Fox Footy’s Premiership Window has returned on the cusp of the AFL’s inaugural wildcard round, and it says four teams are in the box seat for a premiership tilt.
The Champion Data-led table, which has been a consistent feature on On The Couch in recent seasons, has proven itself an accurate indicator of what clubs can win the premiership in any given year.
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Teams that rank in the top six for points for and points against have won 19 of the last 20 AFL premierships, while all 20 have ranked in the top six for points against.
So, heading into the post-season, who now sits inside the prized zone?
“It’s a proven formula for success in September. 19 of the last 20 premiers have been inside the window come the end of the home-and-away season,” three-time Coleman Medal winner Jack Riewoldt said on Monday night.
Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong.
From that quartet though, there’s one very notable absentee — the back-to-back reigning premiers Brisbane.
The final Premiership Window for the 2026 AFL season is in… and if history tells us anything, four teams can take out the title.Source: Fox Sports
The Lions’ points against column has paled in comparison to their rival contenders this year, but Lions legend Jonathan Brown believes his former club could buck the trend after winning nine of their last 10 fixtures.
“History’s proven it, no question about it. Can they buck the trend? Has the game changed enough this year?” Brown quizzed.
“Brisbane were really hampered with key defensive personnel in the first half of the year, which I think skews the number. If you look at since (Harris) Andrews, (Darcy) Gardiner, (Ryan) Lester and (Dayne) Zorko have been back together … that team within a team helps solidify results.
“I just wonder whether they’re ready to change history, who knows though.”
Geelong assistant coach and Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley added: “There’s two things that’ll challenge the premiership window more so this year than any other year.
Just a real credit to the group Fagan | 08:08
“I think the game is evolving quicker than even we (coaches) can keep up with at times. The trend from defence to offence … has been, not exponential, but it’s been tracking that way in the last three or four years in particular. The stand rule has brought that about, so how applicable is Opening Round to Round 8?
“The second one is, do you need to be above the line? If Brisbane, for instance, can go and kick 100 points in three or four games in a row, you’re going to be pretty hard to knock over — no matter what their opposition are scoring.
“If you can’t kick 100 yourself, no matter how good your defence is, you’re probably going to be (up against it) in a lot of games.”
Wildcard side Collingwood and the sixth-placed Adelaide remain alive in the race for this year’s flag, while St Kilda were the only team who failed to advance beyond the home-and-away season with a good-enough defensive profile.
Qualifying teams (19 of the last 20 premiers)
Sydney (3rd for points allowed, 1st for points scored)
Fremantle (1st for points allowed, 5th for points scored)
Geelong (5th for points allowed, 3rd for points scored)
Hawthorn (4th for points allowed, 6th for points scored)
Qualifying (via defence only, one of the last 20 premiers)
Adelaide (2nd for points allowed, 7th for offence)
St Kilda (equal 6th for points allowed, 9th for offence)
Collingwood (equal 6th for points allowed, 10th for offence)
Not qualifying
Brisbane (11th for points allowed, 2nd for offence)
Melbourne (13th for points allowed, 4th for offence)
Carlton (8th for points allowed, 12th for offence)
GWS (12th for points allowed, 8th for offence)
Western Bulldogs (9th for points allowed, 14th for offence)
Port Adelaide (10th for points allowed, 15th for offence)
Gold Coast (14th for points allowed, 11th for offence)
North Melbourne (15th for points allowed, 13th for offence)
West Coast (16th for points allowed, 16th for offence)
Richmond (17th for points allowed, 18th for offence)
Essendon (18th for points allowed, 17th for offence)