UK INFLATION DATA COULD SEE ANOTHER UNUSUAL STERLING REACTION
British inflation is due Wednesday, and analysts think there’s a risk it could come in hotter than the Bank of England’s projections.
However, while that is likely to cause a selloff in front-end British rates – as markets reduce bets on any more BoE easing this year, Deutsche Bank reckon that won’t do much for the pound.
Since December last year, they say in a Monday note, the correlation between upside services inflation surprises and the pound has been weaker than before, because, they think, “of the focus this year on the impact of rising yields on the UK’s fiscal position.”
They point to January and May this year “when long-end gilt yields had either risen sharply in the preceding weeks and/or were hovering around key levels and the pound saw a small relief rally on the downside inflation miss (in Jan) and a small softening despite a beat (in May)”
Gilt yields have been rising again in recent weeks, so there could be another idiosyncratic reaction to the inflation data by the pound.
(Alun John)
*****
EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:
SMALL CAPS WAKE UP – JUST NOT ON WALL ST YET CLICK HERE
STOXX DIPS, RENEWABLES RALLY ON US SUBSIDY CLARITY CLICK HERE
BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPEAN FUTURES STEADY, NOVO JUMPS CLICK HERE
GEOPOLITICS DOMINATES, BEFORE FED TAKES THE STAGE CLICK HERE