On Jan. 10, the Colorado Avalanche held a 12-point lead over the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild in the Central Division.

Things have changed a bit, to say the least.

After the Stars took down the Avalanche in a shootout Wednesday, that Central lead is down to just two points. Technically, it should be considered a three-point lead, as the Avalanche hold the tiebreaker with six more regulation wins. Considering how little runway there is in the regular season, it’s highly unlikely the Stars catch them in that department.

Still, it’s now closer than anyone thought it would be two months ago. Here’s how the Avalanche got to this point.

Injuries

Up until the new year, the Avalanche were a healthy team, which played a role in them steamrolling the rest of the NHL. The only roster players who really missed any time were Sam Girard and Mackenzie Blackwood, and Scott Wedgewood’s play to start the season offset the absence of Blackwood.

Since the calendar flipped to 2026, the injury bug has hit the Avalanche. Gabriel Landeskog has only played eight their last 28 games, and core players like Devon Toews and Artturi Lehkonen have missed substantial time during that same timeframe. Colorado’s record with and without Landeskog has been well documented. But each time he’s been out of the lineup, it’s been at the same time as another core player, so it’s not exactly a controlled variable in this research experiment. There’s no doubt his presence is missed both on and off the ice, though.

Colorado Avalanche left wing Artturi Lehkonen (62) in the third period of an NHL hockey game Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Injuries have made a difference. But when Dallas continues to win without Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz in its lineup, it’s difficult to blame injuries.

The Stars are also really good

For the first month or two of the season, it was tough to get a read on the Stars. They were winning a lot of games because of their power play, but at one point, they were a bottom-five possession team in the NHL.

You can’t say that anymore.

Since Jan. 1, the Stars are the best 5-on-5 defensive team in the NHL and it hasn’t been close. They’ve been a middle-of-the-road offensive team, but when you give the opposing team absolutely nothing, you don’t need to score a ton of goals to win. Their defensive game is why they’re second in the NHL in expected goals-for percentage in 2026.

It’s tough luck for the Avalanche that the team chasing them atop the standings happens to be in their division because the NHL’s absurd playoff system makes it matter even more. But credit Dallas. That’s a good team that hasn’t allowed the Avalanche run away with the Central. Although Colorado hasn’t maintained the same pace it started the season with, the Avalanche haven’t been terrible. They’re a middle-of-the-road team in 2026 when you look at points. It’s just that Dallas has been borderline unstoppable.

Colorado Avalanche center Jack Drury (18) battles Dallas Stars defenseman Tyler Myers (57) for the puck behind the Stars goal during the first period Wednesday, March 18, 2026, at Ball Arena in Denver. (The Gazette, Christian Murdock)

Too many players slumping

The aforementioned injuries has put a bigger spotlight on everyone else in the lineup. Unfortunately, some players have scoring slumps at the worst possible time.

Jack Drury hasn’t scored a goal in 17 games. Brock Nelson has been stuck on 30 goals for 11 games now. Valeri Nichushkin has looked better of late, but he had a stretch to start 2026 where he potted just one goal in 20 games. Ross Colton has just three goals since Thanksgiving. Gavin Brindley and Zakhar Bardakov don’t play a ton, but neither has chipped in much offensively for three months now.

Colorado also relies heavily on its defense chipping in offensively, and that production has dipped. Sam Malinski hasn’t scored a goal since Dec. 11 and Devon Toews’ overall offensive production has dropped off in a big way this season.

Martin Necas and Nathan MacKinnon have held up their end of the bargain, but too often it’s been just the top line producing when the team was getting production from all parties to start the season.

Dallas Stars right wing Nathan Bastian (11) celebrates after scoring past Colorado Avalanche goaltender Scott Wedgewood (41) during the second period Wednesday, March 18, 2026, at Ball Arena in Denver. (The Gazette, Christian Murdock)

Special teams

While the power play has taken the brunt of the heat — for good reason — the penalty kill has not been nearly as effective as it was to start the season.

While the Avalanche still own a top-five penalty kill when looking at the season as a whole, it’s been slipping. Since Jan. 1, they’re 17th in the NHL on the penalty kill. Since the NHL returned from the Olympics, they’re 22nd in the league. Colorado’s power play has been better since the Olympics, converting on 21.1% of its opportunities, but that’s still only good for 19th in the league during that span. Shorthanded goals allowed continues to be an issue, as they still lead the league with 12 allowed.

Colorado still controls its own destiny when it comes to winning the division and avoiding a tougher first-round matchup, but the margin for error is now much smaller.

What I’m hearing

It doesn’t sound like Erik Johnson fixed his teeth just because he was looking to get into television. “I just didn’t want to be that guy that’s 40 years old and ‘Oh, he’s the hockey player with the missing teeth.’ I had that schtick for 15 years and I didn’t want to just kind of be that guy,” he told The Denver Gazette. He also told me what he learned from the late Peter McNab that he’s trying to bring to broadcasts. “With Pete, he really explained the game well. He didn’t just tell you what he was seeing, he was trying to teach people. That’s an important aspect. Being able to teach the game without sounding too basic for the die-hard fan is something that I picked up from him. Teaching is just as important as saying what you see.”

Nelson went through a stretch where it seemed like every puck was going in the net. The opposite is happening at the moment. “Frustrating, for sure, when you’re not contributing and even more so when games are going the way for the team,” he said. “Things can change in a hurry and have a different conversation, so (I’ll) just continue to push.”

What I’m seeing

Things can change in an instant with injuries. Based on how he’s been moving at recent practices, I’d be surprised if Logan O’Connor isn’t back in the lineup soon. He’s moving really well and has been whipping the puck around. Jared Bednar said there’s a chance all four of their injured wingers could return on this upcoming road trip, but O’Connor and Gabriel Landeskog look like they might be ahead of Ross Colton and Artturi Lehkonen on the road to recovery. Colton hasn’t been seen skating since his injury. Lehkonen still looks to be holding back on his shot at practice.

Injuries have forced the Avalanche to use Nazem Kadri on the wing, but that should end when some of these wingers return. That’s a good thing. Kadri doesn’t look comfortable playing on the wing, and I don’t really blame him. He’s been a center his entire career. Getting him back at his natural position can only mean good things.

What I’m thinking

The NHL playoffs start April 18, but you can bet the Avalanche will lobby to not play on that first day. Their final regular season game is April 16 and it’s the last game of the night, starting at a ridiculous 8:30 p.m in Denver. Considering they had to play the most games after the Olympic break, it would make sense for them to get an extra day off before their first playoff game.

Bobby McMann was one of the names the Avalanche were rumored to pursue at the deadline, and he’s started hot in Seattle with six points in three games. I’ve liked Nic Roy’s game, though. He’s being asked to do more because of the current injury situation. Once he settles into a third-line role, he seems like a player who will be important in the postseason.