Health Check: The health stocks in the firing line, and those eyeing a promotion

Telix and Pro Medicus are in the firing line in the lead up to the next index reweighting. Pic: Getty Images

The upcoming S&P/ASX index reweightings mean likely promotions for 4D Medical and ALS Ltd, but performance reviews for Pro Medicus and Telix
Broker says top-end-of-town healthcare valuations are “increasingly attractive”
Intelicare shares surge up to 60% on ‘biggest client deal to date’

Who is about to be fired and who is in for a promotion?

Broker Canaccord has made an early call on what shares will be included in the key S&P ASX indices, when the bourse reweights them on June 19.

For healthcare stocks, the firm delivers mixed news.

Lung imager 4D Medical (ASX:4DX) “probably” will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 index.

But fellow bodily prober ProMedicus (ASX:PME) looks set to be turfed from the top 50 ranking.

4D Medical’s ascension should not surprise, given the company’s 1700% share surge over the past nine months.

The market overseers ejected 4D from the broader all ordinaries index in September last year. That was awful timing, as 4D’s share run was just gathering pace.

Pro Medicus shares have lost more than half their value over the last six months, but the company still bears a $14.3 billion market cap.

(Index inclusion is based not just on size).

Lab testing giant ALS (ASX:ALQ) should take the place of Pro Medicus in the top 50 pantheon.

Meanwhile, Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) could “possibly” tumble from the top 100 cohort, if its shares continue to underperform.

Who’s in and out

For the record, the firm’s broader probable ASX 200 inclusions are ‘khaki’ stock Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) and gold diggers Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) and Kingsgate Consolidated (ASX:KCN).

No surprises there.

These promotions are likely to be at the expense of discounted online retailer Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) , travel plays SiteMinder (ASX:SDR) and Web Travel Group (ASX:WEB) and the hero-to-zero Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG)

Uranium miner Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) is a probable S&P/ASX 100 inclusion, at the expense of the hapless AMP (ASX:AMP).

The bourse will announce the rebalance on June 5.

Healthcare valuations are compelling, says Wilsons

After a “challenging period” for healthcare, valuations have become “increasingly attractive”.

So says Canaccord-owned Wilsons Advisory, which notes the ASX 100 healthcare stocks trade at two-decade lows.

“Most companies are also trading at multi-year low earnings multiples and well below historical averages, despite generally maintaining compelling growth outlooks”.

The February 2026 reporting season, “exhibited a wide dispersion of outcomes, both in earnings delivery relative to market expectations and subsequent share price performance”.

Analysts have pared their earnings expectations for “index heavyweights” such as CSL, Cochlear (ASX:COH) , Sigma Healthcare (ASX:SIG) and Pro Medicus.

Wilsons notes pockets of strength, such as sleep apnoea plays ResMed (ASX:RMD) and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (ASX:FPH) . These stocks remains in “ongoing earnings upgrade cycles.”

Cutting to the chase, Ansell (ASX:ANN) and CSL look to be the ‘cheapest’ health care stocks. They trade on forward price earnings (PE) multiples of 13.6 and 13.7 times respectively.

But relative to companies’ average PE multiples over the last five years, CSL looks to be the ‘cheapest’. The stock trades on a 54% discount to this historic norm.

Pro Medicus and Cochlear are on hefty PE discounts of 41% and 42% respectively.

But is CSL cheap for a reason?

The $68 billion prince of plasma is safe in the ranks of the ASX 200, but research house Morningstar warns of “structural” margin pressures.

CSL’s half year numbers showed its gross margin on immunoglobulin products – a key category – fell 6 percentage points year-on-year, to 57%.

CSL’s overall plasma margins grew 10 basis points to 51%, but Morningstar opines this was not as strong as expected.

The firm lowers its gross margin expectation to 52%, from 58% previously.

“We now expect minimal gross margin expansion as we think most [of CSL’s vaunted] cost savings will be offset by price competition on industry efficiency gains.”

Some investors fret about the emergence of newer therapies. This could leave CSL “overinvested” in plasma collection and fractionation capacity.

CSL’s haemophilia franchise faces competitive pressure from Roche’s drug Hemlibra, which offers more convenient delivery.

However, Morningstar is bullish on overall market demand for immunoglobulins and “plasma market resilience”.

The firm cuts its “fair value” estimate of the stock by 22%, to $210.

But that’s still almost 50% above the stock’s current value and pretty much in line with other broker appraisals.

Intelicare beds down $8.5m nursing home deal

Perth-based nursing home IT provider InteliCare (ASX:ICR) is today’s healthcare hero after signing its biggest client deal to date.

The $8.5 million, five-year “landmark contract and partnership” is with Victorian nursing home operator, Mecwacare.

Mecwacare will use Intelicare’s AI-enabled nursing call platform and other services across its 22 facilities and 1600 residents.

The deal follows the success of a pilot program at Mecwacare’s Trescowthick Centre in Melbourne, which “met or exceeded” all eleven success criteria.

Intelicare executive director Tim Chapman dubs the deal as a “defining milestone” for the company.

The company pitches the deal as a strategic partnership, by which the parties will collaborate on “further innovation and development initiatives”.

Intelicare shares spiked up to 60% before profit takers swooped.