Believe it or not, Major League Baseball’s playoffs have decent turnover. Despite a few teams that have turned into perennial contenders, there’s plenty of change in the field every October. To wit: 

In 2025, five of the 12 playoff teams hadn’t made it in 2024. In 2024, there were six teams in the field that didn’t make it in 2023.In 2023, the number was six, again, of the 12. 

The 2022 season was the first with the expanded field of 12 playoff teams. In this format, as you can see, we get close to half the field turning over every year. It’s a small sample and not a hard-and-fast rule, obviously, but assuming there’s similar turnover this season, which teams might join the playoff field? 

Let’s take a look at some possible party-crashers with a dark horse for each league and then a top five that I’ve ranked subjectively, in order of best chance to make the playoffs.

Odds via Caesars

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AL dark horse: Athletics (+425 to make the playoffs)

There are plenty of concerns with the pitching staff here and that’s why the A’s aren’t ranked in the top five. There is a world, though, where Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Aaron Civale, Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales do what is needed from a rotation with a high-powered offense. And, really, the A’s played like a playoff team for most of last season, other than a wretched, season-ruining stretch where they lost 20 of 21 from May 14 to June 4. And, man, this offense looks like so much fun.

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NL dark horse: Pittsburgh Pirates (+275)

The inverse to the A’s, the Pirates are here due to pitching. I don’t believe enough in this offense to be more aggressive with the Pirates, but some of the projection systems are bullish (FanGraphs has them in second place, only two games behind the Cubs, for example, in the NL Central). Paul Skenes is a hell of a place to start with Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft following. Lots will come down to Bubba Chandler and the returning-from-surgery Jared Jones. 

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5. Texas Rangers (+120)

The rotation’s upside is the best in baseball. They need some good fortune, but there’s so much talent in Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, MacKenzie Gore, Jack Leiter and whoever ends up as the No. 5. Let’s say the offense sees a breakout from Wyatt Langford up into the MVP-caliber tier while there’s growth from Evan Carter. Let’s say Corey Seager stays on the field for 150 games. Things really could line up and break right for the Rangers in a possibly mediocre AL West. 

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4. Baltimore Orioles (-110)

The Orioles have a much tougher road than the teams we’ve already discussed and No. 3 in these rankings. They play in the AL East, which means they have to deal with the Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. There are no bad teams in there and three teams that made the playoffs last season, in addition to one that went 77-85 despite having a brutal schedule without an actual home. I bring this all up because I wanted to say that even if I thought the Orioles were the best team on this list, they were ranked lower due to everything working against them.

I do think they’ll be much better than last season. The offense will be stronger with the additions of Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, plus better production from holdovers like Jackson Holliday (once he’s 100%), Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman (maybe? Hopefully?). The rotation is vastly improved now with Trevor Rogers having found himself and Kyle Bradish fully recovered from surgery. Chris Bassitt and Shane Baz join Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer, providing good depth behind the possible pair of aces.

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3. Kansas City Royals (+130)

After a playoff season in 2024, the Royals took a step back to 82-80 last year. I don’t see the Guardians repeating and wouldn’t be worried about the Twins or White Sox, leaving the Tigers as the chief competition for the Royals in the AL Central. This could be a well-rounded ballclub in Kansas City. The offense surrounds superstar Bobby Witt Jr. with Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez. Jac Caglianone is a breakout candidate, as is Carter Jensen. The rotation gets a significant boost this season if Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic can avoid the injuries they dealt with last year. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are quality veterans and Noah Cameron showed himself to be a fine rotation guy last season. The bullpen has multiple quality late-inning arms, too. 

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2. Atlanta Braves (-190)

I initially had the Braves at No. 1, but they’ve taken on plenty of question marks in the last month. Jurickson Profar was popped for PEDs and is suspended for the whole season, while the rotation saw Spencer Schwellenbach go down with an elbow injury. There’s already concern there with Chris Sale’s age and whether or not Spencer Strider can regain his 2022-23 form. Joey Wentz, who had soared up the depth chart during spring training, will miss the entire year with a torn ACL. Still, I’m expecting a huge bounce-back on offense with Ronald Acuña Jr. back for a full season with Matt Olson. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley are fully capable of a resurgence. The back-end of the bullpen is awesome with Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias, too. 

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1. New York Mets (-280)

The Mets had the best record in baseball last season as late as June and then fell apart and missed the playoffs. They revamped things in the offseason. Behind possibly the best 1-2 start in baseball in Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, they now have Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien. Luis Robert Jr. has also been added and, while he’s been frustrating for much of his career, the expectations for him at the bottom of a productive lineup are much different than trying to carry a bad one. The group of mid-rotation starters from much of last season now has Freddy Peralta and what looks like an ace in Nolan McLean at the top. It’ll be interesting to see if Devin Williams and Luke Weaver can bounce back in Queens after rough seasons in the Bronx, but every ingredient is here for a strong Mets’ playoff team.