Record two-party preferred result for Labor
Labor is forecast to achieve a 59–41 lead on a two-party preferred basis against both the Liberals and One Nation, a +4.4% swing in its favour.
This would represent Labor’s highest-ever two-party preferred result in South Australia, despite its primary vote being 2 points lower than at the last state election.
In Adelaide, Labor’s dominance is even more pronounced, leading the Liberals 64% to 36% on a 2PP basis.
Liberals face historic decline
The Liberal Party’s projected 19% primary vote would be its lowest result in any state or federal election since the Coalition was formed, falling below previous lows in the 2021 Western Australian election and the 1998 Queensland election.
Voter retention is also a major challenge, with only 55% of those who voted Liberal in the last federal election intending to support the party at the state level with 29% now voting One nation and 10% Labor. Notably, the Liberals lost every seat in Adelaide at the last federal election.
One Nation surges to second place
One Nation is projected to secure 22% of the primary vote, placing it ahead of the Liberals for the first time in South Australia and matching its best-ever state result (Queensland, 1998).
Support is strongest outside Adelaide, where One Nation leads with 27%, ahead of Labor (24%) and the Liberals (21%).
In these regions, the contest becomes highly competitive, with a three-candidate preferred split of Labor 38%, One Nation 34%, and Liberals 24%.
Feeling unrepresented driving One Nation support
Among One Nation voters, the primary motivation is dissatisfaction with mainstream politics:
52% say they vote One Nation because they feel unrepresented by major partiesOnly 10% cite the party’s policies as their main reason