On the day Barnaby Joyce announced his defection to One Nation last December, his former leader at the Nationals and longtime internal rival David Littleproud quickly assigned a motive for the former deputy PM’s switch.
“This issue is about Barnaby wanting to be the leader of a party,” Littleproud said, implying Joyce saw a better chance of succeeding Pauline Hanson than securing a third stint in charge of the Nationals.
The prospect of Hanson agreeing to an orderly handover of power to Joyce, as was rumoured at the time, always appeared uncertain given the ambitious and combustible personalities involved.
Eight months on, it might be even more unlikely – and not just because Hanson has hinted her daughter, Lee Hanson, is the preferred successor.
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Political insiders who speak regularly to Joyce say he is growing increasingly frustrated and uncomfortable as he’s forced to confront One Nation’s more extreme elements, including the conspiratorial views of Queensland senator Malcolm Roberts.
There are persistent rumours in Canberra that Joyce has a strained relationship with his only lower house colleague and Farrer MP, David Farley, who already appears to be distancing himself from the One Nation brand.
Remarkably, some Coalition MPs believe Joyce has not shut the door on a return to the Nationals now that one-time ally Matt Canavan has replaced Littleproud as leader – although he’s unlikely to be welcomed back.
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“He went to One Nation to lead the show. But it isn’t a democracy, it is an autocracy,” said one of Joyce’s former colleagues.
“I suspect he thought that he would be able to temper some of the more extreme views. It is not as easy as he thinks.”
‘Pauline and I are great mates’
Hanson and Joyce have publicly rejected suggestions of a rift after the Nine papers reported the One Nation leader’s “fact-finding” trip to the UK had exposed cracks in their relationship.
One rumoured source of disagreement was Hanson’s decision to record a podcast with the far-right UK activist Tommy Robinson, which Joyce was said to believe was unwise.
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The interview spawned headlines about Hanson lamenting the end of the White Australia policy, which prompted Hanson and Joyce to clarify the party wasn’t indeed advocating a return to the discriminatory regime.
“Pauline and I are great mates. We spoke yesterday, we spoke exactly about what people are trying to do, trying to divide us up,” Joyce said after those reports.
“We’re not dumb. We’ve both been around.”
Hanson and Joyce are due to headline a One Nation fundraiser next month in Dubbo, where seats on their respective tables have sold for $1,000 each, and are scheduled to appear at a gun owner event earlier in the day.
But the public displays of unity obscure an undercurrent of tension between Joyce and his colleagues, according to four associates of the New England MP who spoke to Guardian Australia on the condition of anonymity.
‘Malcolm Roberts has really pissed him off’
In a local radio interview announcing his defection to One Nation on 8 December, Joyce said he was “philosophically aligned” with the right-wing populist party.
The sources say Joyce understands, more so than his new colleagues, that One Nation needs to appeal to a broad cross-section of voters if it wants to translate support in opinion polls into seats in parliament.
It is for that reason he is said to have become frustrated as intensifying scrutiny from the media and political opponents has put the spotlight on One Nation’s dark and fringe elements.
Guardian Australia and other media outlets have in recent weeks reported extensively on the extreme views of Malcolm Roberts, including his praise of Vladimir Putin and Alex Jones – the conspiracy theorist who claimed the Sandy Hook elementary school massacre in the US was a hoax.
Roberts has openly promoted right-wing conspiracies for years but it is only now making headlines, and becoming politically dangerous for One Nation, because of Hanson’s surge in the polls.
Joyce has distanced himself from Roberts’ views during several television interviews in which he’s looked and sounded uncomfortable, including one where he was asked about the suggestion that mass Covid-19 deaths were “staged” to instil fear in the public.
“Malcolm Roberts has really pissed him off,” said one source close to Joyce, echoing a widely shared view among the New England MP’s associates.
In a Substack essay published on Wednesday, Roberts rejected the media reports as “targeted … erroneous and malicious” and denied his podcast comments amounted to an endorsement of the various conspiracy theories.
One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts speaks during question time in the Senate. Photograph: AAP
Roberts is intensely loyal to Hanson after the pair were elected together in 2016, which is said to shield him from internal repercussions.
The 71-year-old last year won another six years in the Senate but there is speculation he might step down early, potentially creating an opening for Hanson’s high-profile chief adviser, James Ashby, to enter parliament.
After years cleaning up after Joyce’s missteps, outbursts and scandals, Liberals and Nationals are revelling in the spectacle of him performing the “janitor” role at One Nation.
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Joyce, they joke, looks “sane” compared to his new colleagues.
“He doesn’t look comfortable at all,” said one Coalition source.
The sources say Joyce would “hate” that Hanson has spoken glowingly about her daughter Lee – who is an adviser to One Nation’s New South Wales senator Sean Bell despite living in Tasmania – as a future party leader.
Under One Nation’s constitution, Pauline Hanson gets to hand-pick her successor as president of the party, although it’s unclear if the same rule applies to the leader of the parliamentary team.
The leadership question will linger between now and the next election as both Joyce and Hanson weigh up whether to contest seats in the upper or lower house.
‘They don’t get along’
If Joyce seems out of step with One Nation on certain issues, his lower house colleague appears to be running a completely different race.
On 21 July, David Farley posted to social media about a meeting with parents regarding the potential closure of a tiny school outside Deniliquin in his southern New South Wales electorate. The post itself was unexceptional, the sort of content any politician uses to promote their grassroots engagement with constituents.
But it stands in stark contrast to the social media activity of his One Nation colleagues, whose accounts are vehicles for waging the party’s favoured culture wars.
Farley’s Facebook page uses mostly blue or green branding – rather than the distinctive orange of One Nation.
One Nation member for Farrer David Farley is escorted by Barnaby Joyce to be sworn-in in the House of Representatives. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
The branding choice has not gone unnoticed by his political opponents, who interpret it as part of a deliberate strategy to pre-position himself to eventually quit One Nation.
Farley has been viewed as potential flight risk since before he won the Farrer byelection, having previously tried to run for Labor and supported Climate 200-backed independent Michelle Milthorpe.
“He is not a raging far-right lunatic. Look at his social media – he’s divorcing himself from national issues,” said one MP.
Political and industry leaders who have dealt with Farley and Joyce in Canberra detect a fractious relationship between the two men.
One source said the animosity dates back more than a decade, when Farley regularly crossed paths with Joyce as a leader in the agriculture sector.
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“Farley hates Joyce. (He) Never rated him while he was a senior figure in the agriculture industry,” they said.
But Farley strongly rejected that characterisation.
“Pure rubbish and speculation,” he said via text message.
During his time leading the nation’s largest cattle enterprise, Australian Agricultural Company, Farley accused Joyce of spreading “xenophobic rhetoric” about foreign investment in comments that resurfaced during the Farrer byelection campaign.
The tension is visible in parliament, according to MPs who observe them in the chamber.
“Anyone who watches the body language between Farley and Joyce [in the chamber] can see that they don’t get along,” said an MP.
Guardian Australia approached Joyce for comment but was told he was overseas.
Asked about his relationship with Joyce, Farley said via text that he had known Joyce for 30 years but was unable to talk until after deadline.
One Nation’s six members have largely been apart during the federal parliament’s five-week winter break.
They will be re-united on 11 August – whether they like it or not.