This was going to be a franchise-altering offseason for the Toronto Maple Leafs, no matter what, with the way things have gone this season.

But the possibility of Auston Matthews maybe not wanting to stay with two years still left on his contract? That now looms over everything.

Matthews, who had knee surgery last week, deciding he no longer wants to be a Leaf would legitimately have earthquake potential. The foundations of the franchise might crumble. It would be ugly.

The Leafs would be losing their captain and all-time leading goal scorer only one summer after Mitch Marner decided he wanted to go elsewhere. Two franchise icons (at least) gone in back-to-back offseasons would be as bad as it gets — the kind of thing that MLSE president and CEO Keith Pelley might not be able to come back from.

It speaks to what an awful place the Leafs are in that this — a Matthews trade — is even a possibility.

Matthews has a full no-movement clause in his contract, giving him full veto power on any trade. Were he to decide to seek a future elsewhere, he would presumably grant the Leafs a short list of teams, a handful perhaps, that he would be willing to accept a trade to.

Those teams, knowing Matthews’ power in the process, could be choosy about what they wanted to give up.

With their captain and best player walking away, the Leafs might well eye the best package of futures they can get — some combination of young players and/or prospects and draft picks.

Regardless of what they got, how well they did in other words, in a franchise-changing transaction, the optics of such a move would be devastating: Arguably the best player in franchise history telling the world he doesn’t believe he can win any longer in Toronto.

Telling the world he doesn’t believe in the Leafs, in other words.

What would that mean for William Nylander? Would the soon-to-be 30-year-old, still with six years left on his deal, want to stick around with Marner and Matthews both gone? Would the Leafs want him to stick around in that case? And what would a trade like that look like, given that Nylander too holds a full no-movement clause in his contract?

Auston Matthews’ departure could have a domino effect on the rest of the roster. (Morgan Tencza / Imagn Images)

More dominoes could fall from there.

Would John Tavares want to finish his career with the Leafs if Matthews and/or Nylander went elsewhere? Would he want to continue his Stanley Cup pursuit on a new team? (Tavares has a full no-movement clause in place in his contract until the summer of 2027.)

What about Jake McCabe, who, after a whole lot of losing with the Buffalo Sabres and Chicago Blackhawks, chose to sign long term in the winning environment he thought he had in Toronto?

How deep would the roster gutting go?

Without Matthews and the prospect of competing for anything anytime soon, the Leafs might wonder whether they should even hang onto Matthew Knies or cash him in now with so much term (five years) left on his deal.

The 2026-27 roster could get pretty bleak fast, like the one the team dressed in Ottawa on Saturday, but likely worse.

Making matters, well, worse: The Leafs might not own their first round pick in 2027 and perhaps, 2028, so likely no end-of-season reward for mediocrity.

Maybe the franchise returns a haul of intriguing stuff in those trades. Regardless, it would get dark in Toronto, darker perhaps than even a decade ago.

There would be even more empty seats in Scotiabank Arena and fewer people watching on TV.

Hope would be hard to find. A lost decade might be inevitable.

Which is why the Leafs must find the leader with the vision to keep Matthews around, for a little while longer, at least.

In all likelihood, the ongoing debate over which direction the franchise should take this offseason — rebuild or retool — may not actually be determined by Pelley or even the incoming (or not) president and/or general manager.

It’s Matthews who might well determine next steps for the Leafs, whether they pursue what hope remains or head out into the scary unknown.

Five things I like, don’t like, or find interesting about the Leafs right now

1. Find it hard to believe that one person can get this turned around in the right direction? Consider how quickly things changed for the Florida Panthers after Bill Zito took over as general manager in 2020.

The Panthers were either missing the playoffs or losing in the first round in the pre-Zito days. Then, Zito came along and immediately started making moves that mattered.

Within a year, the Panthers had acquired Carter Verhaeghe, Mason Marchment, Brandon Montour, Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart, among other winning acquisitions such as plucking Gustav Forsling off waivers from Chicago.

Zito took a relative chance on Paul Maurice as head coach after Maurice quit the Winnipeg Jets and continued a run of sterling moves in the years that followed.

The results came with it.

The Panthers won the Presidents’ Trophy by Year 2 of Zito’s tenure, lost in the Stanley Cup Final in Year 3 and then won the whole thing in the two years after that.

General manager Bill Zito turned the Panthers into NHL juggernauts in short order. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

2. There is a lot of blame to go around for the Leafs, losers in 12 of 14, right now. I’m not sure Joseph Woll deserves a lot of it, certainly not from the head coach.

Woll has faced nearly 33 shots per 60 minutes this season, the most among the more than 60 NHL goaltenders who’ve logged at least 1,000 minutes.

The second most in that department? Anthony Stolarz.

NHL’s busiest goaltenders this season

For context, consider that Brandon Bussi, whom the Leafs faced from the Carolina Hurricanes’ net on Friday, is seeing under 24 shots per 60 minutes this season.

In spite of that workload, Woll is right around the top 20 goaltenders with a solid, and slightly above average, .904 save percentage. He’s stopped nearly 13 goals above expected.

3. One of the tricky things about the Leafs not making a change behind the bench recently: Craig Berube isn’t coaching with an eye on the team’s future, presumably because he’s uncertain of his own future.

Some recent examples: Jacob Quillan, a project of unknown upside, has yet to play more than 10 minutes since he was called up around the trade deadline. Can Quillan give the Leafs anything next season? It’s hard to know with how he’s being used. Nick Robertson’s ice time hasn’t budged at all in recent weeks, meanwhile, and Matias Maccelli, someone the organization needs to make a decision on this summer (like Robertson, he’s a pending RFA), logged 10 minutes on Saturday following a stretch that saw him record 14 points in 15 games.

Jacob Quillan has appeared in 13 games for the Maple Leafs this season. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)

4. An only mildly wacky thought: Given the team’s long-term needs, why not get an actual look at Nylander at centre during the final 11 games?

We know that Berube isn’t a fan of Nylander in the middle and it’s entirely possible that Nylander wouldn’t be up for such a change at this point in the year, not to mention the series of aborted attempts in the past. If the team was thinking ahead to next season, though, and using these games for anything useful they can think of, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to see what Nylander looks like there, just in case.

A Nylander who can (maybe) play centre would be helpful to the Leafs.

In the event that Matthews wants to stay, the Leafs will have a glaring hole to fill at centre — and second-line centre in particular. Could Nylander be that guy? I have no idea. Better to give him an actual run of games there over Max Domi if he’s up for it.

5. It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for Easton Cowan.

One thing I’ve tried to keep in mind in light of that: This is his first season out of junior. He has played only two games for the Toronto Marlies to this point and will turn 21 in May. Growing pains (lost board battles, puck management issues, etc.) were inevitable.

I think he’s done more than all right, given his own circumstances along with those of the team.

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, NHL EDGE, PuckPedia and Evolving Hockey