Welcome to Trump’s America, The i Paper’s World Insight series presenting the sharpest, deepest thinking on an era-defining shift in history and politics, investigating how Donald Trump and his administration have changed the US and the world – and where we go from here.
• How America’s conspiracy theorists broke the US
• The US is becoming impossible to live in
• I told Trump over dinner he didn’t have my loyalty – it sealed my fate
• This is how the world will look after Trump
• I’ve seen what ICE has done to Minnesota. Farage wants to import that to the UK
• The men who want to stop women voting
• Trump isn’t damaging America. He’s reinventing it’
Dreaming about retirement is an American obsession: this is an immigrant society where people work their socks off to provide a better future for their children.
At 57, I hope my golden years will be lived out in “coastal Grandma” style, full of grandchildren, beach walks, photogenic dogs and some watercolour painting before cocktail hour. I’m already learning bridge and Mahjong – next on the list is Canasta. I plan on escaping the bitterly cold New York City winters by flying south to Florida for a few weeks a year, where I’ll play tennis and make new friends.
The hope is that at some point you can stop working yourself into the ground and enjoy the fruits of your labours. But if you can’t afford to retire, you’ll just have to keep working. The bills keep on coming, as the owner of my local pet shop observed, while we were comparing notes on our recently replaced hips – they’re made of titanium and will outlast us, which is one less thing to worry about.
How much money do you need to retire comfortably in America? It’s a question that millions grapple with – and earlier this month, those nearing retirement age received a nasty shock. Retirees, who currently receive $2,081 (£1,570) month in social security checks on average, could face a 22 per cent reduction in benefits by the end of 2032.
Here’s the alarming news. The retirement safety net, established in 1935 and funded by payroll taxes, is running out of money. The trustees of the US Social Security system have projected a shortfall in the fund’s surplus unless Congress acts. And soon.
Why? The fund is collecting fewer taxes as a result of President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, plus tax revenues overall are shrinking due to declining fertility rates and reduced immigration. And Social Security’s finances are under pressure because the US population is ageing.
Baby boomers are retiring – and collecting their social security checks. Congress is expected to find a fix as retirees are the most reliable voting bloc in America. But with the US national debt exceeding GDP, there is a limit to the amount of creative accounting which can be done without freaking out the bond markets and further driving up the cost of borrowing.
In the 1950s, seniors made up a mere eight per cent of the population. In 2024, that percentage had increased to 18 per cent – and by 2030, more than a fifth of Americans are projected to be over the age of 65. America is greying – and that’s expensive.
Laura Trevelyan, a naturalised American citizen, dreams of escaping the bitterly cold New York City winters in her retirement by flying to Florida (Photo: Kelley Holmgren)
Eek. I recently logged into my social security account to see how much I will be eligible for every month should I wait until I’m 67, which is what’s known here as Full Retirement Age, to claim retirement benefits. You can claim Social Security at 62, known as Early Claiming, but you get less. The monthly amount I would get looks OK should I wait 10 years to start claiming – but not if the fund is running out of money. If I am going to be part of the first generation to face cuts in Social Security, I’m willing to bet that our benefits will be reduced by a lot more than 22 per cent.
Then there’s rising inflation. Grocery bills are up almost 25 per cent since the pandemic, and now the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven up energy costs which are feeding their way into the price of everything. If you add fears about permanently high inflation to worries about the health of entitlement programmes, it’s not surprising that just 61 per cent of Americans are very or somewhat confident about having enough resources for retirement. That’s down considerably from a high of 72 per cent in 2021.
The richest Americans have become even richer because the stock market has been booming – take Elon Musk, as an extreme example, who became a trillionaire last Friday when his Space X rocket company made its stock market debut. The wealthiest 10 per cent of Americans own 87 per cent of all stocks – so they’re seeing the benefits of the AI boom which is driving Wall Street trading to new heights, at least for now. Musk and his fellow tech bros don’t need to worry about affording their old age. But everyone else is dealing with higher home insurance due to more frequent flooding and fires as the climate gets warmer, stubborn inflation and the prospect of a social safety net which has huge holes in it.
Most Americans simply aspire to living in dignity in old age. A recent survey from an insurance company found that roughly 70 per cent of US workers who haven’t retired yet have considered pushing back their retirement date. Nearly half of those surveyed said they were afraid they wouldn’t have enough money to retire. Other research suggests that about 58 per cent of workers retire earlier than they intended – typically because of poor health, being laid off and caring for family members – with just 21 per cent of those surveyed saying they retired early because they could afford it.
Retirement may not be a choice. Yet if you don’t have enough money to retire and you’re forced out of full time work by ill health, you could be forced to stack shelves at a supermarket part-time just to make ends meet.
The future of healthcare is another worry for older Americans. My older friends tell me how much they love Medicare – the federal health insurance programme for the over 65s. While not entirely free – there are things like deductibles and fixed fees towards doctor’s visits and prescriptions which you have to pay – provided you or your spouse worked and paid Medicare taxes for enough years then you’re eligible.
Medicare is a little like the NHS, but only for seniors, my retired pals tell me. If you never paid Medicare taxes, then you have to pay a monthly premium to get the care. Confused? Welcome to the American health insurance system. So while the encouraging news is that Medicare exists – the bad news is that it too is facing a financial cliff. By 2033, Medicare’s revenues will only cover 89 per cent of the costs, thanks to taxes being reduced.
On top of the uncertainty surrounding the future of pensions and healthcare is the question of who will take care of us as we age. America is the ultimate mobile society, and it’s a geographically vast one. Many of my friends live thousands of miles away from their ageing parents, and aren’t in a position to look after them. While many elderly Americans can live at home independently, others need care at home or in a residential home.
Immigrants make up an estimated 28 per cent of the workforce in the long-term care industry, and care has reportedly been disrupted at homes as workers are too scared to show up after Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown ended deportation protections for thousands of migrants with temporary legal status. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of the Trump administration’s bid to end what’s known as temporary protected status (TPS) in July. If the administration prevails, the question of who will work in the care industry remains a pressing one.
The US fertility rate is also declining – which could leave us with fewer younger working adults to look after an ageing population and fewer taxpayers to support our social services programmes. Immigrants traditionally drive population growth – so if the Maga movement succeeds in curbing immigration in the long term, we could have a shrinking population and fewer people prepared to work in nursing homes.
As America’s pensioners worry about their financial futures, and who will care for them in their old age, two members of Congress introduced a bill last week to create an independent commission charged with finding “common sense” solutions to ensure the survival of social security. More of that kind of sensible thinking, please, I say as a naturalised American citizen who hopes to enjoy her golden years on this side of the pond.
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Why Bill Gates has named three women he had affairs with
Bill Gates has named three women he had affairs with and claimed the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein had “brainstormed” ways to blackmail him about his infidelity.
Caption: BERLIN, GERMANY – OCTOBER 14: Bill Gates speaks at the pledge session of the 2024 World Health Summit on October 14, 2024 in Berlin, Germany. The session raised over USD 1 billion from a variety of international donors. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Photographer: Sean Gallup
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Source: Getty Images Europe
Copyright: 2024 Getty Images
Why is Gates speaking out?
Gates revealed information about his affairs while speaking to the US House Oversight and Government Reform Committee as part of an investigation into Epstein.
The House Oversight Committee released transcripts of the testimony by Gates from closed-door depositions before the committee in mid-June.
The committee also released the testimony of former executive secretary of Epstein, Lesley Groff.
The names Gates gave
Caption: NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 26: Bill Gates speaks onstage for a special conversation during “What???s Next? The Future With Bill Gates”at The Paris Theater on September 26, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin/Getty Images for Netflix)
Photographer: Roy Rochlin
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Gates named two Russian women: Mila Antonova, a bridge player, and Karima Nigmatulina, a nuclear physicist.
Gates also admitted to a third affair with Dr Alice Jacobs Nesselrodt, a medical entrepreneur.
Analysis
4 min read
A closer look at the detail
During the interview, Gates said Epstein discovered the two affairs he had with the Russian women and suggested that Epstein had “contemplated blackmailing me”.
The Microsoft founder said: “As you look at these emails, you know, it looks like Mr Epstein’s brainstorming was going in that direction.”
OPINION
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Big Read
5 min read
Gates questioned about Andrew
Gates was also questioned about his connections to Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, who had a long-term association with Epstein.
Caption: (COMBO) This combination of files photographs created on February 1, 2026 shows Britain’s Prince Andrew (L), Duke of York arriving to attend a Requiem Mass, a Catholic funeral service, for the late Katharine, Duchess of Kent, at Westminster Cathedral in London on September 16, 2025 ; and an undated handout photograph obtained on July 11, 2019 courtesy of the New York State Sex Offender Registry showing Jeffrey Epstein (R). A second Jeffrey Epstein accuser has alleged the late US sex offender sent her to Britain for a sexual encounter with former prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, the BBC reported. (Photo by Jordan Pettitt and Handout / various sources / AFP via Getty Images) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – MANDATORY CREDIT “AFP PHOTO / New York State Sex Offender Registry” – HANDOUT – NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS – DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS
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Caption: LONDON, ENGLAND – APRIL 18: (L-R) Bill Gates talks to the Prince Andrew, Duke of York and Prince Charles, Prince of Wales during the Malaria Summit in Northumberland Avenue on April 18, 2018, in London, England. The Commonwealth Business Forum (CHOGM) will discuss practical ways to enhance trade, showcase investment opportunities and promote sustainable development. (Photo by Dominic Lipinski-WPA Pool/Getty Images)
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Gates said he had met the former prince twice, but that the meetings weren’t arranged through Epstein. When questioned about another Epstein affiliate, Peter Mandelson, Gates said he had not met the former ambassador to the US.
What we know about Bedford train crash as driver ‘passed red signal’
A train driver who died in a crash near Bedford passed a red signal moments before the collision, investigators have said.
Here is everything we know about the incident so far.
Caption: The scene just south of the Elstow interchange between the A421 and the A6 in Bedford South after two East Midlands Railway (EMR) trains were involved in a collision around 5.15pm on Friday. One person has died, 28 people are still in hospital with nine in a critical condition after after two passenger trains collided near Bedford. Picture date: Saturday June 20, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Chris Radburn/PA Wire
Photographer: Chris Radburn
Provider: Chris Radburn/PA Wire
Source: PA
NEWS
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What do we know so far?
The driver who died at the scene has been named as 60-year-old Shaun Burton. Burton died when the East Midlands Railway train he was driving hit the back of a stationary train run by the same operator.
The Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) said that Burton’s train proceeded past a red signal near the scene of the crash in Elstow, near Bedford, at 5.15pm on Friday.
LIVE
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CRIME
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A closer look at the detail
Images from a CCTV camera on the train show a signal near the scene of the crash “was displaying a red aspect as the train approached and then passed it,” the RAIB said.
Caption: BEDFORD, UNITED KINGDOM – JUNE 20: Officials work at the site of two East Midlands Railway (EMR) trains which crashed into each other in Bedford, United K????ngdom on June 20, 2026. One person has died and several others were injured in a collision involving two passenger trains near Bedford. (Photo by Jacqueline Lawrie/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Photographer: Anadolu
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Source: Anadolu
Caption: Undated family handout photo issued by the British Transport Police of train driver Shaun Burton, 60, who died when two trains collided near Bedford on Friday. The 60-year-old died when the East Midlands Railway (EMR) train he was driving crashed into the back of another on the same line shortly after 5pm on Friday. Issue date: Sunday June 21, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Family Handout/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Family Handout
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Copyright: PA
Preliminary analysis shows the train was travelling at 76mph when its brakes were applied nine seconds before the crash. The stationary train involved in the crash had come to a halt “unexpectedly” after a fault with its automatic warning system equipment caused its brakes to apply.
What happens next?
The RAIB said its full investigation will consider “the actions of those involved and any factors that may have influenced them”.
The branch also said it will look at the “positioning, visibility and conspicuity” of the signal that Burton passed.
No timeline has been given for when the investigation will come to a close.
Big Read
4 min read
Martha’s Rule gives patients and their loved ones the right to a second medical opinion. Martha (pictured) died of sepsis in 2021 (Photo: Mills/Laity family photograph/PA Wire)
maternity
Martha’s Rule to be rolled out to maternity settings in England
Mothers and babies will be protected by Martha’s Rule in England after a review at an NHS trust found opportunities had been missed to prevent harm, the Government has said.
Here is everything you need to know.
What is Martha’s Rule?
Martha’s Rule will give families formalised, 24/7 access to a second opinion.
The scheme was created after 13-year-old Martha Mills developed sepsis while under the care of King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust in south London in 2021.
A coroner ruled she would have survived if medics had picked up on the warning signs of her condition.
A separate review into maternity services at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust found leaders at the trust knew there were serious issues in its maternity department but failed to take action.
Some of the key findings of the review were that women and families were consistently not listened to which led to missed opportunities to prevent harm.
How will the rule be rolled out?
The Department of Health and Social Care said Martha’s Rule will be extended to all maternity settings in England, allowing parents to request a rapid review if a baby or mother’s condition is deteriorating and they are concerned staff aren’t responding.
Doctors are receiving a 3.5 per cent headline pay rise in their June pay packets which is backdated to April (Photo: Peter Byrne/PA)
Caption: A medical worker assists a premature Palestinian baby who lies in an incubator at the maternity ward of Shifa Hospital, which according to health officials is about to shut down as it runs out of fuel and power, as the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas continues, in Gaza City October 22, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Al-Masri
Photographer: STRINGER
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Source: X80002
The scheme has been rolled out for patients at every acute hospital in England and has been piloted in 15 maternity and neonatal settings. Its further expansion is expected this year.
What else will change?
1The Department of Health said there will be new checks and measures on mortuaries to ensure the remains of children are treated with dignity and respect.
2Staff who deliberately withhold information about failures during reviews could face up to two years in prison.
3The Human Tissue Authority will require all mortuaries to review their internal records dating from 2015 to 2026 to ensure incidents have been reported.
Health Secretary’s remarks
No family should ever have to battle the system that is meant to care and protect them, that is why Martha’s Rule is so fundamental.
james murray, HEALTH SECRETARY
James Murray arrives at Downing Street for a cabinet meeting on 19 May (Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
How a five minute walk could make you feel happier at work
Taking five-minute “movement snack” breaks every hour is the best way to boost wellbeing without losing efficiency, a study has found.
(Photo: Digital Vision/Getty).
What you need to know
Portrait of happy businesswoman holding laptop at office – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
The study by Columbia University surveyed over 11,000 US employees after asking them to try walking breaks at work for two weeks.
A five-minute walk each hour led to the biggest improvement in the employees’ productivity, mood and alertness.
Only one in ten workers would be happy to work less and earn less, according to the think-tank. (Photo: Joe Giddens/PA Wire)
(Photo: Layla Bird/Getty).
The researchers also found that taking walking breaks every 30 minutes was disruptive to the employees’ work.
The expert view
A walk break every hour for five minutes is enough to improve mood and lower fatigue. And people found this realistic and attainable…Even though it may seem counter-intuitive, movement breaks actually can boost work performance.
Lead researcher Keith Diaz told the bbc
44 per cent of working-age adults in the UK experienced conflict at work last year (Photo: Getty)
Who else supported the findings?
Emily McGrath, senior cardiac nurse at the British Heart Foundation, supported the findings, saying that “simple additions of movement can improve overall health”.
However, she cautioned, “the study relied on self-reported data and was short-term, so longer research is needed”.
WELLBEING
7 min read
LIFESTYLE
4 min read
‘Humid heat is harder heat,’ one expert says (Photo: Getty)
Weather
All the best ways to sleep in a heat wave
A brutal heatwave is descending on the UK this week as a “heat dome” continues to scorch Europe. Forecasters are warning of soaring temperatures and tropical nights.
Here are some top tips on how to stay chilled in your bed this week.
Top tips for better sleep
Draw the shades, curtains and blinds during the hottest part of the day.
Have a cool or lukewarm shower or bath just before going to bed.
Wet your face and arms with a towel, then stand in front of a fan.
Soak your feet in cold water for 10 minutes before going to bed.
Apply cool wet cloths, cold water or ice packs to the skin.
Remove winter bedding and opt for lightweight covers, perhaps just a sheet.
Wear lightweight, loose-fitting clothing.
Drink plenty of water during the day to keep your body hydrated and cool.
When using a fan, have the bedroom door open to allow for airflow
Flip the pillow to the other side if you wake up hot.
What should you avoid?
1Do not exercise close to bedtime, as it will increase your internal temperature.
2Avoid hot, heavy or spicy food/meals, particularly near bedtime.
3Alcohol and caffeinated drinks increase dehydration and should be avoided.
4Do not sleep in your car with the air-conditioner running when the car is not moving, as there may be a build-up of carbon dioxide.
What is the latest forecast?
After slightly lower temperatures for the next couple of days, the heat is set to build over the weekend, with temperatures in the high 20s and reaching 30°C in some areas on Sunday.
Caption: LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM – JUNE 22: People use umbrellas as hot weather continues in London, United Kingdom, on June 22, 2026. The UK Met Office has issued a rare red weather warning for parts of England and Wales ahead of an expected heatwave later this week. (Photo by Rasid Necati Aslim/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Photographer: Anadolu
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Source: Anadolu
Experts warn of infrastructure breakdown and excess deaths in the UK as the world heats up faster than predicted (Photo: Brook Mitchell/Getty)
Temperatures could peak in excess of 35°C in central and south-east England, and more widely around 32°C within the area covered by the warning, with Monday and Tuesday most likely to see the peak of the heat.
MOTORING
Major cities could lose one in seven parking spaces from ‘carspreading’
Caption: A busy street with traffic in London, England
Photographer: MarioGuti
Provider: Getty Images
Source: E+
London and other major European cities risk losing up to one in seven on-street parking spaces if car sizes continue to increase at the current rate, new analysis warns.
Here is everything you need to know.
Too many ‘oversized’ cars
Think-tank Transport and Environment, which conducted the study, warned that the trend towards larger cars – which critics refer to as ‘carspreading’ – could increase road deaths.
Current laws only give police the power to fine drivers who leave their vehicles in a dangerous position or cause an obstruction (Photo: Sue Thatcher/Getty)
Ministers in talks with more local authorities to expand national parking app (Photo: Getty)
The study claimed streets are becoming dominated by “oversized” vehicles that cities “simply weren’t designed for”.
What could happen if trends continue?
The research found that cars have increased in length by 1.2cm and height by 0.5cm per year since 2000.
Capacity for on-street parking in cities will drop by between 8.5 per cent and 14 per cent by 2040.
Following this trend, London would lose 100,000 parking spaces.
The rise of larger cars could lead to about 400 additional road deaths annually by 2040 across the UK and European Union.
The UK car industry is concerned about the impact of tariffs (Photo: AFP via Getty Images)
The expert view
Our streets are dominated by oversized SUVs
Transport and Environment UK director Anna Krajinska said: “After 25 years of relentless growth, our streets are dominated by oversized SUVs that cities simply weren’t designed for.
“The result is a lose-lose: councils are forced to reshape streets around larger vehicles, sacrificing parking capacity, public space and safety in the process.”
heatwave
What is an omega block – and how is it causing extreme weather?
A red weather warning for extreme heat covering an area stretching from London to Swansea and Somerset to Birmingham was issued by the Met Office (Photo: Gareth Fuller/PA Wire)
The intense heatwave currently gripping Western Europe is being sustained by a weather pattern known as an omega block.
Here is everything you need to know about omega blocks – and if climate change means they could become more frequent.
What is an omega block?
An omega block takes its name from the shape of the Greek letter Ω — with a bulge of warmer, settled high pressure held between two cooler low pressure systems.
The “blocking” element refers to how the high pressure area of warm air gets stuck.
LIFESTYLE
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LIFESTYLE
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What is the result?
Under normal conditions, the jet stream carries weather systems steadily from west to east. But during an omega block, that flow becomes disrupted and can buckle dramatically north and south.
Last month saw the hottest ever May temperatures on record, with the mercury rising to 35.1C (Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images)
Heatwave conditions come to an end this weekend but there are signs they will be back next month (Photo: Rasid Necati Aslim/Anadolu/ Getty)
The result is that hot, still air gets lodged over the same area. Omega blocks typically last between three and 10 days, but can persist for weeks.
What happens during an Omega block?
Caption: A commuter uses a fan in an attempt to cool down, as they exit a London Underground tube carriage, in London on June 23, 2026. Multiple schools in England shut early on June 23 and set to remain closed for two more days with a heatwave expected to set new records in the UK as it spreads across Europe. (Photo by Toby Shepheard / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: TOBY SHEPHEARD
Provider: AFP via Getty Images
Source: AFP
Copyright: AFP or licensors
Under the high-pressure area, conditions become hot and dry.
The high pressure also suppresses cloud formation, resulting in clear, sunny skies that allow temperatures to climb.
OPINION
2 min read
Is climate change to blame?
Scientists have not yet agreed upon how climate change is affecting the frequency of blocking events. However, scientific consensus is clear that climate change is increasing the frequency of heatwaves.
Greenhouse gas emissions have heated the planet by about 1.3°C since pre-industrial times. That warmer baseline means heatwaves reach higher temperatures.
Analysis
3 min read
Analysis
3 min read
Caption: Embryo selection for IVF, light micrograph.
Photographer: Science Photo Library – ZEPHYR
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Brand X
fertility
Most add-on IVF treatments ‘do not improve chances of a baby’
Most “add-on” IVF treatments cannot be shown to improve fertility and may be a costly waste of time, research suggests.
Patients are being bombarded with widespread misinformation, while clinics, forums and social media can overstate the benefits, experts said.
What the study found
The study, published in the journal Lancet Obstetrics, Gynaecology and Women’s Health, looked at 85 existing clinical trials on fertility add-ons.
These include steroids to reduce inflammation, plasma injections and genetic testing.
Researchers found either no effect on fertility, inconclusive results or a small but uncertain benefit for a handful of procedures.
LIFESTYLE
5 min read
What did the researchers say?
In many cases, the quality of evidence was poor, contributing to uncertainty regarding effectiveness, and many studies [of those originally considered] were excluded for trustworthiness concerns.
Couple doing IVF In Vitro Fertilisation – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
A closer look at the findings
The study found either no effect on fertility or inconclusive results for:
Acupuncture (inserting thin needles into points on the body).
Corticosteroids to reduce inflammation and suppress immune system activity.
Endometrial receptivity testing (a biopsy to assess gene expression patterns).
Intralipid infusion, when a liquid containing fats is put into the blood.
Injection or infusion of platelet-rich plasma into the blood or womb and pre-implantation genetic testing to check whether embryos have the expected number of chromosomes.
Some benefits identified
The review found weak evidence for some possible benefit for three IVF add-ons, including EmbryoGlue (thought to improve the chance of the embryo implanting in the womb).
The study found this may increase the probability of pregnancy by about 25 per cent and some improvement in the proportion of live births, however the effect on live birth rates was not considered robust.
LIFESTYLE
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LIFESTYLE
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