Ferrari haven’t seen the results they expected from Lewis Hamilton so far this season. Perhaps, with hindsight, they may wish they’d renewed Carlos Sainz’s deal.
But based on paddock intel Alex Jacques has exclusively shared with F1 Oversteer, Hamilton himself may end up regretting the move. He brought his record-breaking partnership with Mercedes to an end after 12 seasons.
Hamilton opted out of the second year of his contract to facilitate his 2025 move to Ferrari. His contract would have been up for renegotiation this season.
Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Based on his current performance levels, it’s not necessarily guaranteed that Toto Wolff would have offered him a favourable extension, particularly amid the rise of Kimi Antonelli. But this is pure speculation because Hamilton showed a lack of faith in Mercedes’ ability to deliver another title-winning package.
Should Lewis Hamilton have kept faith in Mercedes instead of joining Ferrari?
Jacques was asked about which teams are well-placed for the 2026 regulations. He says the ‘majority of people in the paddock’ are backing Mercedes.
While this is just a ‘rumour’ for now, it’s likely rooted in dyno projections and conversations between engineers with long-standing relationships. Mercedes have apparently built the most powerful ICE, but they will also have to nail the battery, which will account for around 50% of the car’s total output.
The consensus is that power units will play a bigger role in determining the pecking order next year. If Mercedes are the team to beat, as they were in 2014, then Hamilton’s decision to leave may look like a mistake.
SUPPLIERTEAMSMercedesMercedes, McLaren, WilliamsFerrariFerrari, Haas, CadillacRed Bull PowertrainsRed Bull, Racing BullsHondaAston MartinAudiAudiEvery F1 team’s engine for 2026
It’s worth noting that Formula 1 has introduced a ‘catch-up’ rule for any manufacturers who are lagging behind. They will be afforded more development opportunities, so the advantage of early pace-setters won’t necessarily be set in stone long-term.
“So, the new regulations for next year are the most dramatic change year to year of the technical rulebook that I can think of in the history of Formula 1.
“It’s very dramatic what’s going to be required. And I think the majority of people in the paddock expect – and it’s very, very similar to what we had in 2014 with the new engine formula there – a lot of people expect Mercedes to have created the class of the field engine.
“Now, obviously, this is all rumour and conjecture; you have no way of knowing, but obviously, these power units have been on the dyno for a long time, and people talk about what numbers they’re getting compared to others.
“These people grow up in the sport together, and these whispers emerge. No full way to know until we go testing, formally in Bahrain next year, but the expectation is that much like the last dramatic rules reset we had of power units in 2014, the Mercedes are expected to have done a strong job.
“And then the question becomes, where is everyone else relative? Is it simply a case that you must have a Mercedes power unit to compete? I think there’s been a bit of discussion about the rules.
“The one thing that I’d stress is there was a lot of discussion about the new rules in 2014 when they came in, and we’ve had some of the best years in the history of Formula 1 since then. So, these things are dramatic when they come in, and they evolve quickly due to the rampant rate of development in Formula 1.
“So, wherever we begin with the rules, it will evolve very, very quickly. But yeah, excited to see how it plays out, because it’s a completely different formula.
“I also think that you’re always going to get everyone converging and not a massive spread on the lap times, purely because it’s the budget cap.
“I think that rule has done wonders for Formula 1 and led to the most competitive era. If you consider that, you know, Senna used to be on pole from Alain Prost in the late 80s by 1.7 seconds, and now a margin like that covers the entire field in Q1. It’s remarkable.”
‘Upset’ Charles Leclerc should make Ferrari contract demand as he dominates Lewis Hamilton
Hamilton is trying to direct Ferrari, no doubt tapping into the secrets of Mercedes’ dominance. But the team’s engine development was likely advanced before he’d even stepped through the Maranello door.
Ralf Schumacher reckons that Ferrari have already decided to back Leclerc as their de facto number one driver. That means they won’t be led by Hamilton’s advice regardless.
Hamilton’s base Ferrari salary is £39m, which is less than the guaranteed sum at Mercedes. However, bonuses can take it as high as £83m.
One journalist believes Charles Leclerc is ‘upset’ about Hamilton’s wages, which are significantly higher. Based on his superior results, he’d be entitled to demand a pay rise.