The entirety of college football outside of the SEC derived much joy last season from watching the SEC land only three College Football Playoff berths and none of its teams reach the national championship.
This year, I predict, the SEC will come storming back.
The league’s offenses last year largely stank. No team averaged 30 points in conference games. Not coincidentally, many of the SEC’s highest-profile QBs in 2024 — Georgia’s Carson Beck, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, even Texas’ Quinn Ewers — regressed from the year before.
This year’s group should fare better. It’s a strong cast, led by Texas’ Arch Manning, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Florida’s DJ Lagway and Oklahoma’s John Mateer, all of whom rank in the top 10 of The Athletic’s preseason QB Tiers. Oh, and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia.
But a couple of the prime contenders will need a new guy to deliver. I’m betting on Alabama’s Ty Simpson. I’m selling Georgia’s Gunner Stockton.
SEC championship: Texas over Alabama
Thoughts on the top contenders
Texas: Manning is going to be good. How good? We’ll see. But the Longhorns, who won 13 games last season, should have a much more potent rushing attack with the tandem of Quintrevion Wisner and a healthy CJ Baxter. The front seven will be dominant. If Texas flops, it will be because a less-experienced offensive line took a significant step back.
Alabama: Kalen DeBoer’s 9-4 debut was a disaster, particularly on offense. But it’s a big deal that he’s reuniting with his former Washington offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb. Bama has a great receiving corps led by Ryan Williams, a huge offensive line and a defense teeming with vets like linebacker Deontae Lawson and defensive tackle Tim Keenan III. I’m all in on a Tide bounce-back.
LSU: Brian Kelly has the pieces. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards last season, and he has targets galore in Aaron Anderson, Kentucky transfer Barion Brown and breakout tight end Trey’Dez Green. And the defense could be significantly better with all the transfer upgrades, to go with returning stud linebackers Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins.
Texas A&M: This is my SEC sleeper team. The Aggies quietly fielded the league’s top scoring offense in conference play (29.4), and dynamic QB Marcel Reed figures to be more advanced. The backfield is deep, led by Le’Veon Moss. Yes, the defense has questions. But I like the Aggies to go on the road in Week 3 and upset Notre Dame.
Georgia: Although it won the SEC last year, Georgia did not meet the standard of Kirby Smart’s previous teams. The Dawgs should have a strong rushing attack with Nate Frazier and Josh McCray, but how will OC Mike Bobo best utilize Stockton? Even the defense has questions for once. I’ve got the Dawgs straddling the CFP bubble.
Thoughts on a few other notable teams
Oklahoma: It’s a make-or-break year for Brent Venables. With exciting ex-Washington State QB Mateer and his former OC, Ben Arbuckle, last year’s miserable offense should be light-years better. But I still don’t have full confidence in Venables, who has finished below .500 in two of his first three seasons. Would 8-4 be good enough to earn Year 5?
Florida: Billy Napier earned a reprieve after November upsets of LSU and Ole Miss propelled the Gators to an 8-5 finish. Lagway is bursting with talent. But those now mentioning Florida as a CFP candidate may be overreacting. All of the Gators’ best performances were at home. This year they visit LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
South Carolina: I feel bad bursting Gamecocks fans’ bubbles with a 6-6 pick. I realize excitement is through the roof thanks to Heisman contender Sellers. But it’s asking a lot of Shane Beamer to turn around and reload after losing defensive stalwarts like Bronko Nagurski winner Kyle Kennard, All-American safety Nick Emmanwori and All-SEC RB Raheim Sanders.
Thoughts on a few coaches in trouble
Hugh Freeze: I’m not sure Auburn can afford a third head-coach buyout in five years. I’m not sure it has a choice if Freeze finishes below .500 again. But he and ex-Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold should help salvage each other’s careers. Auburn was an explosive offense last season when it wasn’t giving away the ball (which was often).
Sam Pittman: Arkansas improved from 4-8 to 7-6 last season, but Pittman’s program still feels like it’s treading water. QB Taylen Green is decent but hardly spectacular, and the cast around him is ever-changing. And this year’s schedule is brutal: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, at LSU, at Texas, at Ole Miss. Even on the road in Memphis is tricky.
Mark Stoops: The winningest coach in UK history isn’t in trouble — yet. But he will be if this season goes as poorly as I’m predicting. The program has been struggling to keep up in the portal/NIL era, and Stoops has been struggling to find an offensive identity. But maybe journeyman QB Zach Calzada will make me look foolish for 3-9.
(Photos of Arch Manning, left, and Kalen DeBoer: Brett Davis / Imagn Images; Gary Cosby Jr. / Imagn Images)