Top MMA DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Paris
UFC DFS expert picks for this Saturday’s UFC Paris card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event. Welcome to Drake’s Takes.
UFC Shanghai Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 241-103-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Pinto
Fanduel Captain: Pinto
Salahdine Parnasse (23-2-0) v. Dan Hooker (24-14-0)
Height: 5’10” – Reach: 73″ – Stance: SouthpawRecord: 23-2 (8 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)Extremely well-rounded with slick striking, strong movement, and a dangerous submission gameDoes an excellent job mixing his weapons together and can quickly capitalize when opponents give him openings
Height: 6’0″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 24-14 (11 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)Long, aggressive striker who thrives in high-paced fights and is willing to trade in the pocketExtremely tough and experienced against elite competition, but his willingness to engage has resulted in plenty of damage throughout his career
DFS Perspective: This is a big opportunity for Parnasse to show that his success outside the UFC translates against proven UFC competition. Hooker is as tough as they come and has fought a much higher level of competition, but he’s also taken a ton of damage throughout his career. Parnasse is younger, more well-rounded and should have the grappling advantage if he chooses to use it. I like Parnasse to make a statement in his UFC debut and get the win.
UFC Paris pick: Parnasse
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Fares Ziam (18-5-0) v. Axel Sola (12-1-1)
Height: 6’1″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 18-5 (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)Technical, defensively sound striker who uses his length well and has become increasingly comfortable mixing wrestling into his gameHas developed into a difficult fighter to deal with because of his patience, range management, and ability to win minutes without taking much damage
Height: 6’0″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: SouthpawRecord: 12-1-1 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)Well-rounded prospect who pressures effectively and is comfortable transitioning between his striking and grapplingHas shown plenty of upside, but this is a significant step up against an established UFC lightweight who is difficult to look good against
DFS Perspective: This is a tough test for Sola, but I slightly lean toward him because of his speed and power advantage. Ziam is technical, experienced and difficult to look good against, but Sola has the explosiveness to make him uncomfortable and land the more damaging shots. It’s a close fight, but I’ll take a shot on Sola to get the win.
UFC Paris pick: Sola
Michael Page (25-3-0) v. Nursulton Ruziboev (37-9-2)
Height: 6’3″ – Reach: 79″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 25-3 (12 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)Extremely unorthodox striker who relies on speed, movement, and distance management to frustrate opponentsDifficult to hit cleanly, but his patient style can produce slow fights where neither fighter creates much consistent offense
Height: 6’2″ – Reach: 76″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 37-9-2 (13 KO/TKO, 21 submissions)Dangerous finisher with legitimate power on the feet and an aggressive submission game when fights hit the groundHis length and finishing instincts give him multiple ways to threaten opponents rather than simply trying to win minutes
DFS Perspective: MVP just fights too slowly for me to ever feel comfortable picking him, especially for DFS. Ruziboev has the length to make this more interesting than a typical Page fight and has legitimate finishing ability wherever it goes. Hopefully, he can force MVP out of his comfort zone and create enough offense to steal this one. I’ll take a flier on Ruziboev as the dog.
UFC Paris pick: Ruziboev
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Punahele Soriano (13-4-0) v. Daniil Donchenko (14-2-0)
Height: 5’11” – Reach: 72″ – Stance: SouthpawRecord: 13-4 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)Powerful striker with legitimate knockout ability who is at his best when he can pressure forward and land his left handHas added more wrestling to his game, giving him another path to score when opponents don’t allow him to simply hunt for the knockout
Height: 5’11” – Reach: 71″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 14-2 (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)Dangerous, athletic striker with good speed and finishing power who carries a significant amount of offense on the feetHas the size and length to give Soriano problems at range while still being willing to engage when the fight gets aggressive
DFS Perspective: This is another fight I like targeting because both guys have legitimate finishing power. Soriano is dangerous and has the UFC experience advantage, but Donchenko’s size and length could give him problems on the feet. I slightly prefer Donchenko to keep Soriano at range and eventually land something big. There is risk on both sides, but the winner could put up a very strong DFS score.
UFC Paris pick: Donchenko
Kurtis Campbell (8-1-0) v. Trevor Peek (9-3-0)
Height: 5’9″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 8-1 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Athletic prospect with good size for the division and dangerous offense when he’s able to establish his rangeStill relatively inexperienced and now gets an opponent who is going to constantly pressure him and test his ability to fight moving backward
Height: 5’9″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 9-3 (8 KO/TKO)Relentless pressure fighter with an iron chin who is willing to absorb damage to create opportunities for his own offenseThrows with bad intentions and never stops pushing forward, making his fights chaotic and difficult for opponents to control
DFS Perspective: This is another fight that could honestly go either way, so I’ll take my chances with the large dog. Peek has an iron chin, never stops pushing forward and employs a style that can turn a technical fight into a brawl very quickly. There is always plenty of risk when backing Peek, but at his price, the payoff could be huge if he can drag Campbell into his type of fight and pull off the upset.
UFC Paris pick: Peek
Losene Keita (16-2-0) v. Muhammad Naimov (13-4-0)
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 16-2 (10 KO/TKO)Explosive striker with excellent speed, power, and the ability to close distance quickly with combinationsPushes a strong pace and carries legitimate finishing upside whenever he can keep the fight in striking exchanges
Height: 5’9″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 13-4 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Physical, well-rounded fighter who can mix his striking with takedowns and make opponents work in the clinchTough and experienced with the type of wrestling that could be important against a dangerous striker like Keita
DFS Perspective: Naimov has the wrestling and physicality to make this interesting, but I like Keita’s speed and explosiveness to be the difference. Keita is dangerous whenever he gets space to work, and I expect him to land cleaner, more damaging shots. Naimov’s best path is making this ugly with his grappling, but I’ll side with Keita to keep enough of this fight standing and get the win.
UFC Paris pick: Keita
Morgan Charriere (21-12-1) v. Felipe Lima (14-2-0)
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 21-12-1 (13 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Powerful, physical striker who does his best work when he can pressure forward and turn fights into damaging exchangesExtremely experienced and difficult to put away, with enough power to punish opponents who get too aggressive
Height: 5’6″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 14-2 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Fast, athletic fighter who pushes a strong pace and mixes his striking and grappling together wellUses his length effectively and can create DFS scoring through volume, takedowns, and control rather than relying solely on a finish
DFS Perspective: Charriere is dangerous enough to make this competitive, but I prefer Lima’s overall game. He should have the speed and length advantage while also giving Charriere different things to worry about with his grappling. Charriere absolutely has the power to change the fight with one shot, but I expect Lima to be the busier fighter and take over as the fight goes on. I like Lima to get the win with solid DFS upside.
UFC Paris pick: Lima
Mario Pinto (12-0-0) v. Ryan Spann (24-11-0)
Height: 6’5″ – Reach: 79″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 12-0 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Undefeated heavyweight with serious power who has shown the ability to end fights quickly when opponents give him openingsBig, physical fighter who is comfortable pushing forward and forcing opponents to deal with his power from the opening bell
Height: 6’5″ – Reach: 79″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 24-11 (7 KO/TKO, 14 submissions)Dangerous veteran with legitimate finishing ability both on the feet and through his submission gameExtremely unpredictable from fight to fight, but remains dangerous enough to capitalize quickly on mistakes
DFS Perspective:
Spann is always dangerous, but he’s also incredibly difficult to trust. Pinto is undefeated and has legitimate power, so this feels like a good opportunity for him to make a statement against a recognizable veteran. Spann’s submission game gives him an upset path, but I like Pinto to hurt him on the feet and find the finish. Pinto profiles as one of the stronger DFS targets on the card.
UFC Paris pick: Pinto
Oumar Sy (12-2-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (20-7-0)
Height: 6’4″ – Reach: 83″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 12-2 (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)Huge light heavyweight who uses his length and physicality well, with his strongest work coming through wrestling and top controlCan chain takedowns together and grind opponents down, giving him a strong DFS scoring path when he’s able to dictate where the fight takes place
Height: 6’3″ – Reach: 76″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 20-7 (11 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Experienced striker with good movement, solid power, and the ability to attack effectively from rangeHas become more difficult to deal with during his second UFC run and brings considerably more high-level experience into this matchup
DFS Perspective:
Bukauskas is dangerous on the feet, but I like the wrestling and physicality from Sy in this matchup. Sy has the size and reach to compete with Bukauskas at range, but I expect him to eventually close distance and start putting his grappling to work. If he can consistently get Bukauskas down, the takedowns and control time give him a very solid DFS ceiling. I like Sy to get the win.
UFC Paris pick: Sy
Nathaniel Wood (23-6-0) v. Pavel Andrusca (8-0-0)
Height: 5’6″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 23-6 (7 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)High-volume, well-rounded fighter who combines technical striking with solid wrestling and a strong paceExperienced against UFC-level competition and does a good job making adjustments when opponents try to take away his preferred approach
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: NA – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 8-0 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Undefeated prospect with good size, athleticism, and confidence on the feetFaces a significant step up in competition against an opponent with nearly four times as much professional experience
DFS Perspective: Andrusca is undefeated and certainly interesting, but this is a massive step up in competition. Wood has been in there with much better fighters and brings a well-rounded game that should allow him to test Andrusca everywhere. I expect Wood’s experience and pace to eventually separate the two. I’ll side with Wood to hand Andrusca his first loss, although I’m interested to see how the undefeated prospect handles this level of competition.
UFC Paris pick: Wood
Fabia Sintes (11-3-0) v. Michael Aljarouj (12-3-0)
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 11-3 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)Well-rounded fighter who is comfortable mixing his striking with grappling rather than relying on one areaBrings solid professional experience and has shown the ability to stay composed when fights become competitive
Height: 5’5″ – Reach: 66″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 12-3 (7 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Athletic fighter with good size who is willing to pressure forward and create offenseHas enough versatility to make this competitive wherever it goes and enters with a similar level of professional experience
DFS Perspective: This feels like a pretty evenly matched fight, with no clear advantage on either side. I slightly prefer Sintes as the more well-rounded option, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in it. Unless the pricing gives us a reason to take a shot, this is probably a fight I’m not going out of my way to target for DFS.
UFC Paris pick: Sintes
Nora Cornolle (9-4-0) v. Klaudia Sygula (8-2-0)
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 9-4 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)Physical striker with a Muay Thai-heavy approach who does some of her best work with knees and kicks at close rangeCarries legitimate power for the division and is comfortable making fights ugly when she can pressure opponents toward the cage
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 8-2 (2 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Athletic striker with good size who prefers working from range and putting together combinationsHas continued to develop her overall game but is still relatively inexperienced against established UFC competition
DFS Perspective: I like Sygula here to avoid the knockout and keep this fight where she wants it. She has the size and length to work from range, and I expect her to pile up volume as the fight goes on. Cornolle has the power to make things interesting, but I like Sygula to stay busy and outwork her over three rounds.
UFC Paris pick: Sygula
Luis Felipe Dias (17-5-0) v. Matthieu Duclos (12-3-0)
Height: 5’10” – Reach: 74″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 17-5 (8 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)Experienced, physical fighter who is comfortable pressuring forward and turning fights into gritty exchangesHas considerably more professional experience and can mix his striking with grappling when opponents give him opportunities
Height: 6’3″ – Reach: 76″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 12-3 (8 KO/TKO)Aggressive striker with good size and power who is willing to engage when opponents bring the fight to himDangerous when he can establish his offense early and has the physical tools to make this a competitive matchup
DFS Perspective: This feels like another fairly competitive fight where I don’t see a huge advantage on either side. Dias has the experience edge, but Duclos has enough size and power to make him pay if the fight turns into extended exchanges. I’ll slightly side with Dias because of his experience and more well-rounded game, but I don’t have enough confidence to make him a priority for DFS.
UFC Paris pick: Dias
Delphine Benouaich (7-2-0) v. Sofia Montenegro (6-2-0)
Height: 5’3″ – Reach: 63″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 7-2 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Technical striker who is comfortable fighting at range and putting together combinations when she establishes her rhythmStill relatively inexperienced, but has shown a composed approach and the ability to win extended striking exchanges
Height: 5’6″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 6-2 (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Aggressive fighter who looks to close distance and turn fights into more physical exchangesHas enough versatility to make the fight competitive but remains largely untested against higher-level opposition
DFS Perspective: There isn’t much separating these two for me, and neither side gives me much confidence in DFS. I slightly prefer Benouaich to use her striking and control the exchanges at range, but this feels like a fight that could stay competitive throughout. Lean Benouaich, but it’s probably a DFS pass unless the pricing makes one side extremely appealing.
UFC Paris pick: Benouaich
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered “power strikes” by official scorers.A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered “power strikes” by official scorers.A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.