After spotlighting the quarterback position, our fantasy football roundtable series shifts focus to the running backs. The Athletic fantasy football crew of Jake Ciely, Michael Salfino, Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don return to offer their opinions on hot-button questions at the RB position.

What are the statistical expectations for lauded rookie Ashton Jeanty? Who are the RBs to target among the Top 12 in ADP in addition to those falling outside the Top 20? Who is the biggest backup lottery ticket? Read on for our answers to these questions, and stay tuned in later this week for our wide receiver and tight end roundtables!

Note: All ADPs mentioned below are from Fantasy Pros.

What is your Ashton Jeanty stat line prediction for his rookie campaign?

Photo of Ashton Jeanty: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images

All members of our fantasy panel appear optimistic for a big year from Jeanty, though Ciely’s projections are more conservative than others when it comes to how the rookie RB will be used in the passing game. Behrens was the most optimistic in the group in that regard and also gave him the highest total TD projection, with 14, which would have had him trailing only seven RBs last year (regular season) — behind Bijan Robinson and ahead of David Montgomery.

ANALYST

  

RUSH YARDS

  

RECEPTIONS

  

REC. YARDS

  

TOUCHDOWNS

  

Ciely

1237

33

243

10

Salfino

1300

53

425

13

Behrens

1265

58

415

14

Del Don

1025

49

390

9

Funston

1225

50

400

12

CONSENSUS

1210.4

48.6

374.6

11.6

What games-played total (over/under) for Christian McCaffrey would make you comfortable betting the over?

Photo of Christian McCaffrey: David Gonzales / Imagn Images

Ciely: I’d say 9.5. Did you know that, over the past three seasons, Breece Hall (2022) is the only RB to finish among the Top 25 (in half-PPR FPPG) who failed to play at least 10 games in a season. Plenty of running backs missed three to five games, but a lost season is far from as frequent as most believe. So, that’s where I get my “random” over/under here, even with McCaffrey’s injury history.

Salfino: I’ll go with 8.5, given his average since 2020 is 9.5.

Behrens: Let the record show McCaffrey is actually the healthiest running back on the Niners’ depth chart as of this writing. He’s doing just fine. CMC did not limp into camp with any preexisting injuries. That said, I am not risking my money on his calves and hamstrings unless the number is 7.5 or less.

Del Don: He’s averaged about 12 games played per season throughout his career, and I’m buying CMC in 2025, so let’s say 12.5? McCaffrey’s Achilles problem was (hopefully) healed through stem cell treatment; he’s a maniac when it comes to his body, and all offseason health reports have been overwhelmingly positive. Of course, he’s 29 and has elevated risk, but I’m willing to take it on.

Funston: I’ll say 6.5. CMC played seven games or fewer in three of his past five seasons, a timeframe that is a lot more relevant for a nearing-age-30 RB with a substantial injury history than those first three campaigns of his career when he played 16 games in each — the halcyon days! Bottom line: CMC will be somebody else’s dice roll, not mine.

Which Top 12 RB, according to ADP, are you targeting most at their price?

Photo of Kyren Williams: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images

Ciely: McCaffrey. He has the potential to be the top player in fantasy. Period. So, if we’re getting him at a discount from the top tier of running backs and mid-to-late first rounder, I’ll take that risk. Outside of him, I have a lot of Kyren Williams, even before the contract extension. The main concern with Rams’ running backs is the potential for a few bad games turning the page to the next option, since Sean McVay can turn good running backs into great ones. Williams’ new contract points to that risk being extremely unlikely … at least for 2025.

Salfino: In Flex 10 (three WRs and a flex), none. In Flex 9 (two WRs and a flex), any of them. Know your format! But in the spirit of the question, Jonathan Taylor and Jacobs seem like values.

Behrens: No one ever fights you for Jacobs, despite the excellent team context and his history of high-level production. Jacobs is just 27, and he’s finished as a Top 5 fantasy back in two of the past three seasons. He’s also ranked among the NFL leaders in missed tackles in every healthy season of his career, so he’s not simply a high-volume plodder.

Del Don: Chase Brown, who was fantasy’s RB5 after Zack Moss was injured in Week 8 last season. All offseason signs point to the Bengals again giving Brown a heavy workload in 2025, and it’s a terrific situation in a high-scoring offense. Don’t worry about Brown ceding some passing-down work, as third downs don’t often lead to targets anyway.

Funston: Kyren Williams is RB12 by ADP, and he sometimes drops even a little more than that. Either way, I’ll gladly accept him in that value range, as he’s ranked as my RB8, which is still a discount on his Top 6 fantasy finishes in the past two seasons. I don’t know why the fantasy community likes to predict the demise of Kyren, but he’s once again set for one of the league’s largest workloads, and he just landed a three-year deal, which pretty much solidifies that notion.

Which Top 12 RB, according to ADP, are you fading most at their price?

Photo of Jonathan Taylor: Justin Casterline / Getty Images

Ciely: I’m not hard-fading any of them, but there are two I’ve rarely drafted: Taylor and Jeanty. That’s only because someone else is always more willing. I don’t understand how people are worried about Saquon Barkley, CMC and Derrick Henry but not Taylor, who hasn’t played a full season in three years. As for Jeanty, I love him, but I’m just a tad concerned that the lack of passing game volume and touchdowns will limit his ceiling and ability to reach the Top 5.

Salfino: Obviously, McCaffrey, as he is old, was very unproductive last year, had a weird injury with an unknown prognosis (both Achilles were injured) and lost a ton of speed (3.5 mph from 2023, according to NGS, a 17% decline).

Behrens: De’Von Achane is a teacup-sized back coming off a season of weird usage. There’s always someone in a draft who likes him a full round earlier than I do. If I’m drafting a back in the second round, I need to believe he can plausibly finish as the overall RB1. That’s not Achane.

Del Don: Taylor went off at the end of last season, but his receiving work is extremely limited, and he’s quietly missed more games than McCaffrey over the last three seasons. Taylor’s expected fantasy points per game dropped 5 points during Anthony Richardson starts last season, and Joe Flacco is gone.

Funston: How does the saying go? “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me three times, shame on…” As a three-time injury bust, I’m avoiding CMC. Simple as that. Sure, if he plays a full season, I might regret my stance. But, in my best Allen Iverson voice, “We’re talking a full season!”

Which RB outside the Top 20 in ADP are you targeting most based on ADP value?

Photo of Jordan Mason: Brad Rempel / Imagn Images

Ciely: Jaydon Blue. While I don’t believe Blue is built to be a 300-touch option, I do believe in his ability. If Javonte Williams still doesn’t look anything like his pre-injury self, Blue can take advantage and lead this backfield, especially with his passing game value.

Salfino: Now we’re talking. I don’t really target anyone, but the best value at that range for me is Jordan Mason at RB34. I guarantee 10+ TDs.

Behrens: I’ve now completed enough drafts to firmly declare Isiah Pacheco is my guy. He’s healthy following a season lost to injury and unthreatened by any other names in the team’s backfield hierarchy. We shouldn’t need to convince you that Kansas City’s offense can deliver an every-week fantasy RB.

Del Don: TreVeyon Henderson is my RB16, and I often target him and RJ Harvey. Rookies take more patience but frequently pay off with the biggest reward when it matters most in the fantasy season. Henderson will share carries with Rhamondre Stevenson, but the explosive rookie looks like the new Jahmyr Gibbs. Go get him.

Funston: I’d been targeting Cam Skattebo, but I don’t like that he’s dealing with a hamstring injury, especially since we’re talking about a whole lot of hamstring with this guy. I like the other rookies mentioned here, too, in Henderson and Blue. I’m also happy to take Jaylen Warren at his RB31 price, as he’s always been a helpful fantasy asset, even in a short-side platoon role. His experience could lead to his biggest role yet, with Najee Harris off to L.A. Sure, Kaleb Johnson could be a 1-for-1 replacement for Najee. But there’s also a reasonable chance he takes time with the NFL learning curve, allowing Warren to eat for a good chunk of the season.

Which backup running back who would be unlikely to get 100 total carries without an injury to the RB ahead of him has the most league-winning upside if circumstances thrust him into a lead role in-season?

Photo of Sean Tucker: Elsa / Getty Images

Ciely: There are several, and some are obvious, like Trey Benson. While the big names get attention, I’d like to mention DJ Giddens, who would have Top 25 upside if Taylor misses time for the fourth-straight season. Tahj Brooks, who has a lot of similarities to Chase Brown and is similar to Giddens, could carry Top 25 value.

Salfino: The best backup RB in the NFL by a mile is Sean Tucker of the Buccaneers — 6.2 yards per carry; 56% success rate (average is 47%); over 9.0 yards per target as a receiver. Plus, he had an elite broken tackle rate of once every 10 carries.

Behrens: Ray Davis was a fun watch as a rookie, and he delivered proof-of-concept in the one game James Cook missed due to injury, piling up 152 yards against the Jets. If Davis happens to find significant touches this season, he’ll gain must-start status.

Del Don: Isaac Guerendo probably would get injured himself quickly if it happens, but he’d be a legit Top 5 fantasy RB any week he’s starting in San Francisco. There are many other intriguing options, and my favorites include Will Shipley, Keaton Mitchell, Jarquez Hunter, Brashard Smith, DJ Giddens, Sean Tucker and Tahj Brooks.

Funston: Jaylen Wright. Miami has ranked first and sixth, respectively, in FPPG at RB in each of the past two seasons. And we know head coach Mike McDaniel relishes speed, an attribute that positions Wright (4.38 40) as the heir apparent in the backfield should something happen to Achane. In addition to his wheels, Wright offers decent physicality in his 5-foot-10, 210-pound frame and upside as a pass catcher — Miami has also been Top 5 in RB receptions each of the past two campaigns.

List these running backs in order of most likely to return last year’s value to least likely to return last year’s value — James Cook (RB8), Alvin Kamara (RB10), James Conner (RB11), Chuba Hubbard (RB13).

Photo of James Conner: Christian Petersen / Getty Images

Ciely: Cook, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Alvin Kamara — but all super close. Cook is merely for touchdown regression, but I still think he’s an RB1. Betting a near-full season from Conner again seems ill-advised. Hubbard had inefficiency issues down the stretch. And, Kamara is the main weapon for the Saints — even in a terrible offense, he should be a fringe RB1.

Salfino: I hate all these guys at their ADPs, and Cook and Conner were great to me in 2024. But it’s never the player, it’s the price. Seriously, I would not draft any of these guys at their ADPs. I’ll go with the order in which they’re being drafted, but how can you draft Cook there when he lost 40% of snaps to Ty Johnson in an elimination game?

Behrens: Hubbard, Conner, Kamara, Cook

Del Don: Conner, Hubbard, Cook, Kamara

Funston: Kamara, Conner, Hubbard, Cook — On the most likely end of the spectrum, I just think Kamara is too central to the Saints offense. It’s hard to imagine them having any kind of success without getting the ball in his hands as much as possible. And, yes, he’s had some injuries in his career, but he’s played no fewer than 13 games in any of his eight seasons, the kind of CV that CMC can only dream of. As for the least likely end of the spectrum, it’s easy to imagine Cook losing a half dozen touchdowns from his total of 18 a season ago, especially if they get the stouter Ray Davis more involved in goal-line situations.

(Top photo of Chase Brown: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)