Round 24 Run Home updates, live ladder and finals scenarios explained, impact of final round games on predicted top eight

The final round of the 2025 AFL season has arrived, with all nine remaining contenders unsure where they’ll finish on the ladder.

The finals-relevant games begin with a Friday night double-header, with Collingwood and Gold Coast each eyeing the top four, before the top two will be determined on Saturday.

Then comes a huge Sunday where it’s likely the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle will be playing off in an early elimination final – before the last two games of the round shape the rest of the eight.

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Scroll down to see the current state of play for the 2025 AFL finals and where all nine contenders can potentially finish based on results thus far, plus the live ladder.

All times AEST.

Collingwood and Gold Coast are playing for their top-four hopes on Friday night.Source: FOX SPORTS

CURRENT AFL LADDER (entering Round 24)

1. Adelaide Crows (17-5, 141%)

2. Geelong (16-6, 140.7%)

3. Brisbane Lions (15-6-1, 114.3%)

4. Collingwood (15-7, 123.1%)

5. Hawthorn (15-7, 122.7%)

6. GWS Giants (15-7, 115.5%)

7. Fremantle (15-7, 108.6%)

8. Western Bulldogs (14-8, 140.3%)

9. Gold Coast Suns (14-7, 121.2%)*

* = game in hand

Current percentage gaps (approximate)

Adelaide one goal ahead of Geelong

Collingwood one goal ahead of Hawthorn

Hawthorn four goals ahead of Gold Coast

PREDICTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Adelaide Crows vs Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Collingwood vs Hawthorn at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): GWS Giants vs Western Bulldogs at ENGIE Stadium

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Geelong vs Brisbane Lions at the MCG

PREDICTED FINAL LADDER

1. Adelaide Crows (18-5)

2. Geelong (17-6)

3. Brisbane Lions (16-6-1)

4. Gold Coast Suns (16-7)

5. Collingwood (16-7)

6. GWS Giants (16-7)

7. Western Bulldogs (15-8)

8. Hawthorn (15-8)

9. Fremantle (15-8)

10. Sydney Swans (12-11)

11. Carlton (9-14)

12. St Kilda (9-14)

13. Port Adelaide (8-15)

14. Melbourne (7-16)

15. Essendon (6-17)

16. North Melbourne (5-17-1)

17. Richmond (5-18)

18. West Coast Eagles (1-22)

Lynch & Brown’s Top 5 Marks of 2025 | 02:07

FIXTURE AND HOW ROUND 24 WILL PLAY OUT, CHRONOLOGICALLY

Thursday night: Essendon vs Carlton, 7:30pm at the MCG

This match has no impact on the finals race.

Friday night: Collingwood vs Melbourne, 7:10pm at the MCG

They’re fourth for now, with a bottom-nine opponent left to play, so clearly the Magpies can still make the top four. If they win tonight they’ve got a good shot at making it. But their biggest problem is the team in ninth – Gold Coast. The Suns have two very winnable games which will give them chances to gain percentage, and they’re already pretty close to the Pies. So all Craig McRae’s men can do is win by as much as possible; if they do that they’ll be hosting an elimination final at worst.

Friday night: Port Adelaide vs Gold Coast Suns, 8:10pm at Adelaide Oval

The Power will farewell Ken Hinkley as the Suns look to clinch their maiden finals appearance. They need just one win from their two opportunities in this round, but beating both Port Adelaide and Essendon will give them a huge chance of making the top four. A loss would make next Wednesday night verrrrry interesting…

Saturday afternoon: North Melbourne vs Adelaide Crows, 1:20pm at Marvel Stadium

A win will give Adelaide their first minor premiership since 2017, while with a major upset they would likely drop into second.

Saturday twilight: Richmond vs Geelong, 4:15pm at the MCG

If the Crows somehow lose earlier in the day, the Cats will be playing for the minor premiership. Otherwise they will just be looking to seal second spot and a home qualifying final.

Saturday night: West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans, 7:35pm at Optus Stadium

This match does not impact the finals race. The Swans are gonna be good next year, though. The Eagles aren’t.

Sunday early: GWS Giants vs St Kilda, 12:20pm at ENGIE Stadium

The Giants’ upset win over Gold Coast in Round 23 virtually guaranteed them a finals place, so they’re playing for finals seeding – a top-four spot is gettable but unlikely, requiring Collingwood and Gold Coast to each lose a game. With a victory, the Saints would continue their impressive streak of winning 10 games every season this decade.

Sunday afternoon: Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle, 3:15pm at Marvel Stadium

This is the big one. Assuming the Suns beat the Power earlier in the round, this is simply an early elimination final. The winner makes the eight, and has a shot at hosting an actual elimination final, while the loser will finish ninth. They will have the best record of any team to miss the finals in the top eight era. If the Suns didn’t win earlier in the round, the loser will still be alive, and will be cheering madly for the Bombers on Wednesday night.

Sunday night: Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn, 7:20pm at the Gabba

Wins for both sides in Round 23 mean this game isn’t quite as high-stakes as it could’ve been. They’ll both play finals, but instead they’re fighting for a potential double chance. Brisbane would finish top four guaranteed with a win, while Hawthorn would be fighting the likes of Collingwood and Gold Coast on percentage. The loser of this game is likely heading into an away elimination final.

Wednesday night: Gold Coast Suns vs Essendon, 7:20pm at People First Stadium

No, a Wednesday night game on the Gold Coast doesn’t mean we’re back in Covid times. It means what should’ve been the third match of the season is instead the last, and will either determine whether the Suns play finals (if they lost to Port Adelaide) or if they can make the top four (if they beat Port Adelaide). They will know the exact margin they need to boost their percentage past the likes of Collingwood and Hawthorn, should those teams win.

‘The pressure is on them too!’: Longmuir | 01:38

TEAM-BY-TEAM FINALS SCENARIOS

1. ADELAIDE CROWS (17-5, 141%)

Current percentage gap: Approx. one goal ahead of Geelong

To play: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:20pm

Win: Finish 1st

Lose: Finish 2nd if Geelong wins and is above them on percentage (extremely likely), otherwise finish 1st

Analysis: Five years ago, Matthew Nicks’ Crows won the wooden spoon, finishing one spot below North Melbourne. Now a win over those Kangaroos, who are still languishing in the bottom four, will hand Adelaide the minor premiership and complete the largest ladder rise in V/AFL history from 15th to 1st. They’re locked into the top two regardless.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 1st, host Gold Coast in a qualifying final

2. GEELONG (16-6, 140.7%)

Current percentage gap: Approx. one goal behind Adelaide

To play: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Win: Finish 1st if Adelaide loses and is below Cats on percentage (extremely likely), otherwise finish 2nd

Lose: Finish 3rd if Brisbane def Hawthorn, otherwise finish 2nd

Analysis: After avoiding the banana peel known as the Swans, the Cats just need to beat lowly Richmond to clinch a home qualifying final. (They also need to send a bouquet of flowers to the AFL fixturing department for giving them the Tigers twice this year.) Because of their percentage, they can only be caught by Brisbane if they cop a shock loss next Saturday – flipping the location of a likely Cats-Lions qualifying final.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 2nd, host Brisbane in a qualifying final

‘As an industry we got to get better’ | 01:04

3. BRISBANE LIONS (15-6-1, 114.3%)

To play: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Sunday 7:20pm

Win: Finish 2nd if Geelong loses, 3rd if Geelong wins

Lose: Finish 4th if Collingwood, GWS, Gold Coast and Fremantle all lose, 5th if three of those happen, 6th if two happen, 7th if one happens, 8th if none happen

Analysis: Last year’s prelim was pretty epic, so we wouldn’t mind seeing another Lions-Cats final. If the reigning premiers beat Hawthorn next Sunday night that’s what we’ll be seeing, with the game either hosted at the MCG (if Geelong wins) or the Gabba (if Geelong loses). Heck, you could argue with Brisbane’s recent form home and away, they’d rather play it at the MCG. But with the ladder being this tight, the Lions can hardly afford a loss, with the most likely results sending them all the way down into an away elimination final. (We reckon it’d be away to the Giants… another epic 2024 finals rematch!)

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 3rd, away to Geelong in a qualifying final

4. COLLINGWOOD (15-7, 123.1%)

Current percentage gaps: Approx. one goal ahead of Hawthorn, five goals ahead of Gold Coast

To play: Melbourne at the MCG, Friday 7:10pm

Win: Finish 3rd if Hawthorn wins but stays below them on percentage AND Gold Coast either loses once or stays behind them on percentage, 4th if Brisbane wins/Hawthorn wins and gains percentage OR Gold Coast wins both and passes them on percentage, 5th if both happen

Lose: Finish 5th if Gold Coast, Hawthorn and GWS lose, 6th if two of those happen, 7th if one happens, 8th if none happen

Analysis: Another painful, narrow loss leaves the Magpies on the fringe of the top four and arguably reliant on Port Adelaide or Essendon pulling an upset. While the Hawks could pass the Pies on percentage and knock them out of the four, it’s more likely Gold Coast will do it, given they face the lowly Bombers in the final game of the season and will know how much they need to win by. In this way, Collingwood playing before their rivals is a disadvantage; all they can do is try and win by as much as possible. Arguably Hawthorn beating Brisbane would help them because while the Hawks can finish above the Pies with a win, the Lions definitely will.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 5th, host Hawthorn in an elimination final

Gaz GOES OFF at umps missing Crow throw | 03:58

5. HAWTHORN (15-7, 122.7%)

Current percentage gaps: Approx. one goal behind Collingwood, four goals ahead of Gold Coast

To play: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Sunday 7:20pm

Win: Finish 3rd if Gold Coast and Collingwood lose or win but fall below on percentage, 4th if one happens, 5th if neither happens

Lose: Finish 5th if Gold Coast and Collingwood lose by a few goals more than them and GWS loses by any margin, 6th if two of those happen, 7th if one happens, 8th if none happen

Analysis: Their Sunday night showdown with the Lions was threatening to become an elimination final; instead the Hawks and their hosts are playing for a shot at the top four. Sam Mitchell’s men will certainly have a shot at it, given that Brisbane has been worse at home than on the road this season, but with a loss they’re most likely to finish 8th.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Lose and finish 8th, away to Collingwood in an elimination final

6. GWS GIANTS (15-7, 115.5%)

To play: St Kilda at ENGIE Stadium, Sunday 12:20pm

Win: Finish 4th if Gold Coast and Collingwood lose, 5th if one happens, 6th if neither happens

Lose: Finish 7th if Gold Coast loses twice, otherwise finish 8th

Analysis: An impressive win over the Suns leaves the Giants likely heading towards a home elimination final, though if everything goes right (Melbourne def Collingwood and Gold Coast lose to Essendon and/or Port Adelaide), they could still sneak into the top four where nobody would want to face them. Our predicted match-up against the Bulldogs would probably be their worst-case scenario given their recent record against their rivals. A loss will send the Giants into an away elimination final, almost certainly either at the MCG or against the Suns. Note: There is a fringe scenario where the Giants win by enough to finish 3rd if Hawthorn beats Brisbane by very little.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 6th, host Western Bulldogs in an elimination final

Injury puts key Lion in doubt for finals | 00:33

7. FREMANTLE (15-7, 108.6%)

To play: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Win: Finish 4th if all of Gold Coast, Collingwood and GWS lose a game, 5th if two of those happen, 6th if one happen, 7th if none happen

Lose: Will miss finals unless the Suns lose twice, then finish 8th

Analysis: It will be incredibly cruel if the Dockers miss the eight with 15 wins – a total that would’ve got you into every single V/AFL finals series before 2025. But this remarkable season is going to create a remarkable 9th-placed team and, if they can’t beat the Bulldogs on the road next week, it’ll be the Dockers. (Unless the Giants lose by over 100 points, or the Suns lose twice.) If they pull the upset, it’ll be yet another win over a top-nine team, so they’ll deserve to play finals – and the top four is even reachable! But in the end all of those close wins were brilliant but costly; their percentage is not good for their win-loss record and you can look back at games like the pitiful loss to St Kilda and say that’s the moment Fremantle ruined their season.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Lose and miss finals

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (14-8, 140.3%)

To play: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Win: Finish 4th if all of Gold Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn and GWS lose a game, 5th if three happen, 6th if two happen, 7th if one happens, 8th if none happen

Lose: Will miss finals unless the Suns lose twice, then finish 8th

Analysis: A few results went against the Dogs last week but enough has gone right over the past month that their scenario is simple – win and you’re in. They can even sneak into the top four if everything goes right though it’s more likely they’re headed for the 6th vs 7th elimination final, or possibly 8th (which could be against the Hawks again!).

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 7th, away to GWS in an elimination final

Jamarra opens up about shooting incident | 05:00

9. GOLD COAST SUNS (14-7, 121.2%)

Current percentage gaps: Approx. four goals behind Hawthorn, five goals behind Collingwood

To play: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Friday 8:10pm then Essendon at People First Stadium, Wednesday 7:20pm

Win two: Finish 3rd if Hawthorn wins but falls below them on percentage AND Collingwood loses/wins but falls below them on percentage, 4th if Brisbane wins AND Collingwood loses/wins but falls below them on percentage, 5th if Brisbane wins AND Collingwood wins and stays above them on percentage

Win one: Finish 5th if Collingwood, Hawthorn and GWS all lose and are below Suns on percentage, 6th if two happen, 7th if one happens, 8th if none happen

Lose both: Will miss finals

Analysis: Everyone expects the Suns to play finals, only needing to beat Port Adelaide and Essendon sides with nothing to play for… though the Power do have Ken Hinkley to play for. If the Suns drop that game in Adelaide, things get very interesting, as they’ll still need to beat Essendon in the final game of the season to guarantee themselves a September debut, likely in 7th or 8th. But if the Suns beat the Power they can dream of a qualifying final – our predicted scenario will see them needing to beat Essendon by enough to catch Collingwood on percentage.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win twice and finish 4th, away to Adelaide in a qualifying final