Derek CartyApr 14, 2026, 11:20 AM ET
CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Today’s top batter prop bets
Ketel Marte | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.64 EV
Gunnar Henderson | OVER 0.5 HR (+462)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.27 EV
Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+578)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.74 EV
Paul Goldschmidt | UNDER 0.5 H (+190)
Projection: 41% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.03 EV
Graham Pauley | OVER 0.5 RBI (+309)
Projection: 29% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.32 EV
Today’s top pitcher prop bets
Michael McGreevy | UNDER 2.5 ER (-106)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.97 EV
Jeffrey Springs | OVER 4.5 K (-149)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.52 EV
Joey Cantillo | UNDER 2.5 ER (-140)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.69 EV
Nolan McLean | UNDER 5.5 K (-107)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.02 EV
Yoshinobu Yamamoto | UNDER 1.5 ER (+111)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.87 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Merrill Kelly
+139
41.4
-2.08
+1.0
-109
-4.63
9.0
O -107
9.19
-13.37
Trevor Rogers
-168
58.6
-5.83
-1.0
-119
-7.50
U -112
4.52
Cole Ragans
-102
47.3
-5.59
-1.0
+122
-10.91
8.0
O -103
7.78
-15.55
Framber Valdez
-118
52.7
-3.32
+1.0
-159
-2.48
U -117
6.00
Riley Martin
+119
49.2
6.89
+1.0
-125
3.48
9.5
O -112
10.63
-1.59
Aaron Nola
-143
50.9
-13.01
-1.0
-104
-16.62
U -108
-7.54
Robbie Ray
-105
48.5
-5.70
-1.0
+117
-8.66
9.0
O -110
10.08
0.59
Brady Singer
-115
51.5
-3.34
+1.0
-152
-3.99
U -110
-9.68
Miles Mikolas
+153
43.2
7.73
+1.0
+105
3.57
9.5
O -108
10.43
-3.61
Mitch Keller
-186
56.8
-11.71
-1.0
-137
-14.40
U -112
-5.45
Reid Detmers
+153
44.9
12.86
+1.0
+105
10.17
9.0
O +100
9.47
-5.50
Ryan Weathers
-186
55.1
-14.83
-1.0
-137
-19.97
U -120
-3.29
Max Meyer
+135
45.5
6.20
+1.0
-111
3.24
8.5
O -108
9.58
3.23
Reynaldo Lopez
-163
54.5
-11.56
-1.0
-117
-15.26
U -112
-12.17
Shane McClanahan
-143
54.0
-7.44
-1.0
-111
-9.42
7.5
O -118
8.61
-0.22
Noah Schultz
+119
46.1
-0.29
+1.0
-116
-2.52
U -102
-8.92
Sonny Gray
-136
59.2
4.20
-1.0
-108
2.98
8.0
O -115
8.35
-11.14
Mick Abel
+113
40.8
-14.91
+1.0
-120
-14.70
U -105
2.44
Kevin Gausman
+104
49.4
2.10
+1.0
-153
1.73
7.0
O -118
7.54
-4.36
Jacob Misiorowski
-126
50.6
-10.41
-1.0
+117
-16.50
U -102
-4.49
Joey Cantillo
-120
50.1
-7.34
-1.0
+106
-10.58
8.5
O -108
8.39
-15.80
Michael McGreevy
+100
49.9
-1.08
+1.0
-137
-2.10
U -112
6.53
Michael Lorenzen
+159
35.9
-9.27
+1.0
+108
-11.95
8.5
O -118
9.45
-2.77
Colton Gordon
-194
64.2
-1.54
-1.0
-140
-1.14
U -102
-6.19
MacKenzie Gore
-120
57.1
5.93
-1.0
+104
4.37
9.0
O -101
8.61
-21.59
Jeffrey Springs
+100
42.9
-15.56
+1.0
-135
-14.98
U -120
11.10
Bryan Woo
-122
53.8
-0.88
-1.0
+103
-4.16
7.0
O -118
7.87
1.07
Michael King
+102
46.2
-8.03
+1.0
-134
-7.81
U -102
-10.31
Nolan McLean
+169
33.9
-10.77
+1.5
-126
-9.26
7.5
O -108
8.38
0.71
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
-207
66.1
-0.88
-1.5
+104
0.80
U -112
-9.69
Top Betting Trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.
New York Mets 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Mets have gone under for this bet in 14 of their last 20 contests. (+7.95 Units / 32% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -154
San Diego Padres Run Line:
The Padres have won this bet in five straight games. (+6.30 Units / 126% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -136
Minnesota Twins Moneyline:
The Twins have won this bet in five consecutive home games. (+6.30 Units / 120% ROI). Current odds: +113
Los Angeles Angels Game Total OVER:
The Angels have won this bet in eight straight games. (+8.00 Units / 88% ROI). Current odds: 9 @ -105