MLB Home Run Derby Betting Preview: Favorites, Values and Fades

The MLB Home Run Derby remains one of baseball’s most unpredictable and compelling events. There are no minnows in this eight-player pond with Kyle Schwarber heading in as the clear-cut favorite on Monday night at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Here’s a complete breakdown of the betting landscape heading into the event.

It’s finally here 🙌

The T‑Mobile Home Run Derby is LIVE TONIGHT on Netflix at 8PM ET | 5PM PT. Special coverage begins at 7PM ET | 4PM PT. pic.twitter.com/teEq0Gu1qr

— Netflix (@netflix) July 13, 2026

Latest FanDuel Odds

Kyle Schwarber +340

Munetaka Murakami +470

Junior Caminero +480

Jordan Walker +600

Jac Caglianone +650

Bryce Harper +850

Ben Rice +900

Willson Contreras +1100

The Favorites

Kyle Schwarber +340

Munetaka Murakami +470

Junior Caminero +480

Schwarber has an opportunity in his home ballpark to leave a lasting imprint on his résumé as one of the most productive power hitters of his generation. He leads the majors in first-half home runs and has long demonstrated a knack for rising to the moment, most memorably homering on three consecutive swings during the first swing-off in All-Star Game history last summer. Schwarber is no stranger to this stage, having reached the finals of the 2018 Home Run Derby at Nationals Park before falling to future Phillies teammate Bryce Harper. He’s facing some extremely tough competition, but Schwarber still enters this year’s contest as the clear favorite.

There are impressive major-league debuts, and then there’s what Murakami did earlier this season, launching 20 home runs in just 57 games before a hamstring strain sent him to the injured list in late May. The 26-year-old spent the early portion of his career rewriting Japan’s record books and now has a chance to introduce himself on a much larger stage with a left-handed swing that is tailor-made for Citizens Bank Park. The injury is impossible to ignore, but it may not be entirely detrimental. If anything, the extra time off could leave him with fresher legs than the rest of the field. He’s seen his odds shorten considerably over the past few days, emerging as the surprising second choice behind Schwarber.

Caminero finished as the runner-up to Cal Raleigh at last year’s event at Truist Park in Atlanta, falling 18–15 in a tightly contested final. The 23-year-old rising superstar, enters this year’s competition on the heels of an impressive first half where he blasted 28 home runs, building on last season’s 45-homer breakout. He’s made it abundantly clear that he’s highly motivated to win this time around. It’ll be a daunting task for a right-handed hitter to emerge victories in this ballpark, but he’s the type of special hitter that could make it happen. His 79.9 mph bat speed is the highest of any hitter in the field and should help him maximize each swing. A victory would make Caminero the youngest champion since Juan Gonzalez, who took home the crown at 23 years old back in 1993.

Best Values

Jac Caglianone +650

Ben Rice +900

If you’re looking for a dark horse candidate outside of the consensus top options, Caglianone and Rice check a lot of boxes. The pair of young, left-handed sluggers have swings perfectly suited to exploit Citizens Bank Park’s favorable dimensions in right field.

Caglianone has been putting on light-tower power displays since being drafted and leads this year’s Derby field with an average home run distance of 414 feet this season.

Meanwhile, Rice finished a remarkable first half with 29 home runs and his 9.7 percent barrels-per-plate appearance rate is tied with Schwarber and Murakami for the highest in this year’s field. He doesn’t hit a ton of tape-measure homers, but neither did last year’s winner in Cal Raleigh. He would be the first Yankee to win the event since Aaron Judge’s legendary performance back in 2017. Rice feels like the best pure value on the board heading into the event.

Fades

Jordan Walker +600

Walker finally delivered the long-awaited breakout campaign his former top-prospect pedigree promised earlier in his career. The harsh reality is that it’s incredibly difficult for a right-handed hitter to outslug an elite group of left-handed bats in this setting. According to Baseball Savant’s three-year park factors, Citizens Bank Park ranks as the most favorable home run environment for left-handed hitters, but just 18th for right-handers. This isn’t an indictment of Walker, but an acknowledgement that he’s facing an uphill climb if he’s going to outperform the likes of Schwarber, Murakami, Harper, Caglianone and Rice in this event.

The X-Factor

Bryce Harper +850

He’s largely lived up to the stratospheric hype that has followed him since he was labeled a generational talent as a teenager. This represents another opportunity to deliver a memorable moment in front of his hometown fans, which is a significant part of the reason he chose to participate this time around. He may be downplaying his motivations, but it’s difficult to imagine him not finding another gear once the lights come on. Do you really want to doubt a future Hall of Famer in his own building?