Labor negotiations are inherently basic and yet complected at the same time. The universal basics of all labor talks are owners vs. unionized workers. The two sides engage in talks with the definition of a successful outcome being defined by who bested the other on certain hotly contested contract issues.

In baseball, the contract is referred to as the “Collective Bargaining Agreement”. During negotiations the rules of engagement have devolved into a high stakes game of chicken, and both sides have tools at their disposal to “convince” the other side to agree to their terms. In baseball, the owners have “the Lockout” as their main tool for applying pressure and the players have the “Strike or Work Stoppage” in their arsenal for “encouraging” owners to see things their way. Each method of “persuasion” can be more adequately described as a nuclear option.

History has shown that both sides are willing to go “nuclear” when they feel they are being backed into a corner. Let’s take a look at some of history regarding these two sides over the last 50+ years:

1972 – The players went on strike about pending function shortfalls and salary arbitration. This strike is regarded as the first major strike in the history of American sports. It lasted 12 days from April 1st to April 13th. The uneven schedule where some teams played as little as 153 games while no team played more than 156 games. This result had a huge bearing on the final standings. The most notable was the Detroit Tigers winning the AL East with an 86-70 record over the Red Sox who finished at 85-70 or a 1/2 game behind.

1985 – These were a result of the owners desiring to impose salary caps and making major changes to the salary arbitration process. It lasted two days (August 6 and 7). The players won a raise in minimum salaries and better pension funding as well as no changes in the arbitration service time. Following the strike there was still a high degree of distrust between the parties. Team owners were found to be guilty of collusion after it was discovered that they agreed privately that over a three year period they would refuse to bid on free agents in an effort to suppress player salaries. The guilty verdict came as a result of MLBPA grievance filings and led to the league paying out over $400 million to the players.

1990 Lockout – The old agreement between the two parties had expired on December 31, 1989. The owners sought to bring in revenue sharing and a salary cap but the MLBPA opposed this effort vehemently. The owners “locked out the players” by effectively killing “MLB” spring training. The end came on March 18, 1990 after an agreement was reached on studying the idea of revenue sharing and increasing the player minimum salary.

1994-1995 “THE STRIKE” – This is the one that almost killed baseball. Once again the owners desired to install a salary cap. The MLBPA response was to go on strike in the middle of the season. The World Series was cancelled for the first time in 90 years. Fans around the country were furious at both sides as the interest in the “national pastime” suffered tremendously. Both sides were forced back to work (on the field) on March 29,1995 after a ruling by future Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor denied the owners effort to use replacement players to start the 1995 season. The old contract was extended by three years and the 1995 season was set at 144 games.

The 2021-22 Lockout – (December 2, 2021 – March 10, 2022) After the CBA expired, MLB owners voted for a unanimous lockout. The issues were revenue sharing, competitive balance, raising the minimum salary and updating the parameters around the luxury tax threshold. In the end, after a delay of spring training, both sides compromised and the end result was a complete 162 game season and a CBA with a 5-year duration.

So here we are in early June 2026. The current CBA runs out on December 1st this year at 11:59 PM EST.

News flash!!!! The central item that has divided the two parties for over 50 years is still front and center. MLB owners still want a salary cap!

The current proposal by the owners is to have a “hard cap” of $245.3 million and this time they have included a proposal for a “floor” of $171.2 million plus a 50-50 revenue split with the players. The effort is to save the owners from themselves. Add to that the fact that fans have seen the success of Cap/Floor caps in the NBA, NHL and NFL and the pressure is on MLB owners to figure it out.

The MLBPA sees any institution of a salary cap/floor as a non-starter. They have fought against this issue for over 50 years. In their opinion the current agreement that has “competitive balance tax” or CBT that penalizes high spenders can be augmented with a new “competitive integrity tax” or CIT that will serve as a counter balance for teams that don’t spend 50% of the CBT. In other words there is a minimum spending entry point for all teams. The CIT would have escalation clauses with respect to a reduction in revenue sharing. The MLBPA also wants the CBT “base” to start at $300 million. MLBPA is also looking for the base MLB salary to increase to $1.5 million and have a guaranteed 10% raise attached to them as well as an increase in funding for the pre-arbitration players from $50 million to $180 million. Additionally, MLBPA wants changes to the free agency with players aged 30+ with five years time eligible for free agency.

The reality comes down to this. The base salary issues, pre-arbitration bonus pool money and adjustments to free agency eligibility are the easy part. These issue can be negotiated rather pragmatically as they have done in the past. The hard part is the salary cap! The MLBPA is a hard no in this regard and the owners need the Salary Cap. The MLBPA views the cap as a restriction to the free agent process in which teams would be able to hold down the salaries of players. The owners see this as a way to establish fixed costs and also ensure that all owners are investing a minimum amount of money in their product and increasing the values of all MLB franchises.

At this point in time, it appears that the sides are technically talking to each other, but in reality have reached a proverbial stalemate. The end result will mean that beginning on the morning of December 2nd, the owners will have a lockout in place. This will have an immediate effect on the 2027 season (think 2021-2022 lockout), free agency and player trade discussions will come to a halt, spring training will likely be delayed and the 2027 season may or may not start on time.

In the end, the fan suffers. The venerable offseason practice for the fans of 30 MLB teams engaging in “hot stove” talk is then suspended in a labor contract negotiation cryogenic soup or “suspended animation”. Baseball cannot afford a repeat of the disaster that was THE STRIKE of 1994-1995. It has worked too hard to regain the fans interest and respect in the last 30+ years. In an age of small attention spans and even smaller disposable income, baseball could be at risk of becoming an afterthought and would forever lose the moniker of being “America’s Pastime”.

If the MLB owners and the MLBPA allow this to happen then it may mark the beginning of the end for the game. This is the perfect time to remember this quote from Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War”:

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster.”