The NHL season is quickly approaching. To speed up the wait until the puck finally drops on the season, I’ll be previewing one team every day. I’ll be going one division at a time and publishing these in the order I think they’ll finish from first to worst. I’m starting with the Metropolitan Division.

Last year’s finish: 6th in Metropolitan Division

Playoffs: No playoffs

Predicted finish: 8th in Metropolitan Division

It’s amazing what one lucky set of ping-pong balls can do for an organization.

Heading into the 2025 NHL Draft lottery, the Islanders were in no-man’s land. They finished well outside of the playoff conversation, but they were only a perfectly mediocre 35-35-12. It was an uncomfortable position for a team that wasn’t exactly young.

But the hockey gods smiled upon the Islanders, and New York won the draft lottery despite having a 3.5 percent chance of doing so. The Islanders used the pick to take defenseman Matthew Schaefer, and the rest is history.

Schaefer was a little bit of an unknown entering the league last year because he missed most of his draft year due to injury. Schaefer wasn’t really expected to be the same caliber of player as the last two first overall picks (Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard), and it’s rare for 18-year-old defensemen to make it to the NHL straight out of the draft.

But Schaefer was immediately a game-changing talent for the Islanders. Schaefer was extremely productive in the offensive end, finishing the year with 59 points. It wasn’t just all points, either, as Schaefer dominated his minutes. With Schaefer on the ice at five on five, the Islanders had a 50.2 percent expected goals share and a plus-14 goal differential. Without him, New York’s expected goals share dropped to 45.8 percent with a minus-27 goal differential.

Schaefer, despite only turning 18 last September, finished the year as the league’s third-best defenseman, according to Hockey Stats’ WAR metric. Schaefer’s big year was boosted by some incredible finishing, as he scored a whopping 23 goals on 17.2 expected. But even if the finishing regresses this year, he’s still going to create a lot with his shot, which is a weapon at both five on five and on the power play.

Ilya Sorokin is still one of the league’s best netminders. After struggling three years ago and then having a decent year in 2024-25, Sorokin was back at the top of his game last season. Sorokin saved 27.5 goals above expected (GSAx), which was the second-most in the league. Since the 2021-22 season, only Igor Shesterkin and Connor Hellebuyck have a better GSAx than Sorokin.

With a phenom in Schaefer, a franchise goaltender in Sorokin and a one-two punch of forwards in Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, the Islanders should be able to steal some games. But there’s not enough behind them to make them a truly competitive team.

Even with all of those players, the Islanders were 24th in expected goals share at five on five, and it’s not like there’s much of a youth movement aside to suggest they’ll improve.

Aside from Schaefer and Adam Pelech, the defensive corps is a mess. Alexander Romanov hasn’t panned out like the Islanders hoped when they traded a first-round pick for him, and he missed most of last season. Pretty much everyone else is over the age of 30 and declining. Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield were fine defensemen during the Islanders’ trips to the conference finals, but it’s not 2021 anymore. Tony DeAngelo is also still here somehow.

The forward group isn’t much better. The Islanders paid up for Brayden Schenn at the trade deadline for some reason, and his best days are behind him. The same goes for Kyle Palmieri and Ondrej Palat. Matias Maccelli is a decent depth add, and hopefully Calum Ritchie puts it together this year. But there’s just not much to write home about here. Anders Lee leaving for Utah is also a huge loss.

Schaefer is going to change the franchise’s fortunes, but for now, the Islanders still have a lot of growing pains to get through.

All stats are from Hockey Stats