We can hopefully all agree that every fantasy draft or mock conducted by industry experts is useless in the same way. All of them are chalky. If you have access to industry consensus ranks, then you already more or less know how every expert draft will play out. Most analysts are very solid fantasy managers, but our draft behavior is robotic and highly predictable.
That is to say, we are nothing like the goofballs in your home league. When you get the full sloppy squad together in Nick’s brother’s garage for the annual draft, half of the managers in the league are underprepared and nearly everyone is overserved. Bizarre selections are made — reckless, not-at-all-expert choices.
Well, your friends at The Athletic Football Show decided to throw together a draft involving the hosts (Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman), two fantasy analysts (Jake Ciely and myself), one reformed fantasy analyst (Michael Beller) and four distinguished sports media personalities who were too kind to refuse the invitation (Adam Amin, Carmen Vitali, Courtney Cronin and Kevin Fishbain). The results align well with what you might expect out in the real world, in America’s bars, basements and garages.
But our draft board doesn’t resemble a standard-issue fantasy industry mock. You can watch the full exercise unfold right here:
Here’s a look at our first dozen rounds:
I won’t waste any words on a breakdown of my draft or Jake’s. We did what was expected of us, in the numbingly dull manner of fantasy veterans. (Credit to Jake for remaining very on brand and refusing to select a kicker on draft night.) Also, I won’t feed you a series of takeaways; you don’t need an expert to tell you that quarterbacks are plentiful and running backs are not.
Instead, let’s focus on the agents of chaos in this league. Our draft involved five distinct manager-types who can be found out in the wild:
The person whose fantasy roster is just an extension of their college fandom. Michael Beller owned this role, fully. His roster is so Big Ten heavy that Dave Revsine, Gerry DiNardo and Howard Griffith just added a 19th stop on the conference camp tour schedule. As you will learn within seven seconds of meeting Beller — or simply by looking at the third overall pick in our draft (Jonathan Taylor) — he is a Wisconsin grad. It was no great shock to see him snag Jake Ferguson as his starting tight end in a 10-team league. It was, however, a mild surprise that he did not burn picks on Braelon Allen, Russell Wilson and Chimere Dike.
The late-arriving auto-picker. No shade intended toward Courtney here, because her day began with television responsibilities in a different time-zone. She was en route from the airport when the draft launched. Out in the actual world where things get messy, someone is always not-quite-present for a full draft. Happens all the time. If you’re gonna auto-pick your way through a round or two, let’s hope it happens at the very top. Courtney auto’d Saquon Barkley and CeeDee Lamb, which is hardly a disaster scenario. Her team is a threat.
The manager who selects a player simply because someone else recently said the name. Fishbain, it turns out, is highly persuadable. A few of us were discussing Harold Fannin’s ascension as the draft timer ticked down on Kevin, and — bang — he soon selected his second tight end. Later, after Jake specifically mentioned Jakobi Meyers as the type of low-ceiling player you never need to draft, Fishbain took the bait again. Just a classic hear-it, draft-it manager. A more cutthroat room definitely would have forced Zack Moss and Eno Benjamin onto his roster.
Someone who just gets their guys, without regard to ADP. I have the greatest admiration for this sort of manager — someone completely untouched by the tyranny of ADP. I mean, it’s not as if average draft position is actually the answer key to the season ahead. It’s just the best guess of the nodding herd. Colston Loveland definitely is not supposed to get taken in the second round, nor is he supposed to be the first tight end off the board. Carmen Vitali did. Not. Care. Seventeenth overall pick? Let’s go. This is the team you have to live with for the next five months, so you’d better like it.
The self-deprecating manager who is, in fact, a shark. Dave Helman repeatedly insisted that he is a hopeless fantasy player, a novice. Some yokel who wandered into the draft room, no threat to the rest of us. Curious, then, that he would draft every fantasy hipster’s favorite players. Dalton Kincaid? Quinshon Judkins? KC Concepcion? Dave took ‘em all. It’s almost as if he talks football for a living. Beware the manager who downplays their fantasy aptitude. When they approach you with a trade idea, immediately hire an attorney. Agree to nothing. Do not engage.
Just for the record, we are playing out this league — it’s not some abstract fantasy exercise. Someone is winning this thing and nine managers are eventually losing. This means, of course, that Ciely will be forced to add a kicker to his roster at some point. He can’t hold out forever. When it happens, we will alert you on all available platforms.