Mercedes and its lead driver George Russell have been regarded as the favourites for the F1 2026 titles for quite some time.

After spending the entire ground-effect era in the shadows, limited to only occasional race wins, last week’s shakedown in Barcelona seemed to confirm that this is a team stepping back into the light…

How the Barcelona F1 2026 test confirmed that Mercedes is rising again

A version of this article originally appeared in PlanetF1.com’s conclusions from the Barcelona shakedown

Nobody can say that there were no warning signs here.

For more than two years there had been whispers – the type of whispers too substantial and persistent to dismiss – that Mercedes’ preparations for the 2026 rule changes were more advanced than its rivals.

Then came the comments of the likes of Carlos Sainz, who admitted last year that the promise of getting his hands on a 2026 Mercedes engine was one of “the main reasons” behind his decision to join Williams in the summer of 2024.

Analysis: What we learned from the first F1 2026 pre-season test in Barcelona

Winners and losers from the Barcelona testing shakedown (Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya)

What we learned about each team from Barcelona F1 2026 shakedown

Then last month came the first tangible hint of the source of that advantage as it emerged that Mercedes is among two 2026 manufacturers believed to have exploited a loophole in the new engine regulations related to compression ratio.

Red Bull Powertrains, for what it’s worth, was the other manufacturer named in the media – a function, almost certainly, of Red Bull’s engine division signing a large number of Mercedes High Performance Powertrains staff over recent years.

Yet it is reportedly Mercedes itself with the firmest grip on, and the fullest understanding of, the new technology at play this season.

All this is why Mercedes was regarded as the overwhelming favourite for 2026 (and, indeed, the place to be for Max Verstappen to instantly return to his dominant ways) long before a wheel had even been turned this year.

Nothing happened last week – a first little glimpse of what this year might hold – to suggest the theory of a Merc-a-thon season will not become the reality over the coming months.

To watch George Russell and Kimi Antonelli effortlessly rack up the laps in Barcelona was to see an F1 team finally stepping out of the darkness and back into the light.

The misery that stalked Mercedes throughout the ground-effect era (just seven race victories between 2022 and 2025) was washed away over the course of five restorative days of testing that, even at this early stage, is likely to tee the team up for its most successful season in years.

Barcelona could not have gone much better for Mercedes, which topped the charts for laps completed among the teams (500) and the engine manufacturers (1,137).

Such was the rock-solid reliability of the W17 that the team is already planning to get straight down to some setup work when the second test begins in Bahrain next month, a luxury few – if any – of the other teams have bought themselves.

There is an energy and optimism about Mercedes in these early weeks of 2026 that has not been present since the end of 2021.

Much like its former driver Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes has been a team diminished for the last four years, scarred by the circumstances of its 2021 defeat and driven to frustration by the repeated failure to recapture its former glories.

Now, though, Mercedes is slowly regaining its strength and its self-confidence.

All those rumours, it seems, were true: the three-pointed star is rising again.

The little signs that suggest a Mercedes advantage in F1 2026

Written by Thomas Maher

The car is likely to evolve quite a bit by the time the Australian Grand Prix rolls around in early March, but the W17 has already caught the eye of several rivals.

Paddock sources have indicated to PlanetF1.com that Mercedes’ on-track programme appeared to significantly advance during the three days to the point where setup evaluations had begun, even if Andrew Shovlin said otherwise in the team’s official end-of-shakedown debrief, a step beyond the work of simply ensuring the car will stay in one piece for a race distance.

While body language might not be how performance is measured in F1, the Brackley-based squad is said to have shown up in Barcelona with a visible confidence and a sense of purpose that hasn’t been evident in recent years.

Indeed, one senior source even suggested that George Russell can scarcely disguise his happiness while striding through the paddock, with the few media interviews carried out offering some hint as to his confidence – even if he was at pains to point out how well the new Red Bull Powertrains and Ferrari engines have performed.

What Mercedes said after the Barcelona shakedown

Andrew Shovlin, Mercedes’ long-serving trackside engineer director, said: “It’s been really impressive from a reliability point of view.

“There are all new systems on the car. It’s worked brilliantly.

“We finished a day early, but part of that is that the car’s just allowed us to run the programme day by day as we planned it.

“We were focused on just understanding the new systems. There’s always going to be a lot of challenges with new power units, new electronics.

“Obviously, the regulations are all new on the chassis side, but all of the areas that weren’t great on day one, we’ve made good progress, so that’s very encouraging – and that progress is actually making us quicker day by day, so that’s great.

“I think the reliability has just been amazing, which is a huge testament to all that work at Brixworth and at Brackley to bring this project together.

“[In] Bahrain, we’re going to move more to setup exploration, trying to work out how you get the car in the right window.

“Whilst you can do setup here [in Barcelona], it’s so cold it’s not really relevant to any race track.

“Bahrain is going to be a much better place to check that the car runs well at temperature, both in terms of the chassis performance side, but also just to the systems running effectively.

“That final Bahrain [test] hopefully will be more just about the race prep, so preparing for qualifying, preparing for race, and all the situations that that throws up.”

Reader reaction: Mercedes set to start the F1 2026 season as the favourite

Alexandra Peller: I would find it so funny if Mercedes do turn out to be the team to beat… Cause Hamilton left a team about to provide him with another dominant car to hide his lack of talent to go get spanked by Leclerc.

Bobby Laverack (in reply to Alexandra Peller): I’ve a feeling Wolff would have replaced Hamilton given his declining performance over the last few years anyway, he probably wouldn’t have been offered a drive this season given Antonelli was waiting in the wings

Harry Winters: The only valid conclusion is that testing is testing: the process of evaluating the product, the new F1 car, to identify usability issues, or areas for improvement. All the rest is speculation.

Charlie: This is a bad article riding the nuts of Mercedes, based on what – a feeling? Being ahead of one’s program doesn’t not make them the favourite by any means.

Chaz: I would put Merc ahead of McLaren and Ferrari followed by Red Bull. All the others a bit behind at the moment. The midfield is pretty close and Cadillac and Audi bringing up the rear. Williams we don’t know yet.

AJ77X: Data gathering exercise for the teams nothing more. I can imagine Russell’s massive ego taking a little hit when Lewis beat his best time.

But overall the timings are irrelevant at this stage. Bahrain will give a more better picture, but even there will still be teams there who will hold back performance for Australia

Paul James: Another lazy article banging the drums essentially crowning Merc as the champions. Nearly zero regarding actual performance was gleaned over the week…

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