Cincinnati Open betting picks for Thursday: upset alerts, safe favorites and value bets across the men’s and women’s first-round matches.
First-round play at the Cincinnati Open begins Thursday. The 32 seeds in the men’s and women’s draws have byes into the second round, but there are still plenty of big names set to take the court Thursday. A pair of former top-10 men’s players are on upset alert, while an American woman will try to give the crowd something to cheer about against an opponent with an underwhelming hard-court resume.
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All men’s and women’s singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Aleksandar Kovacevic (+191) vs. Karen Khachanov
Khachanov has had a rough start to this North American hard-court swing, suffering straight-set losses to Bernard Tomic and Terence Atmane at Los Cabos and the Canadian Open, respectively. The 30-year-old Russian is used to skipping this stage as a perennially seeded player, but Khachanov has dropped to 39th in the rankings and won’t get the benefit of a bye. Ending his slump won’t be easy against Kovacevic, as the 95th-ranked New York native’s aggressive game style should fit nicely in Cincinnati’s quick court conditions. Kovacevic’s 3-19 career record in Masters 1000 main-draw matches doesn’t inspire much confidence, but two of those three wins have come this year.
Adrian Mannarino (+152) vs. Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov hasn’t been able to finish his first match in two of his last three events entered, so the fiery Canadian runs a high risk of being hampered by injury in this match. Even if Shapovalov’s healthy, he could have a tough time dealing with Mannarino’s low and flat groundstrokes, which are most effective in fast conditions. Mannarino reached the Round of 16 at Cincinnati last year, and this is one of two Masters 1000 events in which the 38-year-old Frenchman has made the quarterfinals in his career. Shapovalov has a measly four-spot edge in the rankings at No. 43, and both of these players have sub-.500 records this year.
Honorable Mention
Maria Timofeeva (+155) vs. Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-383) vs. Valentin Royer
Royer actually beat Tsitsipas in their only previous meeting, as Tsitsipas retired after dropping the first two sets to the Frenchman at Wimbledon in 2025. This rematch is likely to turn out differently, as Tsitsipas has been playing inspired tennis recently after some changes to his coaching team and personal life. The former world No. 3 picked up a clay-court title in Gstaad last month and is 22-16 in 2026, while Royer has an unsightly 3-16 record in ATP Tour main-draw matches this year.
Zachary Svajda (-181) vs. Mattia Bellucci
Svajda reached the fourth round of the French Open and third round at Wimbledon, establishing himself as a tough out at big tournaments. The 23-year-old American has outplayed his No. 87 ranking recently and is in peak form, while the 80th-ranked Bellucci is in his first match back after a layoff of nearly two months due to a knee injury. The 25-year-old Italian is just 2-6 on hard courts in 2026 and 15-23 on the surface in his career.
Honorable Mention
Terence Atmane (-223) vs. Marton Fucsovics
Cincinnati Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Raphael Collignon (-158) vs. Mariano Navone
Collignon has broken into the top 40 while showcasing a strong all-court game in 2026. The 24-year-old Belgian won a Challenger event on hard court in February and has four top-50 wins on this surface this year. Navone is ranked only six spots behind Collignon at No. 44, but the bulk of the Argentine’s ranking points come from clay, as Navone is just 3-6 on hard courts in 2026 and 11-27 on this surface in his career.
Alycia Parks (+147) vs. Viktorija Golubic
Parks is a much bigger hitter than Golubic, and that edge in power will be amplified by the fast conditions here. Consistency isn’t the American’s strong suit, but Parks will control play throughout this match against an opponent who struggles on hard courts. The 33-year-old Golubic has never won a main-draw match at the Cincinnati Open, and she’s just 19-36 in main-draw Grand Slam or WTA 1000 matches on hard courts.
Honorable Mention
Daria Kasatkina (-148) vs. Zeynep Sonmez