NHL Betting Preview: Flyers vs Maple Leafs
The Philadelphia Flyers clash with the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:30 on Monday, March 2.
Over 6.5 Has to Be The Way Forward
The +108 looks too good to miss for our prediction. The Flyers and the Maple Leafs should be able to deliver on Over 6.5 to secure a return on investment.
9 Wins for Leafs in Last 10 H2H Encounters
Philadelphia Flyers beat Boston Bruins in their previous game, making it back-to-back victories. It was a 3-1 home win at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Travis Konecny, Jamie Drysdale and Sean Couturier scored one goal each. Goalie Daniel Vladar was red hot in the net, stopping 26 shots (.963).
Toronto Maple Leafs have lost on their last six home outings. In a recent game at Scotiabank Arena, they were turned over 5-2 by Ottawa Senators. Morgan Rielly and William Nylander each scored one goal.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The last encounter between the Leafs and the Flyers saw the former win. It was a 2-1 scoreline at Xfinity Mobile Arena. The Leafs have won five on the spin against the Flyers. They’ve also claimed 9 victories in the past 10 head-to-head encounters.
Starting Goalies
Dan Vladar (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
18-9-6
2.4
.907
0
23/24
8-9-2
3.61
.882
0
Joseph Woll (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
13-9-4
3.1
.906
2
23/24
12-11-1
2.93
.907
0
Philadelphia Flyers – Last 10 Games
4 wins, 4 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.7 goals from 22.8 shots on goal, with a 14.3% powerplay efficiency. The Flyers have been giving up 3.1 goals from 27.2 shots, averaging 2.8 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 96.4%.
Travis Konecny is the top points scorer with 13 points, 6 goals and 7 assists, with Matvei Michkov recording 7 points, 5 goals and 2 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Daniel Vladar have a 2.23 goal against average with a .916 save percentage.
Toronto Maple Leafs – Last 10 Games
The Leafs have 3 wins and 7 losses, averaging 2.6 goals from 28.5 shots on goal, with a 23.1% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 4.2 goals from 33.0 shots, averaging 2.9 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 89.7%.
The top points scorer is Auston Matthews with 9 points, 1 goal and 8 assists, while Max Domi is next best after having 8 points, 3 goals and 5 assists. Goalie Joseph Woll have a 3.77 GAA with a .889 SV%.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks
Get the edge with our Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs betting tips: a trusted match prediction, likely correct score outcome, key player prop picks and an expert-crafted bet builder.
Game Prediction
Our confident pick is that the teams will combine to go over the total goals line. The +108 that this outcome happens looks really attractive for this NHL encounter.
We put solid research behind every hockey prediction, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key NHL stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions
Key Flyers vs Maple Leafs stats:
The 6.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Flyers games on the road.The 6.5 line has been covered in 12 of the last 20 Flyers games on the road.The 6.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Maple Leafs games at home.The 6.5 line has been covered in 11 of the last 20 Maple Leafs games.The 6.5 line has been covered in the last 2 Maple Leafs games at home.Over 6.5 Probability
If you go by the best NHL sportsbooks, our pick has a 48.1% chance of landing a return. However, our research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
If you want to go Over on the Total at bigger odds, then you can combine this pick with other selections as part of a Bet Builder until you’re happy with the overall price.
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Our Game Prediction
Over 6.5 Goals @ +108
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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 1, 23:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Published 23:56, 01 March 2026
Player Prop Picks
Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs) has finished with at least one assist in 6 straight games. We can therefore place a Player Assists wager at an eye-catching -100 in the hope that our pick covers the line.
Latest Auston Matthews Player Prop Odds
Goals
Assists
Shots on Goal
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Leafs Moneyline Odds Suggest Victory
Toronto Maple Leafs are -133 favorites and that means a 57% chance of winning this game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Philadelphia Flyers are trading at +112.
There is a puck line of 1.5 and total goals has a line of 6.5. The beauty of Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. If you’re wanting to back Over 6.5, the odds are +108.
If you’re looking to place a National Hockey League wager, head to the top betting apps and explore the wide range of team props and game lines. Take your time to find the lines and odds that offer the best value.
Auston Matthews Favorite to Find the Net First
Favorite Auston Matthews is now available at +850 to be the First Goalscorer. You will find similar odds apply when it comes to him scoring the last goal.
Player Goals
Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)
Travis Konecny (Flyers)
William Nylander (Maple Leafs)
John Tavares (Maple Leafs)
Player Assists
William Nylander (Maple Leafs)
Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)
Travis Konecny (Flyers)
Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)
Player Shots
Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)
Travis Konecny (Flyers)
William Nylander (Maple Leafs)
John Tavares (Maple Leafs)
Micro Betting
You don’t have to wait for the final outcome when it comes to NHL micro betting. Instead, there’s the opportunity to wager on live lines which tend to be settled in a shorter space of time and the in-game odds are always changing.
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Team Stats
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Philadelphia Flyers Stats
Toronto Maple Leafs Stats
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games
+1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
+1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games on the road
-1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 2 of the last 10 games
-1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games
Game Totals: An average of 5.80 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 7.10 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.70 goals and allowed 3.10 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 3.80 goals in the last 10 games on the road
Game Totals: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 home games
Over 6.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.70 goals and allowed 4.20 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 3.60 goals in the last 10 home games
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.5
Shots: 22.8
Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
Penalties: 2.8
Empty Net Goals: 0.3
Penalty Minutes: 6.2
Blocks: 13
Faceoff Wins : 24.5
Hits: 25
Giveaways: 17.2
Takeaways: 4.3
Last 10 Games on the Road
Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 26.2
Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
Penalties: 4.2
Empty Net Goals: 0.2
Penalty Minutes: 9.6
Blocks: 9.9
Faceoff Wins : 20.6
Hits: 23
Giveaways: 14.5
Takeaways: 3.6
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 28.5
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 2.9
Empty Net Goals: 0.2
Penalty Minutes: 7.2
Blocks: 12.8
Faceoff Wins : 28.8
Hits: 20.8
Giveaways: 15.1
Takeaways: 5.2
Last 10 Home Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 26.8
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 3.6
Empty Net Goals: 0.2
Penalty Minutes: 9.2
Blocks: 11.7
Faceoff Wins : 30.6
Hits: 22.7
Giveaways: 13.7
Takeaways: 4.4
Starting Lineups
Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.
Expert Analysis by Paul Boucher
Senior NHL Analyst
About the Analyst
Paul Boucher is a Senior NHL Analyst and Head of the Ice Hockey Editorial Betting Panel with over 15 years of experience as a sports journalist and betting analyst. Based in Montreal, he provides first-hand insight through regular attendance at the Bell Centre, utilising advanced metrics to identify market value across key game lines, player props and same game parlays.
NHL Predictions Methodology
Our NHL analysis combines the latest team news, injury reports and line changes with recent form and market movement. We factor in situational analysis like home ice advantage and schedule spots. Metrics such as Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals (xG) and PDO are used to evaluate puck possession, shot quality, goaltending performance and special teams efficiency beyond the traditional box score.
Full Methodology & Data Sources
Where to Bet
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Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Mar 2, 07:38 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, confirmed lines and pairings, starting goaltenders, lineup changes, schedule context, key performance metrics and odds movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Ice Hockey Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our game predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
Important: Betting should be treated as entertainment and involves risk. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
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