After three straight seasons of podium finishes, Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd cannot see anybody stopping Nick Daicos from finally claiming the Brownlow Medal this September.
The Collingwood champion has had a dominant and consistent season, averaging a career-high 35 disposals per game and kicking 22 goals to this point.
Nick Daicos of the Magpies. Getty Images
He has been the favourite to win the medal across the last two seasons, but lost out to Carlton’s Patrick Cripps in 2024 and Gold Coast’s Matt Rowell in 2025, who both unexpectedly polled more votes than any other players in history to do so.
In 2023, he was also the favourite going into the final month of the season, before an injury ended his campaign. He still finished third, just three votes behind the winner.
After three years of narrow misses, Lloyd believes this year’s count could be largely uneventful.
“He came third in 2023, second in 2024 and 2025 and he got a record number of votes two years ago, but he still lost to Patrick Cripps who polled more than him,” Lloyd told Nine’s Today.
“I think it’ll be over with four or five rounds to go this year and he’s just going to win it by the length of the Flemington straight.
“He’s had a dominant season, he’s clearly the best player in the game right now and he will well and truly be a worthy winner.
“He should win it by close to 10 votes I reckon this season.”
The last time a player won the Brownlow Medal by double digits was 2020, with Brisbane star Lachie Neale 10 votes clear of Port Adelaide’s Travis Boak in second.
In 2017, Richmond champion Dustin Martin technically won from Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell by 11 votes, but Geelong star Patrick Dangerfield was ineligible and finished three behind Martin.
Those are the only instances of a Brownlow being decided by double digits this century.
Even with the narrow medal misses, Daicos is putting together one of the best starts to a career of any player in history. At just 23, he will add a fourth All-Australian blazer, he’s 24 votes clear in the AFL Coaches Association Player of the Year award, will likely with the AFLPA MVP and could add that elusive Brownlow.
He is contracted to the Magpies until the end of 2029, but will be in line for an extraordinary pay day before that time comes.
And while Lloyd expects the Devils in particular to have a crack at signing Daicos, he can’t picture him ever leaving Collingwood.
“Tasmania are potentially after him, every club would love him, but I can’t see him wearing any other colours than black and white,” Lloyd said.