Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview: Lightning vs Canadiens
The Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6, 24-12-5 on the road) take on the Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10, 24-15-2 at home) at Bell Centre in Game 4 of this first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series. The Habs lead the series 2-1.
Canadiens Set to Deliver Victory
There is merit in backing the Canadiens on the Moneyline considering our prediction is that they will have the edge over the Lightning. Especially as odds of -100 are available about this happening.
Overtime Battles Define Series
The Canadiens won the opener 4-3 in overtime, before the Lightning responded with a 3-2 overtime win in the second game. The teams met again at Bell Centre two nights ago, with Montreal edging a 3-2 overtime victory, in what has been a tightly contested series so far.
Game 3 saw the Canadiens register 29 shots on goal, with Lane Hutson, Alexandre Texier and Kirby Dach each scoring. Tampa Bay managed 17 shots, with Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel both finding the net.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The Habs have won six of the last 10 meetings between the teams.
Starting Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
39-15-4
2.3
.911
2
23/24
30-20-2
2.9
.900
2
Jakub Dobes (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
29-10-4
2.8
.901
0
Tampa Bay Lightning – Last 10 Games
4 wins, 4 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.4 goals from 24.7 shots on goal, with a 6.9% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have been giving up 3.0 goals from 25.2 shots, averaging 6.7 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 89.6%.
Nikita Kucherov is the top points scorer with 10 points, 4 goals and 6 assists, with Jake Guentzel racking up 10 points, 2 goals and 8 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.31 goal against average with a .904 save percentage.
Montreal Canadiens – Last 10 Games
The Habs have 6 wins, 3 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.5 goals from 24.8 shots on goal, with a 10.7% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.8 goals from 27.4 shots, averaging 5.7 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 93.0%.
The top points scorer is Nick Suzuki with 10 points, 2 goals and 8 assists, while Juraj Slafkovsky is next best after having 9 points, 4 goals and 5 assists. Goalie Jakub Dobes have a 2.88 GAA with a .891 SV%.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction & Picks
Get ready for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens with all the betting angles covered, from an expert match prediction and correct score advice to player props and a custom bet builder.
Game Prediction
If you’re looking for a value bet, then -100 that Montreal Canadiens win this NHL game certainly stands out. We’re expecting them to triumph on the Moneyline at attractive odds.
Our hockey picks are rooted in solid team news and up-to-date form for each franchise. We also dig deep to uncover the most relevant NHL stats that help guide and strengthen our predictions.
Key Lightning vs Canadiens stats:
Canadiens have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.Canadiens have won 14 of their last 20 games.Lightning have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road.Lightning have lost 6 of their last 10 games.Canadiens have won 6 of their last 10 games against Lightning.Canadiens Moneyline Probability
Looking at the latest betting odds, there’s a 50% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. In the opinion of our cappers, there’s actually a probability of success between 55-60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this hockey bet.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
The Match Winner & Total Goals lines not only give you a chance to back Montreal for the win but also combine this selection with a prediction for how many goals will be scored.
Boost your wager with the newest free bets, sign-up promotions and the best betting offers featured in our easy-to-use guide.
Our Game Prediction
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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 25, 23:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Published 23:56, 25 April 2026
Player Prop Picks
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) has had Under 3.5 shots on goal in 8 of the past 10 games. We think he might fall short of the mark, with odds of -130 available when it comes to this Shots on Goal bet.
Latest Nikita Kucherov Player Prop Odds
Goals
Assists
Shots on Goal
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Close Game On the Cards According to Latest Odds
Montreal Canadiens have been given Moneyline odds of -100 against Tampa Bay Lightning who are -120. There is a 50% chance of the hosts winning according to the top sportsbooks.
The puck line is 1.5 and the total goals line is currently 5.5. A Totals wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you want to wager Over 5.5, there are odds of -133.
The best NHL sportsbooks offer a wide variety of game lines and team props for every matchup, with plenty of options available both before and during the game. Be sure to explore all the lines and odds before placing your bets.
Cole Caufield is the First Goalscorer Favorite
The First Goalscorer favorite is Cole Caufield at +850. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the last goal.
Player Goals
Cole Caufield (Canadiens)
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Brandon Hagel (Lightning)
Juraj Slafkovsky (Canadiens)
Player Assists
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Nick Suzuki (Canadiens)
Lane Hutson (Canadiens)
Jake Guentzel (Lightning)
Player Shots
Cole Caufield (Canadiens)
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Brandon Hagel (Lightning)
Darren Raddysh (Lightning)
Micro Betting
There are lots of exciting NHL micro betting lines that are created and they are available in-game. Among them are next goalscorer, next team to find the net and whether a goal will be scored within the next 10 minutes.
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Team Stats
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Tampa Bay Lightning Stats
Montreal Canadiens Stats
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games
-1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 1 of the last 10 games
-1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games on the road
+1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
+1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 home games
Game Totals: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 7.00 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 5.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 3.00 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.60 pts and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games on the road
Game Totals: An average of 5.50 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.70 goals in the previous 10 home games
Over 5.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.70 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.10 goals and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 home games
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.4
Shots: 24.7
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 6.7
Empty Net Goals: 0.1
Penalty Minutes: 17.4
Blocks: 14.5
Faceoff Wins : 26
Hits: 25.8
Giveaways: 15.6
Takeaways: 5
Last 10 Games on the Road
Goals Powerplay: 0.5
Shots: 26.2
Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
Penalties: 6.5
Empty Net Goals: 0.2
Penalty Minutes: 19.9
Blocks: 13.6
Faceoff Wins : 27.1
Hits: 23
Giveaways: 16.3
Takeaways: 5.2
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.8
Shots: 24.8
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 5.7
Empty Net Goals: 0
Penalty Minutes: 14.9
Blocks: 13.7
Faceoff Wins : 27.5
Hits: 29.4
Giveaways: 14.6
Takeaways: 4.5
Last 10 Home Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.5
Shots: 25.8
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 5
Empty Net Goals: 0.1
Penalty Minutes: 14.8
Blocks: 13.5
Faceoff Wins : 26.7
Hits: 25.8
Giveaways: 13.6
Takeaways: 4.2
Starting Lineups
Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.
Expert Analysis by Kevin Thompson
NHL Analyst
About the Analyst
Our ice hockey previews are produced by a specialised team of analysts, former odds compilers and sports journalists. Picks are research-driven and reviewed for accuracy and editorial consistency under the oversight of our hockey panel and Editor-in-Chief.
NHL Predictions Methodology
Our NHL analysis combines the latest team news, injury reports and line changes with recent form and market movement. We factor in situational analysis like home ice advantage and schedule spots. Metrics such as Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals (xG) and PDO are used to evaluate puck possession, shot quality, goaltending performance and special teams efficiency beyond the traditional box score.
Full Methodology & Data Sources
Where to Bet
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Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Apr 25, 23:56 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, confirmed lines and pairings, starting goaltenders, lineup changes, schedule context, key performance metrics and odds movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Ice Hockey Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our game predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
Important: Betting should be treated as entertainment and involves risk. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
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