There are two clear contenders for the AFL Coach of the Year, but a man inside the bottom four should join them on the podium.
Plus the undersold Magpie keeping them ticking, the latest on Tasmania’s trade targets and much more as the big issues from Round 19 are analysed in Foxfooty.com.au’sTalking Points!
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See the AFL Talking Points out of Round 19.Source: FOX SPORTS
THE SIX-WIN COACH WHO’S ONE OF 2026’S BEST
A Coach of the Year award, in any sport, rarely goes to the best coach. Instead it’s about expectations.
Geelong coach Chris Scott is widely regarded as one of the coaches in the AFL, if not the best. But he has never won the AFL Coaches Association’s top gong – primarily because the Cats are always expected to be good.
For example, you’d think Scott would’ve been Coach of the Year in 2022, when the Cats won 16 straight games on route to the premiership – including the preliminary and grand finals by a combined 152 points.
But instead, Craig McRae was voted by his peers as the year’s best coach after guiding the Magpies from the bottom two to a prelim. He overachieved by the most. (The award was determined pre-Grand Final.)
In the 18-team era, more coaches have won the award while finishing in the bottom half of the eight than by actually winning the flag or finishing on top of the ladder. Wins don’t matter – wins above expectation matter.
AFLCA Coach of the Year winner
2024 and 2025 – Chris Fagan (Brisbane Lions)*
2023 – Adam Kingsley (GWS Giants)
2022 – Craig McRae (Collingwood)
2021 – Simon Goodwin (Melbourne)*^
2020 – Ken Hinkley (Port Adelaide)^
2019 – Chris Fagan (Brisbane Lions)
2018 – Nathan Buckley (Collingwood)
2017 – Damien Hardwick (Richmond)*
2015 and 2016* – Luke Beveridge (Western Bulldogs)
2014 – John Longmire (Sydney Swans)^
2013 – Ken Hinkley (Port Adelaide)
2012 – John Longmire (Sydney Swans)*
2011 – John Worsfold (West Coast Eagles)
* = premiers
^ = minor premiers
Hinkley to coach Tasmania Devils | 05:39
There are two leading contenders in 2026:
– Fremantle’s Justin Longmuir, who has finally unlocked his list’s potential and has the men in purple as premiership favourites. He would be a Fagan, Goodwin or Hinkley-type winner;
– Melbourne’s Steven King, who has turned a bottom-six side that lost two superstar midfielders into a dark horse top-four threat. He would be a Kingsley, McRae or Buckley-type winner.
It’d be a shock if anyone else beat Longmuir or King to the crown, but the race for third place is a bit trickier.
Maybe it’s Dean Cox, with his Swans sitting second? But they’ve been quite disappointing against fellow contenders. Maybe Luke Beveridge, for keeping his Bulldogs in the finals race despite a horror run of injuries?
We think the third-best coach in the AFL this year currently sits in the bottom four. And while West Coast’s Andrew McQualter has done an admirable job getting the Eagles going again, we’re not talking about him.
While Port Adelaide may end up going backwards from Ken Hinkley’s final season, when they finished 13th with a record of 9-14, the growth in the Power’s percentage shows just how much better they are in Josh Carr’s first full year in charge.
The Power have a percentage of 99.3 – almost a full 20 points ahead of last year’s 79.8 – showing just how competitive they’ve been in 2026.
Any expert worth their salt knows percentage is a better indicator than the win-loss record, and if you’re saying Carr has done a bad job because they’ve only won six games, you’re simply exposing yourself.
HORROR MISS! Cox’s point blank blunder | 00:26
The Power have lost a ridiculous five games by three points or less; with some better luck, they would be in the wildcard race right now. But they also have rarely played a bad game.
Their worst performances were very early in the year – going down to North Melbourne by 46 points back in Round 1, then losing to West Coast at home in Round 3. Since then they’ve been in basically every game, except the surprising loss at home to Carlton in Round 11, which came off a tiring defeat in Darwin.
They’ve beaten Geelong and Adelaide – giving them a better resume than St Kilda or Carlton – while they’ve narrowly lost to Sydney, Hawthorn, the Bulldogs and Adelaide (in one of the greatest Showdown endings ever).
Just look at this past Saturday, where the Power led flag favourites Fremantle at halftime despite one of the weakest midfields any team has sent out all season – Ollie Wines (who is well past his best), Willem Drew (a solid defensive midfielder but not a star) and Joe Richards (a small forward).
The Power have been outstanding defensively, heading into Round 9 sitting third for points against, first for limiting defensive 50 to inside 50 transitions and third for preventing scores from intercepts. And they’ve done it with limited personnel, including Connor Rozee missing most of the year, Miles Bergman playing about half the season, and Zak Butters going down recently.
And keep in mind that being impressive without actually winning is kinda the ideal result for Port Adelaide right now, given they want high-end draft picks to replenish the list and ensure they can match early bids across the 2026 and 2027 drafts – beginning with this year’s top prospect Dougie Cochrane.
“He’s done an outstanding job,” Carr’s old boss and future Tasmania coach Ken Hinkley said on SEN last week.
“The succession plan doesn’t look too bad now, does it?”
Dogs cash in on Trac’s nightmare blunder | 00:37
UNLIKELY HERO’S ‘UNBELIEVABLE’ RUN IN PIES ‘LICORICE-ALL-SORTS’ FORWARD LINE
The emergence of some of Collingwood’s younger players has been a good story in its five-game winning streak.
At the other end of the spectrum, a veteran is in some of the best form of his career … despite not having a contract for 2027.
Tim Membrey has been instrumental for Collingwood over its winning run in a strong stretch from the 32-year old and his best in black and white stripes.
Membrey has booted 14 goals from the last five games — including the match winner against North Melbourne — to take his season tally to 25
He’s formed a good tandem with Dan McStay; they’ve combined for 56 majors this season as Collingwood’s two leading goalkickers.
McKay’s night is over after knee injury | 00:24
It’s been crucial for a Collingwood’s “licorice-all-sorts” forward line, as put by Craig McRae, that earlier this season struggled to put winning scores on the board.
And has been missing the likes of Jamie Elliott, Bobby Hill and Lachie Schultz in addition to Brody Mihocek’s departure.
Membrey has done his part, with the ex-Saint on track for his best goalkicking season since 2019, while he currently ranks top 10 in the AFL in marks inside 50 per game in 2026.
It wasn’t inconceivable to think Collingwood could’ve moved past him this year.
Instead, Membrey has been an unlikely hero for a Magpies side that’s still clearly crying out for a star key forward.
It comes after the sharpshooter kicked 32 goals last season in his first in black and white as a solid addition to McRae’s side.
And with Max King sidelined the last two seasons, fair to say the Saints sure could’ve used a reliable option in attack like Membrey.
Magpies make it five straight wins | 02:58
Yet Membrey still remains unsigned beyond this year along with fellow Pies veterans Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe.
There’s been plenty of chatter around the future of those Collingwood champs, and rightfully so, given their status.
However, Membrey arguably has the strongest claim of the lot to earn a new deal, given his recent form and with how Collingwood needs his firepower in attack.
Josh Daicos is sure enjoying Membrey’s work and hopes to see him earn a contract extension.
“Love playing with him. He’s in some sort of form right now in this little purple patch,” Daicos told Fox Footy after Collingwood’s win over Carlton.
“He doesn’t miss, he kicked the big goal last week. And a lot of times we’re not kicking it to his advantage, but he’ll bring it to ground and competes when he’s outnumbered.
“I really want him to get another year, because he deserves it. He’s playing unbelievable football right now.”
“Rules for some, rules for others” | 00:36
SAINTS URGED TO STAMP OUT ‘SELFISH’ HABITS BEFORE STAR’S LONG-AWAITED RETURN
St Kilda has been urged to ditch its “selfish” habits in attack before the long-awaited return of spearhead Max King, with three-time Richmond premiership player Jack Riewoldt warning the club can’t simply expect the former No. 4 draft pick to ride to the rescue after almost two years sidelined from the top level.
The Saints’ forward connection again came under the microscope during last Thursday night’s 27-point loss to Geelong, with two-time All-Australian David King questioning a group too willing to take low-percentage shots rather than bring teammates into the game.
“I think they do have to address that they’re all prepared to have a shot. It can be considered a selfish forward line at St Kilda,” King told Fox Footy during the final quarter.
“They’ll take the shot from anywhere, and there’s times where that ball just has to go 15 (metres) from goal in the corridor, and you give your key playmakers a secondary look.
“It’s got to be addressed. The goal assist is as good as a goal.”
Riewoldt added: “I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. They’re a group, especially forward of the ball, that place value in kicking goals rather than setting them up.”
King, who Saints coach Ross Lyon confirmed post-match will return against Melbourne on Sunday, has endured a horror run with injury that has left St Kilda’s forward line searching for a focal point in his absence.
A two-time leading goalkicker at the club in 2021 and 2022, the 26-year-old’s absence has thrust Cooper Sharman and Anthony Caminiti into greater responsibility as key forwards, while ruck duo Tom De Koning and Rowan Marshall have also spent extended periods inside 50.
Anthony Caminiti (left) and Max King (right) compete for a mark during a St Kilda training at RSEA Park on April 30, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
In David King’s eyes, however, the spearhead could prove the missing piece as the Saints chase an unlikely wildcard berth.
“The pieces are all there individually; they’ve just got to come together collectively. I don’t think it’s that far away,” King said.
“Max King makes a big difference in the forward half, and you filter down from there. They take key responsibilities, these big playmakers.
“At minimum, he changes every match-up — he takes the best defender. Then everyone else gets the domino effect of that for (Cooper) Sharman, who has really been unsighted tonight.
“I reckon they’re good enough. They just don’t have the courage to put it all out there against the best, and risk being hammered to win the game.
“You’ve got to play with aggression and demand the footy when it’s your time. The stars need to stand up … I just don’t think they really release against the good sides and play their best.”
De Koning has also missed the Saints’ past two matches through injury, while senior pair Jack Sinclair and Sam Flanders have been ruled out for the remainder of the season in a growing test of the club’s depth.
But, Riewoldt cautioned against placing unrealistic expectations on King after such a lengthy stint on the sidelines.
“There’s a lot of expectation they’ve put on Max King. He hasn’t played for two years; we don’t know what sort of player he’s going to be,” Riewoldt said.
“It’s a long time to not play AFL footy, and then the expectation will be that he comes in and changes this club. He can’t change the attitude of the backline or midfield, but will obviously change the forward line.
“It’s going to be fascinating what sort of Max King we get after a huge hiatus from AFL footy.”
‘Look out, there’s a step!’ | 00:23
‘WON’T WANT ME SAYING THIS…’: PARTING CEO’S TASSIE CLIP AS QUESTION GROW OVER STAR GIANTS DUO
Former GWS chief executive Dave Matthews believes Tasmania’s enormous financial war chest means the AFL’s incoming 19th club will inevitably circle players such as Giants co-captain Tom Green — but that they’ll need to pay overs due to their location.
Speaking to 3AW on Saturday, Matthews declared Tasmania “looms large” in the race for the 25-year-old, who has regularly been linked to the expansion club ahead of its 2028 entry into the competition.
“I think Tasmania looms large, just because of the sheer offers that you hear they’re going to make,” Matthews said.
“To be honest, my view is they need to make those. I don’t think it’s a super attractive proposition to go and play at Tasmania. My own view is it’s a nice place to visit, (but) I don’t think it’s an unbelievable place to have a career and live.
“Some of the hold-ups in relation to the infrastructure… I know (Devils CEO) Brendon Gale probably wouldn’t want me saying this … but by the time they get a stadium in place, it’s probably three years into their tenure. By that stage, a player like Tom Green is probably 31 or 32.”
Kozzy cops a high boot | 00:22
The recently departed Giants figure also pointed to Green’s long-term ambitions as a reason he believes the star midfielder will resist the lure of Tasmania’s expected riches — which reportedly entails a seven-year deal around the $9 million mark.
“The money is one thing, but the opportunity again, if you listen closely to what Tom Green talks about: He wants to be a premiership player,” Matthews continued.
“And I also think at some point, I think you’ll see him captain the Giants.”
Those comments align closely with Green’s own thinking, having previously indicated that premiership success will ultimately shape the biggest contract decisions at the Giants.
Tom Green (facing) embraces Toby Greene after a Round 7 win over the Sydney Swans at the Sydney Cricket Ground, on April 29, 2023 (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
Speaking to SEN in May on the future of teammate and star captain Toby Greene, who has separately been strongly linked to Geelong, Green revealed his skipper was taking his time before deciding on his next move.
“I feel like this contract decision will be mainly based on where he feels he is best suited to winning a premiership,” Green said.
“Now, I still think that’s at the Giants … some things haven’t gone our way yet this year, but I don’t see why they wouldn’t going forward.
“I’d be really disappointed if he didn’t think that was at the Giants.
“I’m pretty close with Toby … having (had) a couple of conversations with him, I really don’t know exactly where his head’s at.”
‘SEVEN ROLES’: HUGE BLUES VOID COULD CRUEL SEASON… BUT FRASER STILL ‘IN THE MIX’
If there is to be a Harry McKay-sized void in Carlton’s season, it could well derail any remaining chance it has of making the top-10.
Despite scans revealing a minor meniscus tear and bone bruising in his knee after a collision with teammate Sam Walsh on Saturday night, it’s not even a certainty that McKay will miss against Gold Coast next week.
The Blues have labelled McKay a ‘test’ heading into their Round 20 fixture, with Carlton still sitting just percentage outside the finals picture after the Giants’ shock loss to Essendon on Sunday night.
Given the spearhead’s importance not only as a focal point but from a structural perspective, triple Richmond premiership star Jack Riewoldt believes he’s almost the club’s number-one “puzzle piece”.
“Clearly they missed him tonight. In terms of pieces to the puzzle for Carlton, and a man that’s played well under Josh Fraser, he’s nearly number one,” Riewoldt said on Fox Footy’s Super Saturday Live.
“They had to makeshift a second ruck – they used Blake Acres in there, they used Brodie Kemp in there, and they had to makeshift a forward line.
“And too many times tonight, they bombed it forward to where Harry should have been, and unfortunately, he wasn’t, and Collingwood was able to repel and offend from that point in the game.
“That’ll be a big watch.”
“Slow to get our game going!” | 07:30
Collingwood took nine contested marks to Carlton’s one on Saturday night.
“And that guy’s role in the team is to be the contested marking beast in the forward line,” dual North Melbourne flag-winner David King said.
“When it has such an influence on the group, it changes probably six or seven roles in the team.
“So, it has a huge impact on this group, that was right in the game. It’s a significant talking point when he goes down.”
It leaves Brodie Kemp and Mitch McGovern as the resident key forwards, with Hudson O’Keeffe shaping as the McKay replacement as a second ruck who can go forward and hit the scoreboard.
Otherwise, Ashton Moir is a potential mid-sized solution. Either way, it’s not a convincing mix in terms of key attacking targets for the rest of the year.
But it still might not matter if McKay misses extended time, as they’re still projected to finish 12th in Foxfooty.com.au’s The Run Home.
Their percentage is poor, and the likes of Brisbane and Fremantle loom in their remaining fixture.
In the immediate post-match on Saturday, Riewoldt said of the Blues’ chances: “Obviously, injuries will be the big toll out of this for them, and you’d think that their finals contention is probably done for season 2026.”
Regardless, the discourse around Josh Fraser and his senior coach candidacy will continue, with Super Saturday Live’s Jay Clark “certain” he’ll soon sit down with the club’s higher-ups.
“It’s going to be a big talking point this week,” Clark said on Fox Footy on Saturday night.
“Look, I don’t think he’s clinched the job at this stage. But clearly, he’s in the mix. I think he’s shown enough to warrant the conversation.
“He’ll sit down with Chris Davies, Adam Simpson and Graham Wright – I’m certain of that.
“I think there’ll be a significant step in this process over the next seven-to-10 days. I think the shortlist will be whittled down to about five candidates.
“I think that’ll happen over the next fortnight. They’ll have a longer, more meaningful conversation with the people who have got down to the pointy end of this process.”
‘Finding answers when we needed them’ | 07:40
And despite the loss to Collingwood – marking back-to-back defeats after seven-straight wins – King was still buoyant about Fraser’s chance of landing the permanent gig.
“I thought that was a pretty good performance; I thought he coached really well,” he said.
“He had to handle the McKay situation all night, which is probably one of the really significant pieces that changes everything – manufacturing a second ruck, manufacturing a target, throwing Derksen forward at the end, throwing McGovern around.
“Then you lose Cerra, and it compounds the headaches in the box.
“I don’t think you can put a line through him. I think he’s been really impressive with what he’s done. I love listening to him speak.
“I think he’s giving a great presentation to what he can do with this group that was broken when he got them.
“We all forget about that, because he won seven in a row. He’s making a good case.”