No club wants to be 1-3 to start a season. But as the opening month of the 2026 home-and-away campaign has already shown, not all win-loss records are built the same.
Adelaide and Carlton enter Thursday night’s Gather Round opener under pressure, but for very different reasons. On paper, they sit alongside each other in the bottom third of the ladder. In reality, their paths to get there couldn’t be much different.
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The Crows’ sole win for the first month of football comes with some context, but it’s not without its frustrations.
Matthew Nicks’ side has had a tough early run, having faced all of Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs, Geelong and Fremantle. They jagged a rare away win against the former, but have since had three consecutive single-digit losses — most recently a heartbreaking two-point defeat to the latter at home last week.
As last year’s minor premiers, the expectation is as high as it’s been for the best part of a decade at West Lakes. That being said, Adelaide’s issues feel more about execution than alarm. They’ve started slow, then gotten red-hot, and then faded late when the match is truly on the line.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about Carlton.
Their own 1-3 start hasn’t been about narrow misses or a tough draw, and has instead been overwhelmed by a distressing inability to sustain their first-half output.
Voss brushes off questions about future | 02:40
It’s seen them relinquish three half time leads already this season, and oh so nearly a fourth against Richmond, where they held on for dear life to win by four points after conceding four of the last five goals for the match.
Head coach Michael Voss was already under more pressure than any of his counterparts heading into 2026, but now — rightly or wrongly — it feels like it’s reached boiling point.
Like the Crows, it’s so far been hard to distinguish what’s real and what’s not; which makes separating signal from noise all the more important ahead of a defining prime time night clash at Adelaide Oval.
REAL: ‘REACTIVE’ SECOND-HALF FADES BLUES CAN’T SHAKE OFF
As has already been so well documented, this is the realest of reals at Ikon Park.
It’s borderline unfathomable to think, but there is a world right now where Carlton are 4-0. Granted, Sydney’s 75-point third quarter against them in Opening Round was simply insane, but it’s easy to remember the Blues led by 22 points in the early stages of that second half.
Obviously there’s no one simple fix to their second-half woes, but as four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis tells foxfooty.com.au, there are noticeable changes in the way they’re playing that are bound to make a difference.
“When I watch them closely … it’s the will to run, the will to compete, be creative and be proactive,” Lewis said.
“In the second half, they’re too reactive to the scoreboard and mistakes — they can’t move on from mistakes. All these little things creep into your head and create doubt, which means you stop playing.
“Whenever a side’s not playing well, you look to the leaders and see how they’re performing. If they’re not performing to their own standards, it’s really hard to keep the others accountable.
“There’s no doubt that if the non-A-graders aren’t confident in the fundamentals of the game, their game falls apart. There’s a little bit on the leaders, but I also look to the bottom end to see if they’re confident in playing at the level.”
Their A-grade players in Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay and Sam Walsh have all had so-so starts to the season, while it’s naturally taking a little while for the club’s new recruits to integrate into their system — not too dissimilarly to St Kilda. Lewis has even floated the idea of trading Cripps to accelerate a rebuild, highlighting how entrenched the leadership and mentality issues feel.
Cripps and new recruit Ollie Florent walk off after Carlton’s Good Friday loss to North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, on April 3, 2026, in Melbourne, Australia (Photo by Josh Chadwick via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
NOT REAL: THE PANIC STATIONS AT WEST LAKES
After finishing top of the AFL ladder less than eight months ago, it’s fair to say Adelaide’s start on paper looks sub-par. But in the opinion of Jordan Lewis, it’s still at this stage no more than a slow start.
“They’re just slowly getting into form. You look at the third quarter last week (vs Fremantle); that’s Adelaide at their best,” Lewis told foxfooty.com.au.
“It’s certainly not panic stations, I still think they’ve got the fire power. It’s probably just the product of playing a couple of extra games last year in finals, and a slower start to pre-season before getting going again.
“If they play three quarters like that, they’ll win 95% of their games, but it’s a challenge.
“Once you’ve felt what it’s like to play like that in a new season … that’s the standard now. They didn’t get across the line against a really good Fremantle team, but now you feel it, and that you can prove it.”
A loss tonight would change this narrative considerably, but for now, the general consensus isn’t that they’ve lost their mojo indefinitely.
A loss tonight would change this narrative considerably, but for now, the general consensus isn’t that they’ve lost their mojo indefinitely. Their percentage sits near 100%, the losses have been by small margins against quality sides, and key personnel are only just returning to full fitness.
A loss this Thursday night to Carlton would turn a pair of common variables in recent games into a genuine concern (Photo by James Elsby via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
REAL: THE ‘CROW-VAL’ HAS BEEN BREACHED… KIND OF
This concern is a little more real than their slow start to 2026, but it’s still not totally there yet.
Adelaide had a near-formidable home record at Adelaide Oval during last year’s home-and-away season; ironically only losing to Geelong during Gather Round to hold a 12-1 record at the venue heading into finals.
That being said, they have begun to show cracks at the ‘Crow-val’ — losing their last four matches there. Again, their defeats have come against quality opposition, but the expectation is that they’re now good enough to combat that on their home turf.
Their ball movement (specifically regarding handballs and metres gained) has ranked towards the lower of the league so far, in a game that is continuing to evolve rapidly. Defensively they remain elite, but when the Crows go sideways or reactive instead of penetrating, sides like the Dockers can punish them at contest.
It’s not a total collapse of their castle, but it’s certainly no longer the fortress that it was 12 months ago. A big watch in the next two home games against the Blues, and then St Kilda next Saturday night.
Why Blues should trade Patrick Cripps | 02:01
NOT REAL: THAT 2026 IS ALREADY A WRITE-OFF FOR THE BLUES
It’s still too early to slam the lid on Carlton’s season.
Yes, the second-half trend is alarming, and the pressure on Michael Voss is very real. But four games into a 23-match season is nowhere near enough to draw a line through them; particularly given the level of list turnover last off-season.
Even if the integration of new faces is taking time, the Blues still have talent, and importantly, their first halves show they can match it with most sides when their intensity is up.
One or two wins in the coming weeks — starting with Thursday night — could quickly shift the narrative and buy Voss some much-needed breathing room.
Writing them off now ignores how volatile early-season ladders can be, and how quickly confidence can swing in football. Moving on from Voss this early would point to broader instability at the club, rather than simply laying blame at the coach’s feet.
Essendon’s response against the Western Bulldogs last Sunday night, where a largely competitive performance helped ease the pressure, is a reminder of just how quickly the narrative can change for a week.
A heavy loss this weekend has the capacity to change this narrative, but for now, their season still has a heartbeat.