As Geelong tumbles down the table, one game looks likely to decide the all-important top six. And there’s a surprising new side tipped to earn a wildcard.
This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture with six rounds left and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out, ahead of the AFL’s first 10-team finals series. See our predicted final ladder below.
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How does The Run Home work?
We’re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.
For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.
It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.
It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.
At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we’re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 1000 times.
Fox Footy runs through the AFL finals race with six games left.Source: FOX SPORTS
PROJECTED FINALS BRACKET
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium
First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBD at Adelaide Oval
First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Geelong vs GWS Giants at the MCG
Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood at the MCG
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Melbourne vs TBD at the MCG
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG
The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Fremantle (19.35 projected wins)
2. Sydney Swans (17.4)
3. Hawthorn (16.05)
4. Brisbane Lions (15.2)
5. Adelaide Crows (14.65)
6. Melbourne (14.35)
7. Geelong (13.45)
8. Western Bulldogs (12.85)
9. Collingwood (11.95)
10. GWS Giants (11.5)
11. St Kilda (11.35)
12. Carlton (10.85)
13. North Melbourne (9.65)
14. Gold Coast Suns (9.6)
15. Port Adelaide (8.3)
16. West Coast Eagles (5.55)
17. Richmond (3)
18. Essendon (1.95)
“How does he kick this!?” | 00:17
Key Talking Points
– Fremantle is mathematically locked into the finals. Heck, they’re almost mathematically locked into the top six. Now sitting two games clear of Sydney (the percentage gap looks big, but would disappear if they lost twice) they look near-certainties to be minor premiers and would need to completely collapse to miss a home qualifying final;
– Sydney remains another two games clear of third, and as long as they win at least one of their next two games, should finish second;
– Hard to see the Cats making the top four from here unless everything goes right, so it’s a four team race with two solid favourites. Hawthorn and Brisbane have easier remaining draws than Adelaide and Melbourne, with the Crows still to play Sydney and Freo away, while the Demons host Geelong and Freo;
– None of Geelong’s recent losses, individually, are particularly bad. But collectively they are terrible. There’s still a world where the Cats win their last six games and sneak into the top four (they’re arguably favoured in all six, though Dees-Cats at the MCG is 50-50 at best), but more realistically, they cannot be trusted… and more importantly the gap to both Hawthorn and Brisbane is just too big. They’re getting a home elimination final at best, almost certainly by beating and then passing Melbourne, and copping a scary wildcard game at worst. (Their last three games are against the Bombers, Roos and Tigers. They’re not missing the finals.)
– With disaster avoided against the Eagles, the Bulldogs just need to keep getting the job done against lesser sides. With the Tigers and Kangaroos left, that should be the 12 wins they’ll require;
– The comeback over the Kangaroos was vital for Collingwood, given their remaining draw. If they beat the Blues next week, combined with West Coast away in a few weeks’ time, that could be just enough for a wildcard (and an upset over one of the four contenders they play wouldn’t go astray). The problem is that’s only 11 and a half wins, and the Giants and Saints now have reasonable paths to reach 12…
– GWS’ season has been ridiculous, with five wins over the top half of the ladder, and three wins over the bottom half. They’re gonna be scary if they make the wildcard and they’re now on track for it, with four very winnable games (Bombers, Power, Suns, Eagles) that’d get them to the magic number of 12. If they hadn’t lost to St Kilda twice they’d be in a much better spot, but those victories will serve the Saints well. They also have a solid path to 12 wins (if they beat the Roos, Blues, Tigers and Suns) and combined with the Giants, that’s keeping the Pies at risk.
– Also keeping the Pies at risk? Next week’s huge clash with Carlton! The Blues dropped down the order a little bit after the loss to Hawthorn, yet still have a reasonable path to 12 wins if they beat the Magpies, plus the Suns, Saints and Bulldogs. But as you would expect from a team that’s trying to play finals after starting 1-8, they don’t have much margin for error.
– North Melbourne was brave against the Pies but the wildcard dream is basically over, while Gold Coast feels a lot like Geelong; their losses can kinda be explained individually, but they’re about to finish way, way lower on the ladder than they should.
GWS stun Cats to continue hot streak | 01:45
Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. All times AEST.
Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.
1. FREMANTLE (15-2, 142.3%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 20: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest
After the second-least accurate half in footy history, West Coast came back and won. After the equal-third-least accurate half in footy history, Fremantle came back and won. What does this mean? Absolutely nothing, but it’s kinda weird hey? The Dockers will finish on top of the ladder but they should try kicking straighter in the first half in September; it’ll make things a whole lot less stressful.
Fox Footy’s projection: 19.35 wins, finishing 1st
Longmuir proud of Dockers’ response | 06:44
2. SYDNEY SWANS (13-4, 131.2%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Adelaide Crows at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 20: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm
Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm
Round 22: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest
The Swans would’ve been very disappointed with the way they melted down late against the Dockers, though that first half was a great sign for September. They’ll likely still host a qualifying final but the door could sneak open for Hawthorn or Brisbane if they find the next two weeks difficult. If Sydney gets through the Crows and Giants unscathed, we can’t see them falling out of second place (especially since the Hawks and Lions have to play each other), and even if they go 1-1 they will likely be OK.
Fox Footy’s projection: 17.4 wins, finishing 2nd
Cox left frustrated after Freo loss | 10:10
3. HAWTHORN (11-5-1, 114.2%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 20: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 21: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm
Round 22: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm
Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest
The ladder makes things look a bit tighter for the Hawks than they really are. With four games left against four of the worst teams in the league, plus a clash with Collingwood they’ll go into as favourites, Sam Mitchell’s men have a strong grip on a top-four finish. Should they win those five games, they will earn the double chance unless two of Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne finish on a 6-0 run… the Lions could certainly do it, but the Crows and Demons each have two very tough games left. At the very least, the Hawks should win their next three and build an even bigger lead over the chasing pack.
Fox Footy’s projection: 16.05 wins, finishing 3rd
Hawks snap Blues winning streak | 02:57
4. BRISBANE LIONS (11-6, 117.1%)
Remaining games
Round 19: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm
Round 20: Port Adelaide at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 22: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm
Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, details TBC
Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest
You know you’re going well when the AFLxScore account calls the result of your game during the first quarter. (That’s like Antony Green calling the election as polls close… which probably could’ve happened at the last WA ballot, actually.) Pumping the Bombers actually mattered, too – we expect the Lions will finish ahead of the Crows and Demons, and make the top four, because their draw is easier; but if percentage comes into play they’re also well-placed. That Round 22 clash with Hawthorn remains likely to decide who finishes third, which is especially important now with Fremantle very likely to finish first. Second is probably out of reach so the Lions’ cleanest path to a fourth straight Grand Final would be finishing third, beating Sydney in the qualifying final, and then winning a home prelim over someone like Hawthorn or Adelaide.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.2 wins, finishing 4th
Another umpiring HOWLER | 01:07
5. ADELAIDE CROWS (11-6, 116.9%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Sydney at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 20: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 21: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 22: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: GWS at Adelaide Oval, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest
The Cats’ slide has given the Crows some much-needed breathing room in the top-six race, and keep in mind Geelong and Melbourne still have to play each other. That’s another loss for one of the sides below them. Adelaide will still need to get the job done in some tricky home games against Collingwood and GWS, but combined with the Essendon And Richmond VFL Fortnight Experience, those four wins should be enough to avoid the wildcard. It could also be enough for fourth in a pinch (perhaps on percentage), but they’ll probably need to beat Sydney and/or Fremantle too.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.65 wins, finishing 5th
Nicks: “As good as we’ve been!” | 06:54
6. MELBOURNE (11-6, 109%)
Remaining games
Round 19: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 20: Geelong at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 21: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 22: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC
Round 24: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest
They would’ve watched GWS’ comeback win over the Cats with glee – suddenly the Demons are two wins clear inside the top six with just six games left! The game against Geelong in a fortnight’s time should decide who makes it; if the Dees win, it’s hard to see them falling back into the wildcard places, as we’d have them favoured in four of their other five games. (And they did beat Freo at the MCG last year, so that’s not an automatic loss.) If they lose to the Cats and Dockers though, that makes the battle for seventh between them and Geelong dead-even, given how many very easy games Chris Scott’s side has left.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.35 wins, finishing 6th
Butters injured in ‘sickening’ incident | 00:27
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-7, 92.3%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 20: Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest
West Coast at home was one of the wins the Bulldogs simply had to have, and they got it done. Throw in the likely win over Richmond in a couple of weeks’ time, and the Dogs would just need to pinch one of their other five remaining games to play finals. The realistic best-case scenario would be around 13 or 14 wins, which probably still isn’t enough for the top six due to their percentage, but it’d at least secure them a ‘home’ final (likely at the MCG against an MCG tenant… that’s the Marvel tax, baby).
Fox Footy’s projection: 12.85 wins, finishing 8th
Beveridge proud of Dogs tough victory | 06:38
8. COLLINGWOOD (9-7-1, 104.4%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Carlton at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 20: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 21: Geelong at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 22: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm
Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: Brisbane at the MCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest
Craig McRae doesn’t want to put a ceiling on the Magpies by saying they’re just fighting for a wildcard but, let’s be real, they are. There’s an unlikely scenario where they upset two or three of the contenders left on this fixture, and finish on 13 or 14 wins… even that might not be enough for a top six finish. (14 and a half should be enough but it’s no certainty, depending on who they lose to.) Realistically the Pies are just trying to make the finals at all, because at no point this year have they looked good enough to contend. They’re building enough of a ladder lead to make up for their very tricky last five games (well, four are tricky) having now recorded four straight wins over the Power, Tigers, Suns and Kangaroos. There are two more clearly winnable games on this fixture, against the Blues and the Eagles. That’s a very clear path to 11 and a half wins. That’ll be enough… if two of the Saints, Giants and Blues fail to reach 12 wins, which is no sure thing! So if the Pies can add an upset over one of the Crows, Cats, Hawks or Lions, they’ll definitely make it. Their looming wildcard final is probably gonna be at the MCG anyway, unless Adelaide falls off a cliff and finishes 7th.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.95 wins, finishing 9th
AFL technology “NOT UP TO IT!” | 09:01
9. GEELONG (9-8, 115.2%)
Remaining games
Round 19: St Kilda at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm
Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest
The Cats seem to have forgotten that it doesn’t matter if you’ve got an easy run home if, by the time you reach the easy part, you’ve fallen too far down the ladder. They will definitely still make the top 10 – look at that last three weeks – so they’re getting to 12 wins and with a strong percentage. The problem is now avoiding the wildcard round. They have to catch someone, probably Melbourne given they play them in a fortnight’s time, though passing the Dees will still rely on Steven King’s men dropping one extra game (likely against Fremantle). And the Cats will have to start, you know, actually winning games too. And this is just to sneak back into sixth! Their season has basically fallen apart, little by little; you’d hate to draw them in the finals because their best footy is still at the level of a flag contender, but they’d have to play so much of it to reach a Grand Final from here.
Fox Footy’s projection: 13.45 wins, finishing 7th
Scott gives Cameron update after loss | 07:12
10. ST KILDA (8-9, 106.1%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 20: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 21: Sydney at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm
Round 22: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm
Round 23: Richmond at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest
They avoided the teal banana peel, and are back inside the top 10 for the first time in a month. They would’ve preferred GWS not beaten Geelong, because now they’ve got to hold off the orange team too, but the Saints have a very solid path to 12 wins – which with their percentage, almost certainly gets them into the finals. The Cats and Swans are beatable but realistically, we’re talking about a scenario where the Saints beat the Roos, Blues, Tigers and Suns. The hardest part of that scenario would be the pressure that comes with needing to win their last three games to make it, but not having to travel helps.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.35 wins, finishing 11th
Saints OUT of Lachie Neale race | 06:59
11. GWS GIANTS (8-9, 101.6%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 20: Sydney at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm
Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm
Round 22: Gold Coast at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 23: West Coast at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest
Having now beaten five of the best teams in the comp, yet still sitting outside the top 10, the Giants are very hard to get a read on other than ‘they will be scary if you play them in September’. Thanks to a fifth consecutive win over the Cats, we now have the orange team not only projected to play finals, but projected to play Geelong again. It’s a race to 12 wins and, assuming the Giants can play up to the level we’ve seen them produce against Geelong, Fremantle and Brisbane recently, they should get there – we have them favoured over the Bombers, Power, Suns and Eagles. Throw in the Sydney Derby as an always-unpredictable fixture and it all sounds pretty good for them right now. But even more unpredictable than that game is GWS’ overall form, so we also wouldn’t be shocked if they missed out completely. Percentage could definitely matter here.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.5 wins, finishing 10th
Kingsley ‘proud’ of brave Giants | 07:08
12. CARLTON (8-9, 91.9%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 20: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm
Round 21: Brisbane at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm
Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest
For the Blues, worse than losing to Hawthorn was watching GWS upset Geelong, because now it’s clearly a four-team race for the last two wildcard spots – with the Magpies, Saints and Giants all ahead of Carlton on our numbers. It’s very tight though, and while the machinations will probably get more complicated than this, if Carlton goes on and beats both Collingwood and St Kilda, we would have them favoured to play finals. They’d still need to beat the Suns and Bulldogs too, and thanks to their percentage there’s some chance the Blues get squeezed out even with 12 wins – but that’d be unlikely in this scenario where they’re beating the Pies and Saints (because those teams would be much less likely to reach 12 too). So let’s keep it simple: win those four, play finals. Drop one, probably don’t.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.85 wins, finishing 12th
Blues meet Enright over coaching role | 00:28
13. NORTH MELBOURNE (8-9, 91.4%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 21: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm
Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Sydney at the SCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest
They were painfully close to beating the Pies, but now it’s going to be very hard for the Kangaroos to play finals, having dropped two of their most winnable remaining games. Due to their percentage, they’ll need four wins from their last six to have any real chance of making the wildcard… and we can see maybe two more wins on this draw, three at most. Getting to 10 wins would still be a huge achievement given how long they’ve been down the bottom.
Fox Footy’s projection: 9.65 wins, finishing 13th
Clarko rues missed chances in close loss | 11:08
14. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-10, 95.6%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Western Bulldogs at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 20: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm
Round 21: Melbourne at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 22: GWS at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 23: Brisbane at the Gabba, details TBC
Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest
Damien Hardwick said after Saturday night’s loss “this year is effectively gone”. He’s clearly not a Run Home reader! (Or he’s seen how bad they’re going behind the scenes and knows they’re no chance of turning the ship around…) We think the Suns are still in the hunt, if only just. Adelaide in Adelaide was always gonna be hard (and even eight weeks ago we would’ve had them as underdogs); this wasn’t the game they HAD to win, though it would’ve helped. They can still save their season if they can cure what’s ailing them – Dogs and Dees at home, plus Blues, Giants and Saints away are all winnable if they can rediscover their early-season form. Heck, even the Pineapple Grapple can throw up some weird results, like their 11-goal win late last year. It’s much more likely Dimma is right, though, and the fact they could finish in the bottom four is pretty staggering.
Fox Footy’s projection: 9.6 wins, finishing 14th
“Get out of the basement mate!” | 05:28
OUT OF CONTENTION
15. PORT ADELAIDE (6-11, 101.3%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 20: Brisbane at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 21: GWS at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm
Round 22: Sydney at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 23: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, details TBC
Round 24: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 8.3 wins, finishing 15th
16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-13, 72%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Brisbane at Optus Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 21: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 22: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm
Round 23: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 5.55 wins, finishing 16th
17. RICHMOND (2-15, 63%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 20: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 21: West Coast at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 23: St Kilda at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 3 wins, finishing 17th
18. ESSENDON (1-16, 66.6%)
Remaining games
Round 19: GWS at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 20: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 21: Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 22: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm
Round 23: Sydney at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 1.95 wins, finishing 18th
Technically the Power could still make it by winning every remaining game, but they weren’t doing that with a healthy Zak Butters, and they certainly won’t do it without him. A sad probably-an-ending to his career in teal though it does ensure they won’t accidentally play their way out of a better draft pick. No changes of note for the bottom three, though we now have the Eagles favoured against the Tigers in a few weeks’ time after a strong road trip performance.