Of the big four banks, only Westpac expects a rate hike come August 11.

A shock spike has wiped out a guaranteed hold come the Reserve Bank’s next rate call in August – with a big bank already predicting a hike.

Three weeks out from the next RBA monetary policy board meeting, the market has begun pricing in protection against the risk of a surprise rate hike – admitting a 100 per cent probability of a hold is no longer on the cards.

MORE: $16k hidden fee nearly killed new home dream

Aus pub baron’s trashed island exposed

The ASX 30 day interbank cash rate futures August 2026 contract as at July 20. Source: ASX

The ASX Rate Tracker crossed the 20 per cent threshold Monday, after jumping 6 percentage points, with the ASX 30 day interbank cash rate futures August 2026 contract trading at 95.615 – indicating a 22 per cent expectation of an interest-rate increase to 4.6 per cent come August 11.

The jump is a surprise given it had been happily treading water at 16 per cent for over a week, and crucial data drops are yet to occur – including Thursday’s employment figures and next Wednesday’s inflation update.

Canstar.com.au group manager research Josh Sale said “the next three weeks will decide whether that fourth hike arrives”.

Development Continues Across Western Sydney

Homeowners have a tough six months ahead as the RBA balances inflation and employment uncertainty. Picture: Brook Mitchell/Getty Images

“Thursday’s labour force figures and next week’s June quarter inflation data are the final major inputs before the RBA’s August 11 decision, and the board has made it clear it will do whatever it takes to bring inflation down, including hiking again,” he said.

“Westpac still has an August hike pencilled in on the way to a forecast peak of 4.85 per cent. If it lands, a borrower with a $600,000 loan at the start of the year would be paying an extra $92 a month, taking the total added cost of 2026’s hikes to $364 a month.”

Other banks may not be vocal about their interest rate expectations but six providers cut term deposit rates this week by an average of 0.14 percentage points, with only Westpac and ANZ lifting two rates by an average of 0.08 percentage points.

Owner occupied P & I rate movement summary. Source: Canstar.com.au

Mr Sale said “banks trimming term deposit rates while the RBA is still open to further rate hikes, if needed, tells you where they think this cycle ends”.

“None of the majors expect rate cuts before 2027, but no bank wants to be locked into paying today’s rates on money it holds for years after the cash rate turns.”

He said “for households copping higher repayments, some of the quickest budget relief sits outside the mortgage entirely” now.

Canstar’s database shows a Sydney household on an average-priced electricity plan could save $374 a year by switching to the lowest plan, while the gap in Brisbane is $543 and in Adelaide $516.

“When every rate decision is out of your hands, the bills you can control matter more than ever,” he said.