The final in this year’s edition of Open Occitanie Montpellier is now set after some solid semifinal performances, with Felix Auger-Aliassime taking on Adrian Mannarino in a matchup that blends power with craft. We here at LWOT give our prediction and analysis in this article. But who will lift the trophy?
ATP Montpellier Final Prediction
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Adrian Mannarino
Head-to-Head: Auger-Aliassime 1–1 Mannarino
Both players have shown good form to reach this stage in Montpellier, though they have taken slightly different paths to the final. Auger-Aliassime, the defending champion, began his campaign with a tight straight-sets win over Stan Wawrinka, edging a second-set tiebreak before finding his range. He then raised his level in the quarterfinals with an authoritative performance against Arthur Fils, combining strong serving with controlled baseline aggression. The Canadian followed that up with another efficient showing in the semifinals, underlining how comfortable he looks on this quicker indoor surface.
Indoor hard courts have generally brought out the best in Auger-Aliassime. He has enjoyed success in these conditions before, including deep runs and titles, thanks to a game built around a big serve and a forehand that can quickly take control of points. After a slightly uneven start to the season, marked by early exits and an injury-related retirement in Australia, this week has felt like a reset. His timing looks sharper, and he has been able to impose himself without overplaying.
Mannarino, meanwhile, has quietly put together an impressive run. The veteran Frenchman arrived in Montpellier looking to halt a difficult stretch of results, and he has done just that. Wins over Pedro Martinez Portero and Ugo Humbert set the tone before a gritty three-set comeback against Arthur Gea and Martin Damm in the quarterfinals. He then negotiated another tough semifinal against Martin Damm to reach one of his few home finals in recent years.
At 37, Mannarino continues to rely on his flat groundstrokes, slices, and variety to disrupt opponents’ rhythm. Indoors, where the ball stays low and moves through the court quickly, those skills are especially effective. His route to the final has required more problem-solving and resilience, but crowd support and his experience in these conditions have carried him through.
This final is a classic contrast. Mannarino will look to change pace and deny rhythm, but Auger-Aliassime’s cleaner ball-striking, stronger serve, and ability to finish points should give him the edge on this surface. His recent performances here suggest he is well placed to handle the tactical challenge.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 2
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – Imagn Images