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The Deal Space: MLB trade season starts … when?
Major League Baseball is about a month out from its Aug. 3 trade deadline. As push rapidly comes to shove, a huge segment of the league faces the same question and likely answer.
The question: Should we buy or sell?
The answer: Probably neither.
In a world with six playoff teams per league, the ranks of the sellers are a lot thinner than they used to be. Coming into this weekend’s series, 22 of 30 teams were within five games of a postseason spot. A number of teams that were in clear rebuild mode (like the Nationals and Cardinals) are in the thick of an unusually tough NL race. The AL wild-card hunt is chock full of teams that haven’t been good but are well within postseason striking distance because almost the whole league is mediocre or worse. This league!
The stove is still going to get hot, though. Tarik Skubal could be the biggest deadline pitcher prize since CC Sabathia made his legendary run with the Brewers in 2008. Otherwise, the deadline harvest depends on how a few front offices interpret their teams’ play over the next four weeks.
The Twins have the Nos. 2 and 3 players on The Athletic’s deadline big board (OF Byron Buxton, SP Joe Ryan).
The Astros have three of the top 13 and four of the top 20.
The Angels have a handful of valuable trade chips and are the rare team to be definitively out of contention by now. But the team has been so poorly run for so long that it’s not certain the new general manager will even be deputized to trade those players.
Where will the deals come from, then? Simplest to start at the top. The Yankees, Rays, Braves, Phillies, Brewers and champion Dodgers all have 85 percent chances or better to see October, per FanGraphs. A few others (like the endlessly aggressive Padres) smell like buyers, too. If a few wild-card teams sink like rocks, you could imagine action picking way up.
Deadline fanfic time: I asked Levi Weaver, author of our great, free baseball newsletter, to design one trade he’d like to see two teams make for the sake of our collective entertainment:
💬 Well, there is an outlandish “gun-for-hire” scenario I posed in The Windup recently, but we’re talking about trades here, so, let’s see: The Cubs have a whole pitching staff on the IL but are somehow still in the NL Central race while holding a wild-card spot. That’s a situation screaming for pitching additions. Let’s assume they’re outbid for Tarik Skubal — both because they likely will be, and also, it’s boring to propose Skubal-to-the-Cubs.
My next thought was Anaheim — with new interim GM John Mozeliak at the helm, the Angels should be more likely to recognize what a seller looks like in the mirror. But both Reid Detmers and José Soriano aren’t due to hit free agency until 2029, and assuming the Cubs’ pitching staff comes back healthy next year, they don’t need to overpay.
This situation is screaming for a rental starter. Enter: Casey Mize. As our big board says: “If the price tag is more ‘get you to the playoffs’ rather than ‘help you win the World Series,’ he’s a fine acquisition.” If the Cubs can use Mize to help them keep the ship afloat until Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown and Jameson Taillon return, that feels like a reasonable move?
Personally, I believe Skubal would enjoy Pittsburgh in the late summer. Let’s move on.
News to Know
Molly Darlington / Getty Images
Canada’s best-ever World Cup
Before this one, Canada had never gotten a draw in a World Cup. As co-hosts they’ve had their first draw, first win, first knockout win … it’s unquestionably been a success, writes Joshua Kloke. Even in yesterday’s 3-0 loss to Morocco — who made the semifinals in Qatar — Canada dominated the first half. It’s wild to think their best player, Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies, was limited by a hamstring injury to 15 minutes in this tournament, and they lost midfield linchpin Ismaël Koné to a broken leg in their second game. A respectable showing that deserves at least a sustained clap, if not an ovation.
Morocco’s quarterfinal opponent will be France, who struggled to break down Paraguay before winning 1-0 on a second-half Kylian Mbappé penalty. That 4-1 USMNT win in the opener looks even more impressive given Paraguay only conceded two other goals.
A rising star’s breakthrough win
Alexandra Eala was already a national sporting hero in the Philippines but had yet to make it past the second round in a major before this year’s Wimbledon. Her first third-round match: a shock win over defending champ Iga Świątek. She played boldly, and her comments after were super endearing. She’s one to watch, for sure.
Also yesterday, Serena Williams’ Wimbledon comeback ended after she and sister Venus withdrew from doubles.
Novak Djokovic (No. 7) goes for a record-breaking 106th Wimbledon men’s singles win today against qualifier Roman Safiullin (8:30 a.m. ET on ESPN), while women’s No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka meets No. 14 Naomi Osaka (11:30 a.m., ESPN).
More News
MLB announced this year’s All-Star starters, pitchers and reserves. Paul Skenes over Zack Wheeler 👀? Lineups and staffs here.
A postgame fireworks show malfunctioned after Friday’s NWSL game between Angel City FC and the Orlando Pride, sending fans running for cover. Scary.
Knicks great Patrick Ewing is expected to join the Wizards as an assistant coach.
Former Red Bull F1 boss Christian Horner, fired a year ago this month, is releasing a memoir titled “Drive.” Clever!
Trans runner Nikki Hiltz beat three-time Olympic gold medalist Faith Kipyegon with the world’s best mile time this year, then spoke about last week’s Supreme Court ruling that upheld state bans on trans girls and women competing against cisgender women and girls. More here.
Watch Guide
Clive Mason / Getty Images
📺 F1: British Grand Prix
10 a.m. ET on Apple TV
The talk of the sport this week is Mercedes’ George Russell, showing cautious signs of a return to elite form. He’s never finished better than fifth in his home race at Silverstone. He starts fourth, with teammate/wunderkind Kimi Antonelli on pole.
📺 World Cup: Brazil vs. Norway
4 p.m. ET on Fox
“Welcome to Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil, an ocean of serenity.” As Nick Miller explains, calmness and patience are now watchwords for a national team with a reputation for beauty and chaos.
📺 World Cup: Mexico vs. England
8 p.m. ET on Fox
More round of 16 play. This one is a home game for El Tri in Mexico City. If I could be at one sporting event so far this year, just for the atmosphere, it would be this. Good story here on the highly unusual mental challenge the English will face on the road.
Get tickets to games like this here.
Pulse Picks
Manny Carabel / Getty Images
Most-shared features on The Athletic last week:
Recently remembered you can often check out popular cookbooks from your local public library. It’s an easy way to trial whether they’d really be useful on your shelf long-term. — Torrey Hart
Why doesn’t cycling star Tadej Pogačar have more blue-chip sponsors? A surprisingly fascinating situation.
Sei Pizza in Beverley Hills. When my mates read this, they’ll give me a good kicking to bring me back down to earth (and I’m hardly going to be a regular patron) but their food is an absolute winner. Get the mushroom one, if you’re asking. — Phil Hay
The rise of social media and smartphones is the most disruptive change to athletes’ mental performance in decades. Here’s why.
“Silo,” the best show on TV, is back. Apple TV is worth it just for that. — Chris Branch
Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Travis Kelce married a singer.
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