Three races would ordinarily be too small a sample size for any meaningful reflection on the state of Formula 1, but in 2026, under sweeping regulation changes, the opening phase of the season has been more enlightening that it would otherwise be.

It’s not just that the first sketches of the form guide have been made. Trajectories are also becoming clear as teams come to grips with the new rules.

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Though Mercedes has clearly started the year on the front foot, what we’ve learnt so far this year shows that there’s no guarantee it will stay there over the next 19 rounds.

A note on the below statistics: the ‘gap to fastest’ metric compares each team’s fastest qualifying lap to the fastest overall qualifying lap and averages the gap over the three grands prix to date.

The ‘development’ metric draws a line of best fit between those gaps to approximate how much closer or further away each team is getting to the front of the field. While some upgrades were brought to the first three weekends, so far this metric has been more useful in demonstrating how much each team’s understanding of the new rules and their new engines had developed.

1. MERCEDES: 135 POINTS

Wins: 3 (Australia, China, Japan)

Poles: 3 (Australia, China, Japan)

Gap to fastest: 0.000 seconds

Development: no change (10th)

All the speculation of recent years that Mercedes would be the team to beat under this year’s unprecedented regulation changes has proved to be true. The German marque has taken all three grands prix poles to date and completed all three races in one-two formation. It also recorded pole and victory in the Shanghai sprint. Andrea Kimi Antonelli has also come good just in time to capitalise, giving Mercedes two drivers in the fight — should a fight be required to seal the deal.

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Could an equally matched driver line-up prove to be a thorn in the team’s side if a rivalry were to develop?Source: Getty Images

What’s gone right: Just about everything. The Mercedes power unit is the class of the field, but its chassis is also highly effective — just compare it to McLaren, with the same engine, for example. The team also looks far better prepared than any other, meaning it’s hit the ground with its car-engine combo in the sweet spot while others are still toiling.

What’s gone wrong: Mercedes lost the political battle over compression ratios, though the team eventually voted in favour of clamping down on the contentious loophole, so certain is it that it won’t lose much from it. On track, while Antonelli’s big step was always the aim, could an equally matched driver line-up prove to be a thorn in the team’s side if a rivalry were to develop?

April focus: Keeping up the momentum. The rate of improvement among other teams has been massive, and McLaren in particular always intended to start slowly and finish strongly, as it has done for the last couple of seasons to devastating effect. With rule tweaks also in the offing, Mercedes can’t rest on the laurels of its formidable start.

Antonelli becomes youngest F1 leader | 01:25

2. FERRARI: 90 POINTS

Best finish: 3rd (Australia, China, Japan)

Best qualifying: 3rd (China)

Gap to fastest: 0.658 seconds (3rd)

Development: improving by 0.176 seconds per race (7th)

Ferrari sacrificed last season to ensure this year’s car hit the mark, and it’s been rewarded — sort of — by emerging as the second-best car out of the box. It is, however, one large step behind Mercedes, which seriously tempers any satisfaction about recovering from the lows of 2025.

What’s gone right: Ferrari’s consistency off the line has been nothing short of spectacular. It’s the only team in which both drivers have gains places on the first lap of every grand prix, and only Aston Martin — starting way, way further back — can equal Ferrari’s cumulative 12 first-lap overtakes. The Scuderia’s chassis is also a potential Mercedes beater, looking at least a match through most corners.

What’s gone wrong: Ferrari’s engine just isn’t in the same league as the Mercedes, and it’s accounting for the gap between them at the head of the field. The power unit also looks tougher to set up at energy-poor circuits, as we saw in Japan, which has played a role in McLaren seizing the ascendancy for second place.

April focus: Getting more out of the power unit and hoping that regulations tweaks rein in Mercedes’s advantage. Ferrari also believes it will be in line for at least one in-season engine upgrade this year, which it has to nail if it’s to have any title aspirations for 2026.

Safety car costs Piastri in Japan | 02:18

3. McLAREN: 45 POINTS

Best finish: 2nd (Japan)

Best qualifying: 3rd (Japan)

Gap to fastest: 0.612 seconds (2nd)

Development: improving by 0.280 seconds/race (4th)

The defending constructors champion has started the season borderline comically, with only three starts from a possible six, including a historically embarrassingly double DNS in China. In Japan, however, Oscar Piastri demonstrated the 2026 machine has potential, having come a safety car away from an unlikely victory.

What’s gone right: Until Japan, not much, but Piastri proved in Suzuka that McLaren is now getting roughly as much as Mercedes out of its power unit and is competitive enough in general to keep the faster German car behind it if it can take track position. With a big upgrade scheduled for Miami, it was enough to reignite hope in the campaign.

If McLaren can take a big step up in May, it’ll be game on again.Source: AFP

What’s gone wrong: Reliability has been dire so far this season, albeit not all of it is on the chassis side. Reigning champion Lando Norris has regularly missed practice time — crucial in 2026 — while Piastri can blame at least 1.5 of his two failures to start on car troubles.

April focus: Nailing that upgrade. Every team will bring updates to Miami, but McLaren has a reputation to uphold as the field’s most reliable and effective development team. If it can take a big step up in May, it’ll be game on again.

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4. HAAS: 18 POINTS

Best finish: 5th (China)

Best qualifying: 10th (China)

Gap to fastest: 1.667 seconds (8th)

Development: improving by 0.224 seconds/race (6th)

Is this the midfield’s best team? Pure pace tells only part of the story when the sport’s smallest squad has become a reliable scorer on Sundays, capitalising on opportunities in this unpredictable opening phase of the season under brand-new rules.

What’s gone right: Haas could so easily have been one of the big losers from such massive rule changes, but the team has been disciplined in delivering a dependable car that’s allowed great feats in race trim. Oliver Bearman has also taken a clear step up in his second season. Improvement were evident late last year, but his consistency has been excellent so far in 2026, and it’s his score that’s put Haas an unlikely fourth in the constructors championship.

What’s gone wrong: The cancellation of racing in April has prevented Haas from capitalising on struggles among its rivals just as it had some momentum. Haas has the least developmental firepower in the midfield, so lost races at this time will make it tougher to hold a place on the top half of the table.

April focus: Keep up the momentum, hope the Miami upgrades work as expected and push Esteban Ocon to find another gear to ensure both cars are scoring when possible.

“We know we’re not ready to win yet” | 01:47

5. ALPINE: 16 POINTS

Best finish: 6th (China)

Best qualifying: 7th (China, Japan)

Gap to fastest: 1.416 seconds (5th)

Development: improving by 0.599 seconds/race (1st)

Alpine’s rebirth as a Mercedes customer team has seen it vault back up the order. After an unexpectedly tough first race in Australia — though it still scored points there despite qualifying outside the top 10 — Pierre Gasly has delivered big at the last two rounds to put Alpine at the head of the midfield on pure pace.

What’s gone right: Alpine signed its Mercedes supply contract at exactly the right time, but the team’s sacrificing of 2025 development to benefit 2026 has ensured this is about more than just engine performance. Pierre Gasly has also been outstanding so far this year, revelling in the chance to fight forwards after the last couple of dire campaigns.

What’s gone wrong: Franco Colapinto has finally got points on the board for Alpine, but the Argentine hasn’t really kicked on from last season. On average he’s qualifying five places and 0.602 seconds behind Gasly and finishing 5.7 places adrift on Sunday. Last year the car and his inexperience were obvious culprits. He’s fast running out of excuses now.

April focus: Prove this isn’t just a false dawn. How many times have we been fooled by Enstone over the last decade? The signs are all positive, but in the super competitive midfield, Alpine has to go out and take what could be a fourth place on the title table by the end of the season.

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6. RED BULL RACING: 16 POINTS

Best finish: 6th (Australia)

Best qualifying: 3rd (Australia)

Gap to fastest: 1.156 seconds (4th)

Development: degrading by 0.141 seconds/race (11th)

Red Bull Racing boss Laurent Mekies admitted late last year that ongoing focus on solving the 2025 car’s problems would cost it in 2026, and he’s been proved devastatingly true. The RB22 looking like an unspectacular midfield car over the last two rounds and is the only challenger moving further away from Mercedes.

What’s gone right: Isack Hadjar’s step up to the senior team — historically a poisoned chalice — has gone well so far. He’s been just 0.02 seconds slower than Verstappen so far this season, making the RBR teammates the most closely matched in qualifying pace this season. The team’s first in-house power unit is also a commendable first attempt.

What’s gone wrong: Everything else. The car is uncompetitive, hard to drive and harder to decode. The engine is good but not in the same league as the leaders. High-profile staff are continuing to head towards the exit. Max Verstappen is considering quitting the sport over this year’s rule change.

April focus: Pray that Verstappen changes his mind on quitting Formula 1. Once the praying’s done, work on understanding where the car has gone so badly wrong and ensure the major upgrades due in Miami and then immediately afterwards in Canada can unknot the RB22 to return it at least to the foot of the frontrunning group.

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7. RACING BULLS: 14 POINTS

Best finish: 7th (China)

Best qualifying: 8th (Australia)

Gap to fastest: 1.659 seconds (7th)

Development: improving by 0.141 seconds/race (8th)

Racing Bulls has continued building the friendlier of the two Red Bull-backed machines, delivering a car that has scored at every weekend and quietly emerged as a contender for midfield class honours.

What’s gone right: The new car, mated to the new engine, has been a success — which is no given for by definition one of the sport’s smaller teams. Liam Lawson has taken a nice step this year, perhaps thanks to having his first full pre-season campaign under his belt. Rookie Arvid Lindblad has also shown some of his promised dazzling speed.

What’s gone wrong: Given this team’s hemmed-in horizon, not much. Only in some truly wild dreams would anyone have expected much more from Racing Bulls after three rounds this season.

April focus: Keep up in the development race. Racing Bulls has stumbled with upgrades over the last couple of seasons. It has the potential to contend at the head of the midfield, but it’ll need its updates to fire immediately to stay in the mix.

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8. AUDI: 2 POINTS

Best finish: 9th (Australia)

Best qualifying: 9th (Japan)

Gap to fastest: 1.583 seconds (6th)

Development: improving by 0.321 seconds/race (3rd)

Audi’s official Formula 1 launch has been tough to read. On single-lap pace it’s been very impressive, but it has just two points to show for its efforts — perhaps a reminder of its origins as the former Sauber team, a long-time midfielder prone to inconsistency.

What’s gone right: The Audi power unit has looked more competitive than some of the more dire rumours of recent years had suggested it would be — enough to make the car a potent qualifier. If it hasn’t been in Q3, it’s qualified just outside it, with sophomore Gabriel Bortoleto usually the driver ahead.

What’s gone wrong: Audi has lost more places cumulatively off the line than any other team this season, with Bortoleto and Nico Hülkenberg dropping a combined 18 places on the first lap. Its diabolical starts are matched only by reliability woes, with two failures to start mixed in among the losses. Those woeful launches have almost certainly cost the team points that might have had it looking like a more realistic contender for the upper midfield places.

April focus: Figure out how to get more from the power unit off the line. If Audi’s drivers could execute better starts, pace so far suggests the team would be scoring points regularly.

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9. WILLIAMS: 2 POINTS

Best finish: 9th (China)

Best qualifying: 15th (Australia)

Gap to fastest: 2.456 seconds (9th)

Development: improving by 0.266 seconds/race (5th)

Williams made a virtue of the fact it was throwing in the towel on 2025 early to focus on 2026, having turned Grove upside down to be ready for the new rules. Then it missed the start of pre-season testing and turned up with an overweight and uncompetitive car that’s left it near the back of the pack, saved its blushed only by an F1 newcomer and a team in crisis behind it.

What’s gone right: It’s hard to think of many positives beyond the team’s supply of Mercedes engines — though even that makes you wonder how much worse things would look if it didn’t have that boost under the engine cover.

What’s gone wrong: Various rumours place the car tens of kilos overweight, which adds up to significant lap time, but the car also has significant problems. It’s badly balanced and looks like the most stiffly set up on the grid, with drivers reporting feeling the car three-wheel through some corners as a result. Given the actively built expectations for this year, it’s looked tough to swallow for the drivers.

April focus: Upgrades, upgrades, upgrades. The April cancellations have been a gift for Williams, giving it time to work without losing points to would-be midfield rivals. Weight saving is a first-order priority that will give the team free lap time, but understanding its dynamics problems is also critical. Effectively every element of the car needs attention.

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10. CADILLAC: 0 POINTS

Best finish: 13th (China)

Best qualifying: 18th (Australia)

Gap to fastest: 3.810 seconds (11th)

Development: improving by 0.538 seconds/race (2nd)

Cadillac’s grand prix debut has been quiet but dignified. After some had worried the car might be too slow to even qualify for races early in the season, the first General Motors team in Formula 1 has easily made it onto the grid at all three events — and not only that it’s not even been by default the slowest car.

What’s gone right: Pretty much everything. Cadillac was never going to be more than a tail-ended this season, but the fact that it’s fighting to avoid a last-place finish is impressive. The team looks professional and well drilled, and both experienced drivers look like they’re doing the job.

What’s gone wrong: Not much at all. The team’s reliability problems have been par for the course for a new entry and for these sweeping rule changes.

April focus: Keep it up. Getting to F1 is extremely difficult, but the mountain from the back of the field into the midfield is even bigger.

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11. ASTON MARTIN: 0 POINTS

Best finish: 18th (Japan)

Best qualifying: 17th (Australia)

Gap to fastest: 3.667 seconds (10th)

Development: improving by 0.015 seconds/race (9th)

Many had picked big-spending, big-ambition Aston Martin to be knocking on the door to the frontrunning pack this season. Instead it’s been the season’s disaster team. The first year of its works Honda relationship has been catastrophic, though it’s become clear over the opening three rounds that Aston Martin itself shares the blame for the abysmal start to the year.

What’s gone right: Nothing.

What’s gone wrong: Everything. The engine was vibrating itself to death, and though some measures were put in place to preserve reliability — albeit at the expense of even more performance — there’s been no progress on the cause of the vibrations, which have been so bad that the drivers are worried about permanent nerve damage. As a result, Aston Martin has just one finish from a possible six this season and is last in the championship.

April focus: Keep morale up as every single department works on improving the package. The unwieldy car is responsible for at least half the team’s 3.7-second qualifying deficit, and that can be upgraded freely within the budget cap. Honda can bring reliability-focused upgrades too, but it’s sure to receive two concessional upgrades this year on top of that. Every update must bring improvement.