00:00 Speaker A
We are waiting of course the SpaceX S1. And, you know, after Cerebrus last week and now that’s coming eventually, whenever it is, or Anthropic, OpenAI may come to market. How are you thinking about how much sort of hot money demand will shift to these IPOs and where whether that will come at the expense of some of these other AI players?
00:36 Speaker B
Yeah, I mean, these companies by definition will take the oxygen out of the room. We’ve never had IPOs of this size. They’re going to go to market at an order of magnitude higher than previous IPOs. And so, uh there will be a lot of capital that has to shift there. The big question is going to be how big is the float going to be. That’s the one that’s the most important thing we’re going to look for in the S1 is how many shares is SpaceX going to issue? If they just issue 1% of their shares, the market can probably absorb that without much disruption. If they issue 10%, then they have to raise a couple a couple hundred billion dollars. That’s going to have to come out of something and we may see uh capital shift out of other uh technology investments into SpaceX, even just to make their index waiting uh work. So, it would be very disruptive if they came out with a big float. I would not expect that to be the case. I would expect a smaller float that can be absorbed and then later follow ons. They do need the capital, but uh even 20 billion, which is what they’d raise with 1%, should help fund the company, uh help it mark- to- market because let’s not forget, the eventuality is that Elon’s going to try to merge Tesla with SpaceX. He just needs both to be mark- to- market in order to do that.