GDP rebounded better than expected in Q2, growing at a 3.0% annualized rate quarter-on-quarter. However, housing prices fell for the third consecutive month in May. Consumer confidence improved in July, reaching 97.2, up from 85.7 in April, according to the Conference Board.
The Senate passed the “Big Beautiful Bill,” signed into law by President Trump on 4 July, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will add USD 3.4 trillion to US debt over the next decade.
Euro area: Inflation at target
In the Euro area, headline HICP-inflation remained stable at 2.0% year-on-year in July, while core inflation held steady at 2.3%. GDP growth slowed less than expected in Q2, rising by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter.
The preliminary composite PMI for the Euro area improved to 51.0 in July, up from 50.6 in June. However, economic activity in Germany was sluggish, with GDP falling by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to preliminary figures.
The EU presented a new proposal for the Multiannual Financial Framework, amounting to around EUR 2,000 billion for the years 2028-2034. Additionally, Bulgaria is set to become the 21st country to adopt the euro in 2026.
Global central banks: On hold and slightly hawkish
Major central banks have maintained a cautious stance. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50% in July, with Fed Chair Powell giving no clear signals regarding the prospect of a rate cut in September. The European Central Bank also kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.0%, emphasising data dependence in future decisions.
The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% in July, in line with expectations. Market expectations for further monetary easing from the ECB and the Riksbank have decreased throughout the summer.
In conclusion, the global economy continues to navigate uncertain waters, with trade tensions, mixed economic indicators and cautious central bank policies shaping the landscape as we move into the latter half of 2025.
See the full presentation: Summer holiday wrap-up