Each NBA season comes with expectations. Before a season begins, fans already have a preconceived notion of how teams will perform. Sometimes fans and analysts hit the nail on the head, while other times they end up far from accurate.
Last season, many fans and analysts predicted the New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder to reach the Finals. For the most part, they were correct. The Knicks won the NBA championship, and the Thunder got bounced in the Western Conference finals.
We have no way of knowing what will take place next season. We only have an idea. So, here are the four most overrated teams that will likely lose more games than last season:
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Houston Rockets
Apr 10, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) reacts after a free throw attempt during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
The Rockets had high expectations last season, even with Fred VanVleet injured for the entirety of the year. The team had an impressive season, finishing with 52 wins and the fifth seed in the Western Conference.
VanVleet returns for the Rockets this season, and they acquired Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic. The team improved on paper, but they lack chemistry and a consistent ball-handler. Durant was a shaky ball-handler last season and hurt the roster’s chemistry when his X account leaked. As long as Durant is on this roster, this team won’t win anything of substance.
Cleveland Cavaliers
May 21, 2026; New York, New York, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard James Harden (1) controls the ball against the New York Knicks during the second quarter of game two of the eastern conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
The Cavaliers finished fourth in the Eastern Conference last year with 52 wins. They made headlines at the deadline for shortening their championship window by acquiring James Harden for Darius Garland.
Cleveland initially held out for LeBron, but as he chose Philadelphia, they scrambled to find another piece. They ended up acquiring Mario Hezonja and Payton Watson, two players who won’t benefit the team too much.
The roster got worse, and Harden is aging, making Cleveland a top candidate for regression.
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Orlando Magic
Apr 29, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) walks off the court after the game against the Detroit Pistons during game five of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
The Magic were a play-in team last season, fighting for a spot in the NBA playoffs. This season might be a bit worse.
Their team is essentially the same as last season, only losing Moe Wagner and Jett Howard. They brought in Nikola Vucevic and a new head coach. This team is led by Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Desmond Bane. It’s a great core three, but they lack good depth, and it’s their head coach’s first season. They will likely be a play-in team again with fewer wins.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Apr 14, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (1) is given a prime award after the second half overtime win during the play-in rounds between the Charlotte Hornets and the Miami Heat of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
This might come as a shock, but the 49-win Timberwolves are top regression candidates. Minnesota traded Julius Randle and Naz Reid but acquired LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga.
The Timberwolves definitely improved on paper, but with young teams, it usually takes some time to adjust. Their starting five is among the best in the league, and they have all the right depth pieces to be a great team. The issue is not the skill but the chemistry. This team could be one of the best in the league, but they could also be fighting for a playoff spot.
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