We’re exactly three weeks away from the first metro radio ratings survey of the year, but already there’s much industry conjecture as to how the numbers will play out.
With a newly-networked show and other major lineup changes coming into the mix, Scott Thomson – AFTRS graduate and Manager of Universal NSW – believes we’ll start to see a trend towards a three-station breakaway in Sydney Breakfast.
Thomson recently sparked a passionate debate when he suggested it was time that stations like Smooth FM dropped their local call signs.
Thomson anticipates 2GB, KIIS and Smooth FM will move further away from the pack, when Survey 1 of 2026 lands on Thursday March 19.
With Nova and Gold having both launched new Breakfast shows this year, Thomson observes: “History tells us one thing pretty reliably: Breakfast changes usually hurt before they help.”
“When you change a long-running show, you don’t just ‘add’ listeners — you first lose some. Loyal listeners sample elsewhere, and it takes time to build new habits and bring new audiences across.”
“Nova, in particular, walked away from a 15-year run with Fitzy & Wippa.”
“That’s a huge reset.”
In his LinkedIn post, Thomson also suggests Gold faces a similar challenge with its networked Breakfast show.
“Christian O’Connell is a proven performer — but Sydney audiences don’t always embrace ‘imported’ shows quickly.”
“Meanwhile, 2GB, KIIS and Smooth FM all have established, familiar Breakfast products. In times of change, familiarity usually wins. They’re the natural beneficiaries of audience churn.”
“That’s why we’ll start to see them open a gap on the rest of the market.”
Currently, 2GB’s Ben Fordham dominates the state of play – #1 in Sydney Breakfast with a 14.9 share.
Smooth’s Bogart Torelli has Sydney’s #2 FM Breakfast show behind KIIS duo Kyle & Jackie O, increasing her share by 1.1% to 10.1 in the final metro survey of 2025.
Nova’s newly-installed Drive team of Fitzy & Wippa with Kate Ritchie rounded out the year as Sydney’s third most listened to Breakfast show, with a cume reach of 637,000.
Christian O’Connell finished off the year as Melbourne’s #1 FM Breakfast show with an 11% share, ahead of his show’s national expansion.
Images supplied.