The United States is scheduled to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July at 10:30 PM AEST on Tuesday, prompting widespread anticipation among market participants. Several financial institutions have released their expectations for the key inflation indicator.
Stephen Stanley of Santander predicts a 0.4 per cent increase in the core CPI (0.38 per cent unrounded). Stanley believes this outcome could elevate the year-over-year advance by two tenths, reaching 3.1 per cent, the highest since February. Wells Fargo anticipates a 0.3 per cent rise in the core CPI, marking the strongest gain in six months. They estimate a more modest 0.2 per cent increase in the headline inflation figure, attributed to declining gasoline prices and subdued food inflation. If realised, the headline CPI would hold steady at 2.7 per cent year-over-year.
Goldman Sachs projects a 0.33 per cent increase in July core CPI, resulting in a year-over-year rate of 3.08 per cent. Goldman Sachs expects tariffs to continue boosting monthly inflation in the coming months and forecasts monthly core CPI inflation between 0.3-0.4 per cent.
Goldman Sachs also anticipates underlying trend inflation to decline further this year, due to shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labour markets. They project year-over-year core CPI inflation of +3.3 per cent and core PCE inflation of +3.3 per cent in December 2025, or +2.5 per cent for both measures excluding the effects of tariffs.
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