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The Maple Leafs, with just one shot with the final ball at No. 12, and only an 8.5 per cent chance of picking first, hit the jackpot.
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Published May 05, 2026 • Last updated 2 hours ago • 6 minute read
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The Vancouver Canucks could opt for high scoring OHL defenceman Chase Reid with the third-overall pickArticle content
We knew the odds and the history. We also knew hope and despair.
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The NHL draft lottery has been the Vancouver Canucks’ kryptonite. It has killed the hope of selecting first overall and moving up in the pecking order. The franchise has also fallen in order on four occasions.
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It’s why equal parts anticipation and angst were evident Tuesday when bingo balls starts popping In Secaucus, N.J. for two draws. The first would award the top pick and opportunity to select consensus top prospect winger Gavin McKenna. A second draw determined the second selection.
And despite the last-place Canucks having the best odds at 25.5 per cent to hit the first-pick jackpot, they watched as the Toronto Maple Leafs, who had a slight 8.5 per cent shot of selecting first overall, win it.
Toronto Maple Leafs executive Mats Sundin appears on a video screen after the team he just joined won the NHL draft lottery for the first pick, drawn at NHL Network studio in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Photo by Stephen Whyno /AP
With Vancouver’s final ping-pong ball determining its lottery fate for the prized pick, it just needed a 1, 5 or 13 to pop up. But the Leafs, with just one chance with No. 12, and just an 8.5 chance of winning, hit the home run.
The Canucks, who then had an 18.8 per cent shot at the second slot, needed a No. 5 or No. 8 but the San Jose Sharks, with a 5.2 per cent chance of selecting second, did just that.
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And, so, with the Canucks holding the best odds of 55.7 per cent to lock into the third selection for the NHL Draft on June 26-27 in Buffalo, it’s where they will pick. The Canucks will also have a late first-round pick — anywhere from 22nd to 31st — acquired in the Quinn Hughes trade to the Minnesota Wild.
The Canucks have a history of picking potent players with third-overall choices in Jocelyn Guevremont (1971), Don Lever (1972), Dennis Ververgaert (1973) and Henrik Sedin (1999).
Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford knows teams covet prize prospect blueliners because they’re in big demand and difficult to acquire. The Canucks could go that route with their third pick.
“The fact that the Canucks are not picking No. 1, it doesn’t mean we have to be all upset about this,” Rutherford said after the lottery to soothe the souls of franchise faithful. “This is a really strong draft and you really don’t know how it’s going to fall.
“You’ve got a number of good defencemen in there — one could even go No.1 — and you don’t know how high they’re going to go. There’s a premium on right-shot defencemen and centres and when you’re building a team you’ve got to be strong down the middle.
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“We feel very strongly that we’re going to get a real good player. No.3 is going to be a good building block.”
The Canucks could land a centre with their second selection in the first round and several with size or skill who project as second-liners. And with four picks in the first two rounds, they could also get a good leg up on the roster rebuild.
“This could be a game-changer for the Canucks if the staff hits on three or four of those picks,” said Rutherford.
In this lottery, McKenna was the big prize.
Penn State rookie Gavin McKenna goes on offensive against Arizona State in NCAA matchup Oct. 3, 2025, in Tempe, Ariz. Photo by Rick Scuteri /AP
He has the highest offensive ceiling and excelling as a 17-year-old rookie at the NCAA level against older, bigger and stronger players set him apart. McKenna isn’t big, but his playmaking and vision are the great separators. Could he step right into the NHL?
“He could play because of his upside and extra-pop potential, but I don’t think he should,” NHL prospects scout Shane Malloy told Postmedia. “He could get into the 100- to 110-point range, and that’s rare, because he’s highly deceptive. It’s his body movements.
“He can change in microseconds with that speed, but I’d put him back in college (Penn State). He’s not super strong yet.”
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The Canucks should now focus on four defenceman who project as first-pairing blueliners when the club is ready to be a consistent contender. There’s the temptation to choose winger Ivar Stenberg, who excelled in the Swedish Hockey League, or OHL centre Caleb Malhotra. However, the rebuilding Canucks can add a forward with their second first-round selection.
“They should take a defenceman — they’re missing a piece,” NHL prospects scout Shane Malloy stressed to Postmedia News. “It’s who is available, and arguably, two could become a No. 1 and the other three a No. 2. Drafting a first-pairing defenceman supersedes anybody else. Reid and Verhoeff are tied in my eyes.
“Vancouver is going to be bad next year and again the following year. It’s hard to get a top defencemen. What happens if the Canucks play well and get out of the top 10 picks next year? Are you going to find a top 10 defenceman? Maybe, but you’re another year behind and defencemen take longer to develop.
“Looking at the time frame for this draft group at five years, your centres and wingers develop earlier, they always do. The longer you push off defencemen, the harder it is. When you’re ready in five years to push forward, your defenceman are not ready for that.”
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Canucks draft pick priorities1. Chase Reid, RSD, 6-2, 187 lbs., Sault Ste. Marie (OHL), GP: 45, G: 18, A: 30, PTS: 48
Scout says: “The only defenceman I have with a high probability of being a No. 1. He can do everything. It’s like watching Drew Doughty with what he brings strategically.”
2. Keaton Verhoeff, RSD, 6-4, 212 lbs., North Dakota (NCAA), GP: 36, G: 6, A: 14, PTS: 20
Scout says: “He’s going to play at 225 pounds. Think Aaron Ekblad, who’s a big right-shot. How would the Canucks look with a guy who put up 45 points (21-24) in 63 WHL games?”
3. Carson Carels, LSD, 6-2, 198 lbs., Prince George (WHL), GP: 58, G: 20, A: 53, PTS: 73
Scout says: “Very mobile, excellent work ethic, and very good hockey sense and compete. He’s a top-pairing guy and you can put him in any situation. Charlie McAvoy (comparable) is fair.”
4. Daxon Rudolph, LSD, 6-3, 206 lbs., Prince Albert Raiders (WHL), GP: 68, G: 28, A: 50, PTS: 78
Scout says: “Hard to play against and makes life uncomfortable. Every inch you get in the offensive zone is not going to be fun. He skates well and can be on second PP and the PK.”
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5. Maddox Dagenais, C, 6-4, 196 lbs., Quebec Remparts (QHL), GP: 62, G: 30, A: 32, PTS: 62
“Big, strong and projectable third-line centre. If you’re going to win down the middle you have to win with size. Think of Fraser Minten kind of a player. Taps out in NHL at 50 points but probably 40.”
NHL Draft Lottery
Where/When: Today, 4 p.m. PT in Secaucus, N.J., TV: Sportsnet.
How draws worked: Fourteen Ping-Pong balls representing non-playoff teams were assigned random four-number combinations. The worse the record, the more combinations assigned. The last-place Canucks got 185, for a 25.5 per cent chance of winning the first draw, based on outright percentage of 18.5 (185 of 1,000 possible combinations). A second draw determined the second selection, and the Canucks were locked into third if they didn’t land the first or second picks.
Who got No. 1?: Eleven teams are eligible for the first pick. If a club in the No. 12 to No. 16 positions wins, it moves up 10 spots, and the lowest-seeded team (worst record) receives the first pick. The Leafs leapt from No.5 to win the jackpot.
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