45m agoSat 19 Jul 2025 at 6:52amHello, world, Tasmania is voting AGAIN

Hello from ABC News in Tasmania.

We are saddling up for another night of vote counting, tears, joy and, hopefully, a result.

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8m agoSat 19 Jul 2025 at 7:29am

What part will the stadium play?

David says: The Devils and the stadium influenced my vote. I believe in our team and our ability to create a great stadium. My vote and my family’s votes all went to Liberals or David O’Byrne.

The proposed Hobart stadium at Macquarie Point is supported by both the Liberals and the Labor party, with the Greens against the project and some Independents also opposed.

The AFL has repeatedly said a 23,000-seat roofed stadium at Macquarie Point is a non-negotiable contractual obligation if the state wants to have a team, the Devils, in the national competition.

Early in July, the ABC spoke to a number of voters who said the stadium would play a role in how they vote, with some saying they’ll change who they favour because of their views on it.

10m agoSat 19 Jul 2025 at 7:27amWhen will we know the winner?

Tim asks: Will any seats be called this evening or is this expected to be a waiting game

The Hare-Clark electoral system means that is fairly easy for us to call the first four or five seats in every electorate.

We can usually allocate the first seats very quickly, based on the number of quotas achieved by each group on the ballot paper.

But the final seats can take significantly longer.

If there’s a clear winner or a clear largest party we may know that tonight.

If it’s a tighter battle between the major parties it may take quite a while longer to know.

And if we’re in a minority government situation where every member of parliament matters and the final seats are critical to determining the next government, it could take two weeks for the next government to emerge.

14m agoSat 19 Jul 2025 at 7:23am

Party games ahead?

Elections analyst Kevin Bonham spoke with ABC Radio Hobart’s Leon Compton on Friday and says polling suggests there could be a “number of casualties within parties” of candidates “losing to their own ticket mates”.

19m agoSat 19 Jul 2025 at 7:18amNo preferences are being counted tonight

Every single vote you see reported tonight will be a first preference vote.

Tonight we get all the votes that were cast today and some (but not all) of the pre-polls.

Tomorrow we should get first preference counts for the remaining pre-polls.

On Monday we’re expecting a small number of votes to be reported, but we won’t see the bulk of the postal votes until mid-way through next week.

If there are still seats in doubt after that (and there probably will be) we’ll be waiting on the distribution of preferences to occur.

The commission can only start counting preferences after all the votes have been returned and checked for formality.

That distribution will get underway in around 10 days.

Last year, Craig Garland’s election was only confirmed two weeks after polling day.

We’re likely to have some candidates having to wait patiently and nervously for just as long this year.

26m agoSat 19 Jul 2025 at 7:11amWhat do the latest polls say

Of course, the old saying of ‘the only poll that matters is the election’, applies here, but YouGov‘s final public poll on the Tasmanian state election, released on Friday night, found:

The Liberals, with 31 per cent of the vote, leading Labor on 30 per cent and the Greens on 16 per centA record non-major party vote of 39 per centA hung parliament, with both parties short of a majority, as being “certain”Both Jeremy Rockcliff and Dean Winter have “high negative satisfaction ratings”55 per cent prefer Labor’s Dean Winter as premier “in the event of no clear winner”A state-owned insurance company has 41 per cent support and 29 per cent opposition

The YouGov polling has also found the vote share for each party, compared to the 2024 election, is as follows:

Labor is 30 per cent, up 1 per cent from 2024Liberals are at 31 per cent, down 4.9 per centGreens are at 16 per cent up 3 per centIndependents are at 20 per centNationals are at 2 per centShooters Fisher Farmers are at 1 per cent

37m agoSat 19 Jul 2025 at 7:00am

Comments are ON

Feel free to make jokes at Tasmania’s expense, ask questions about the Hare-Clark voting system, the planned stadium, salmon farming, warm cider and the election by sending in a comment.

We will do our best to feature them across the evening and hopefully provide answers.

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