A major claim from the Treasurer about the state of Australia’s economy and how it is affecting small businesses has caused a stir — with experts explaining what they think is really happening.
Jim Chalmers took to X several times over the past week to claim that more new Aussie businesses were created in June, after the budget, than in any other month on record.
“New numbers out this week show more new businesses were registered last month than in any other month since these records first began in 1999,” he said. “More businesses were created in the month after the budget than in any other month on record.
“There’ve been 30 times the businesses starting up than closing down each day on average under Labor, and insolvency rates are almost half what they were under the Howard Government.”
A spokesman for the Treasury told news.com.au Australia hasn’t just seen a record number of businesses created since the budget, we’ve seen a record number of businesses created in the past year and in the past four years.
“More than 1.3 million new businesses have been created since Labor came to office, that’s a record for any four-year period,” he said. “We’re delivering $3.8 billion in new business tax relief, making the instant asset write-off permanent, delivering a permanent two-year loss carry back for small companies, introducing loss refundability, expanding tax incentives for venture capital, ensuring 1.5 million sole traders benefit from our $250 tax offset and much more because we believe in small businesses and we’re backing them.”
‘Incredibly irresponsible’ Expert blasts claim
The figures have been slammed by veteran investor and Wilson Asset Management Chairman Geoff Wilson — a vocal critic of the new tax changes and the cousin of shadow federal treasurer Tim Wilson — who said the boom was entirely artificial.
Another finance expert — Jenny Wong, Tax Lead at CPA Australia — added that the widening gap between ASIC company registrations and GST registrations suggests the surge in new businesses could be heavily driven by tax restructuring rather than organic economic expansion.
Mr Wilson believed the figures actually showed a phantom trend created by taxpayers fleeing Labor’s new tax hikes.
Pointing to the Budget’s new 30 per cent minimum tax rate on discretionary trust distributions, Mr Wilson claimed Australians were rushing to incorporate company structures simply to access the lower 25 per cent corporate tax rate available to entities turning over under $50 million.
“The treasurer is trying to gaslight the public again by saying the increase in company registrations is to do with an improving economy or more businesses being founded,” Mr Wilson said.
“That is 100 per cent incorrect. It’s people moving from trust structures, which will now be taxed at 30 per cent, to company structures, which — unless you have turnover over $50 million — are only taxed at 25 per cent.”
He said the trend was purely a tax minimisation strategy, and that a second reason behind the spike may be everyday Aussies putting their shares into company or trust structures to avoid increased capital gains taxes.
Recent research shows investors who bought the 20 most popular stocks six years ago would pay nearly double the amount of tax under Labor’s changes to capital gains tax.
Experts say the changes will unfairly disadvantage investors with diversified portfolios of directly owned shares over pooled investment vehicles like ETFs, which net gains and losses internally.
Mr Wilson said 7.7 million Aussies bought shares and many of them were restructuring their finances in response to the budget.
“The tax asymmetry on a portfolio of shares would drive people to set up company structures to allow them to offset the real losses against real gains,” he said. “If you had it in a pooled structure like a trust or a company, you offset the real loss against the real gain.
“It’s not to do with the health of the economy — the economy is getting sicker. It’s a reflection of the cost that Aussies have to bear because of the insane capital gains tax that is being imposed.
“The increase in tax — by the increased capital gains tax on Australian businesses — means fewer people are investing in Australian businesses. Small companies listed on the ASX are significantly underperforming.
“Money is going away from growth companies, and ‘growth’ has now become a dirty word because of the new tax on success or aspiration that has been legislated by the current government.”
Mr Wilson pointed to ASIC’s annual insolvency data that showed business failures had tripled.
The data shows corporate failures reached a historic peak of 14,722 in the 2024–25 financial year as the Tax Office resumed aggressive debt collection.
That’s a near-tripling from the post-pandemic low of 4912 in 2021–22 — when government support and temporary statutory relief kept insolvencies artificially low — and sits roughly 79 per cent above Australia’s long-term pre-Covid average of around 8200 company collapses per year.
“The sharp increase in company registrations is evidence that Australia’s tax system is changing business and investment behaviour,” Mr Wilson said. “Rather than directing more capital into productive businesses, the legislation directs more effort into choosing the most tax-efficient legal structure.”
‘Don’t act too early’: Tax expert’s warning
Ms Wong said that while a surge in company creations aligns with expected behavioural shifts following the Budget’s trust tax overhaul, the true test of trading activity lies in GST data.
“The GST registrations reflect the amount of active businesses,” Ms Wong said. “If the gap between ASIC company registrations and GST numbers widens, then that points towards structural change as a result of Budget measures rather than organic economic growth.”
According to Australian Business Register (ABR) tracking, that gap is widening significantly. While company incorporations surged by 12.55 per cent in June, new GST registrations grew by just 4.46 per cent — meaning new corporate entities are forming at nearly three times the pace of active trading businesses.
Ms Wong meanwhile has warned Aussies not to restructure their finances too quickly in response to the new budget measures — adding that business owners jumping the gun to restructure before final legislation is passed face severe financial risks.
“Most advisors would tell people: don’t act until you see the design of the legislation,” she said. “If people are restructuring without seeing the detail, there is a potential for states to levy transfer duty or stamp duty.”
‘We don’t want to be gaslit’
Businesses on the front lines say the headline figures touted by Dr Chalmers mask deep structural distress.
Belinda Raso, a registered tax agent and director at Tax Invest Accounting with over two decades of small business experience, described the Treasurer’s claim as completely detached from the daily reality of Australian business owners.
“Now, if you’re going to make a bold statement like this, be sure that you can actually handle the criticism because it’s coming your way,” she said. “As a small-business owner myself for the past 23 years, I did have to take a deep breath after reading this.”
Ms Raso pointed to recent industry reports showing that in New South Wales alone, an estimated 14 businesses were closing their doors every day due to crippling cash flow pressures.
“This is why small businesses are getting so frustrated — because they’re manipulating these figures to show that everything is going well,” she said. “I dare you to go out and ask a small-business owner how they’re travelling. I dare you to ask them how they’re going cash flow-wise, or where they think they will be in the next two to three years.”
She said business owners did not want to be “gaslit” about how the economy was going while they struggled and that they “deserve better”.