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Drama down in 10th – Verstappen at risk. Hulkenberg is the man in 11th. But at the top, Leclerc goes fastest!
Russell is down in sixth after the first runs. Out on new rubber, he comes three 10ths down on Piastri – all lost in the last sector. His rear tyres are proving problematic.
Bortoleto up to third, new tyres doing their job. Gasly and Hadjar knock Verstappen down to eighth. That becomes 10th after Piastri goes fastest on his new rubber and Norris comes home too.
Antonelli will be first through: 1:27.774 – Russell is 0.343 slower and is soon pipped by Leclerc. Hamilton fourth.
The Mercedes and the Ferraris are out in Q2.
Bearman is the Q1 disappointment at one end, at the other it’s Norris. The world champion managed only eighth, beaten by the Audis of Hülkenberg and Bortoleto. The top five? Leclerc, Russell, Antonelli, Piastri and Hamilton.
Updated at 02.35 EDT
We have our elimination list: Albon, Bearman, Perez, Bottas, Alonso and Stroll. A surprise blow for Bearman, having qualified 12th and 10th in the previous two races.
Honda’s engine may not be working well for Aston Martin but no surprise to see support at Suzuka – and also for Alonso. Photograph: Kim Kyung-Hoon/ReutersShare
Updated at 02.25 EDT
Here comes the Briton … and he is just 0.052 behind Leclerc.
Top six in the pits – that group does not include Russell.
Albon, Sainz, Bottas, Perez, Stroll and Alonso in the drop zone. No surprises there.
Hamilton third fastest, behind Antonelli … while Leclerc moves ahead of them all. Good signs for Ferrari.
Ferarri driver Charles Leclerc is fastest early in qualifying for the Formula One Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka. Photograph: Andy Hone/LAT ImagesShare
Updated at 02.30 EDT
Russell reports an aerodynamic problem, likely caused by tyre temperature.
Updated at 02.12 EDT
And Antonelli goes fastest, by 0.043 – while Russell is half a second down in fifth. Hmm.
Hamilton can only split the McLarens, while Leclerc beats Piastri by 0.360. But here come Mercedes.
Piastri is out and goes fastest through the early sectors. He has had more laps from Norris, for technical-hitch reasons – and it is showing. 130.438 for the Australian, the Briton two tenths back.
Liam Lawson comes in at 131.7. He is tipped to make it to Q3 for Racing Bulls, which would be a huge step up for the New Zealander. Teammate Arvid Lindblad goes a 10th faster.
Updated at 02.05 EDT
We’re off … The first cars trundling out for their warm-up laps.
It’s not all about the drivers, of course. Here’s Princess Akiko meeting the Haas principal, Ayao Komatsu.
Princess meets principal. Photograph: Simon Galloway/LAT ImagesShare
Less than five minutes to the off. Poor, cash-strapped F1 has not been able to update the season graphic to remove Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, or else is leaving them on out of solidarity.
Updated at 01.57 EDT
Bernie Collins on Sky is analysing the theoretical best times of the top 10, and there are no surprises on the notional front row, with Russell 0.021 behind Antonelli. But there is more than half a second back to Leclerc in third, leading the Ferrari + McLaren quartet, and Verstappen is in 10th, behind Liam Lawson, who a year ago was demoted from Red Bull to Racing Bulls for this race after struggling in the role of the Dutchman’s sidekick.
Just what has changed this season. Here’s our graphic guide to it all.
At the back of the field, the Aston Martins of Lance Stroll and new dad Fernando Alonso were more than four seconds slower than Antonelli. They were close to a second behind the Cadillacs of Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Pérez, so even if they find some reliability they are practically competing in a different sport to the front row.
What of the rest, starting with the orange elephant in the room?
Max Verstappen, fresh from banishing our Giles Richards from a press conference, is still complaining about the new rules. He is not alone in this – and the powers that be have tweaked regulations at Suzuka to reduce the amount of lifting – but Red Bull’s four-time world champion is the loudest, most famous, least restrained voice. He was 1.548 down on Antonelli in FP3, beaten by Nico Hülkenberg’s Audi. There is surely no way that Verstappen will claim a fifth straight Suzuka pole.
Incidentally, Verstappen’s busman’s holiday to GT3 at the Nürburgring did not quite go to plan. He took pole and the chequered flag, but wound up empty-handed.
FP3, though, was a Mercedes show: Antonelli first, with Russell 0.254 back – and then more than half a second to Leclerc. Piastri split the Ferraris, beating Hamilton by 0.019, with Norris sixth.
How has the weekend gone so far for the other frontrunners?
First free practice was a Mercedes one-two, with Antonelli second by 0.026sec, with the McLarens of Norris and Piastri just behind. There was more encouragement for the constructors’ champions in FP2, with Piastri going fastest. McLaren were quick to say they expected Mercedes and Ferrari to be out in front once the action became competitive but, in the context of Norris’s run to fifth in Melbourne being the only full-race action the team have done this season, this was at least encouraging. Charles Leclerc was the faster of the Ferraris in the first two sessions, ahead of Lewis Hamilton.
Norris did manage third in sprint qualifying in China, dropping one place in the sprint race. He and Piastri were less than two 10ths slower than the Ferraris in GP qualifying in Shanghai. For all that both cars failed to start the race because of power-unit problems, McLaren’s underlying form suggests that sooner or later they could disrupt the leading four. As Russell said: “McLaren were pretty fast, so a little bit of a surprise, to be honest.”
Ferrari think they have not made progress. Diego Ioverno, their sporting director, said: “The gap is more or less where we expected it to be, also quite in line with the first two races, especially in the short runs. We have to improve.”
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Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose? George Russell may hope not.
The comprehensive changes in Formula One’s regulations mean 2026 is very different to 2025 in many regards, but a similarity between the results of the first two grands prix this year and last could hint at one enduring echo of the previous campaign.
Last year and this, two different drivers from the same team – then Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, now Russell and Kimi Antonelli – stood on the top step in Australia and China respectively. In 2025 that was the cue for a title battle within McLaren that lasted through to the autumn, when Max Verstappen joined in; could Mercedes v Mercedes be the dominant theme in 2026, and could that then allow a rival to have a late shout at the world championship?
There has been no equivalent yet from Mercedes of McLaren’s “Go racing” mantra, which contributed enormously to the excitement of last season. It also allowed Verstappen, eventually, to close within striking distance, after Piastri and Norris took points off each other – and indeed the team, when they clashed.
You have to think that Russell, like the bookmakers, will see this as being his time: Antonelli is a teenager in his second year in F1, which he started with just three podium finishes, and China was his first pole and first win. The Briton, at 28, had eight poles, five wins and 24 podiums before this campaign, and had waited patiently for the technological advantage to accrue to Mercedes once more, as he discussed with our Giles Richards.
But world titles are not just given to anyone, and Russell needs to seize his moment, starting this weekend at Suzuka and the Japanese Grand Prix. He was unlucky in China: he took the sprint race from pole but his chances of qualifying fastest for the main race were restricted by an electrical problem in Q3, allowing Antonelli to take charge. Russell may also be cursing Donald Trump: while there are myriad more serious repercussions of the US and Israeli war with Iran, the cancellation of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian GPs means Mercedes will have fewer opportunities to capitalise on their initial technological advantage and other teams, freed of the need to concentrate on the now, may catch up quicker.
There is a five-week gap to the next race, in Miami, longer than the summer pause between Hungary and the Netherlands, and that is the sole race before Montreal on 24 May. The outlook for Russell would be a lot sunnier if he spent the whole of April with a minimum 11-point lead over Antonelli and at least 24 over anyone outside Mercedes. No pressure, George.
Join us from 6am GMT to see how he and his rivals get on.