A good day for a breakaway and the most accessible stage of the week.
Stage 5 Wrap: a fast stage with a solid breakaway but Visma-LAB chased hard and last helper Victor Campenaerts led out Jonas Vingegaard on the hardest climb of the day so the Dane could attack with 21km to go. Nobody could follow him, Lenny Martinez was close but as soon as the climbing was done Martinez and others floundered and the Dane was away for a second stage win and after yesterday’s wardrobe malfunction he looked good in the yellow jersey and now leads the mountains competition and sits in second place on the points competition behind Luke Lamperti. It’s pleasing to see Vingegaard being this audacious but let’s hope the Giro has more suspense.
The “chase” behind was amusing if only because there was little pursuit and instead the riders were taking turns to attack. Kévin Vauquelin was keen to make up for lost time but it showed, he was making a lot of moves and almost paid for this as he struggled to follow others.
The Route: 179km and 2,100m of vertical gain. It’s similar to 2020 when the race came and toured the Luberon mountains before a finish in Apt but a different route altogether. None of the climbs are tricky by themselves.
The Finish: the climb to Saignon with two difficult kilometres. It’s almost the finish line as 20 seconds for a lone rider over the top could be sufficient to win.
The Contenders: the archetypal winner today is a fast-finisher who can handle some climbs and the final climb . Whether they infiltrate the break or use their teams to control the race depends on their squads.
Luke Lamperti (EF) fits the bill here but will be challenged by the climbs. Biniam Girmay (NSN) likewise and while he’s not had a result so far he might find today’s course less chaotic. Dorian Godon (Ineos) and Orluis Aular (Movistar) could be better on the climbs, likewise Max Kanter (XDS-Astana). Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) is a contender but a rare winner.
The Van Dijcke brothers impressed on the stage to Uchon and Tim was the better but there’s not much in it. Andreas Leknessund (Uno-X) finds roads to suit. Victor Campenaerts (Visma-LAB) looks in great form. UAE don’t have many options left but it could be Ivo Oliveira‘s time.
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Leknessund, Godon, Aular, Kanter
Campenaerts, Vacek, Oliveira, Lamperti
Weather: sunshine and 16°C, with a gentle breeze of 10km/h from the SW.
TV: two hours of live coverage with the finish at 5.00pm CET.
Postcard from Apt
Paris-Nice returns to Apt for the third time, completing the superstitious French phrase of jamais deux sans trois or “never two without three”. That’s fitting for today, Friday 13th. Often associated with bad luck, in France it can go both ways. Lottery operator FDJ gets a boost in sales today. While the probability of a Friday 13th is 1.72 times per year, 2026 has three: last month, today and one in November too.
Superstition has its place in pro cycling. As irrational as it might be, it makes sense in a domain where random events occur. You might crash because you went into a corner too fast; but often it’s because someone swerves, someone else brakes, and there’s a pile-up 40 places down the line. There’s been a lot of work to minimise random events and master the details – once upon a time team manager Antonin Magne would use a pendulum to dowse rider ability, today we have power meters – but it remains a fundamentally risky sport. Many a rider has their pre-race rituals.
The number 13 is often pinned on upside down in a race. In the 2023 Tour de France it didn’t exist with UAE having numbers 11-12 and 14-19. But only the 13 gets this, other unlucky numbers like 17 in Italy or 4 in Japan don’t seem to get the same treatment.
Coincidental or not the last time Paris-Nice came to Apt it was in 2020 and on Friday 13 too. Tiesj Benoot won that day but if there was luck involved it did not show. His team Søren Kragh Andersen had been up road with Romain Bardet when Benoot blasted across in the finale and then rode away for the win. It was the kind of tactical coup Sunweb would deploy in the Tour de France later that year to take three stage wins. The team is branded Picnic-PostNL and need some luck as they’re the only team without a win this season, they’re last among their peers on the UCI rankings by some way and they were the slowest in the team time trial earlier this week. Maybe today?