, but this is the kind of nitpicking that moves you up and down the top-five list in MVP discussions. We know there is another gear he can find.

3. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers (+900 to win, previously fifth)

Maybe I had Dončić too low last week. This Lakers team isn’t actually all that good (in comparison to others in the West), and he has them 11 games over .500 and in the mix for home-court advantage in the first round. He’s done a lot of this without Austin Reaves, although he’s back this week. The Lakers, an offensive-minded team, can’t score without Dončić on the floor. Putting up 33.8 points, 8.8 assists and 7.8 rebounds every night and leading the league in free throws puts a ridiculous amount of pressure on the opponent.

2. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+2200 to win)

With the Celtics firmly in the hunt for the No. 2 seed (and currently in possession of it), it’s hard to imagine a better MVP case (outside of No. 1 on this list) than Brown. The Celtics are an elite offense with him on the court, and he’s guarding the best player on the other end of the floor most of the time. He’s nearly averaging 30 points per game (29.6), and his efficiency (57.6 true shooting) remains above his career marks (57.1). Maybe the only thing that could derail his spot here is Jayson Tatum returning and making life easier for Brown.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (-450 to win)

Gilgeous-Alexander is still the leader in the clubhouse for MVP, with Nikola Jokić looking like he’ll be ineligible pretty soon. I don’t think anybody could have really hung with Jokić’s season, but Gilgeous-Alexander would’ve made a great case regardless. If he wins this year, SGA would be the sixth first-time MVP winner to go back-to-back since Steve Nash won his MVP awards in 2005 and 2006. LeBron James, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jokić also went back-to-back after their first MVP award.

Rookie of the Year

Two honorable mentions: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans

3. VJ Edgecombe, 76ers (+2500 to win)2. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (+375 to win)1. Cooper Flagg, Mavericks (-450 to win)

I don’t have any changes with my ROY order right now. I’m still going with Flagg to win it, although Knueppel’s play and the Hornets surging definitely put some pressure on the Mavs rookie. Edgecombe has been spectacular and would be a leading candidate in a lot of seasons. I do wonder what it will take for Knueppel or Edgecombe to overcome Flagg’s status. How much of his being the favorite is the brand recognition? How much of it is the clutch play? How much is just that he outright deserves it? Narrative factors into a lot of ROY discussions over time, but it’s not everything.

Cooper Flagg drives to the basket past VJ Edgecombe earlier this month in Dallas. (Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)

Sixth Man of the Year

Two honorable mentions: Collin Gillespie, Phoenix Suns | Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat

3. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (+450, previously honorable mention)

Johnson’s shooting percentages are pretty impressive. He’s averaging 13.5 points, but he’s doing it on 55.5 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from deep. He was well over 40 percent from deep but recently hit a bit of a shooting slump from outside. He’s also rebounding really well at 5.9 per game. He’s been dynamite for them in fourth quarters and helped close out a lot of games. If he shoots over 55 percent from the field and gets back over 40 percent from deep to end the season, that level of efficiency will be tough to ignore.

2. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves (+250 to win, previously second)

I thought about dropping Reid down to highlight some other players, but he’s been on fire in January. For the season, he’s averaging 14.3 points and 6.3 rebounds on 47.1/39.0/76.1 shooting splits. In January, he’s up to 15.0 points and 6.4 rebounds with 53.6/47.8/66.7 shooting splits. That’s an increase from about a 58 percent true shooting to a 66.2 percent true shooting. The Wolves need him to bring scoring off the bench, and he’s providing exactly that.

1. Ajay Mitchell, Thunder (+550 to win)

Even though he’s not the favorite to win it, Mitchell is still my top Sixth Man so far. He’s stepped into the role with the Thunder and played tremendous basketball coming off the bench. He was barely in the rotation last season, and now he’s one of the leading scorers off the bench in the entire league. The offense takes a massive dip when SGA isn’t in the game, but it’s pretty steady with Mitchell on the court. A lot of that is his ability to complement the MVP and play alongside him. He’s been excellent on both ends of the floor.

Coach of the Year

Two honorable mentions: J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons | Darko Rajaković, Raptors

3. Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+425 to win, previously honorable mention)

If the Spurs end up as the No. 2 seed in the West, this might be Johnson’s award to lose. In his first full season taking over for Gregg Popovich, Johnson has improved above a lot of Spurs tenets.

2. Jordan Ott, Suns (+450 to win, previously first)

If we’re going with expectation versus reality, the reality of the Suns is something even the biggest Suns fans couldn’t have predicted. Ott has established a great culture on both ends of the floor.

1. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics (+500 to win, previously second)

The Celtics being second in the East after losing Tatum (for now), Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford, Jrue Holiday and Luke Kornet is beyond impressive. Mazzulla isn’t the favorite, but he should be.

Most Improved Player

On-track to be ineligible: Wembanyama
Two honorable mentions: Anthony Black, Orlando Magic | Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks

3. Peyton Watson, Nuggets (+5000 to win)2. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (-175 to win)1. Keyonte George, Utah Jazz (+375 to win)

Same order as last week. I truly believe George is the most improved. He went from barely playable to highly payable when he’s available for an extension this coming fall. Is that more impressive and improved than going from a pretty good role player to an All-Star-level season like Avdija? I could be convinced that Black is right there. The reason I don’t have Jalen Johnson in my voting right now is that I feel like we saw this exact improvement from him last season before he got hurt.

Scottie Barnes enters Defensive Player of the Year race: NBA Awards Watch

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