What used to be the AFL’s most predictable week of finals is now arguably its most dramatic.
And recent history suggests one of the two premiership favourites from just one week ago will be heading out of September in straight sets.
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Fremantle and Brisbane were both stunned in their qualifying finals last weekend; but thanks to their hard work in the home and away season, both have the double chance and will get another go this week, hosting semi-finals against Geelong and Adelaide respectively.
The Lions know how important that is; just last year, they lost a qualifying final convincingly to the Cats, but went the long way around on route to beating Geelong in the Grand Final.
But they are the post-Covid exception, because over the past half-decade, the qualifying losers haven’t just failed to make Grand Finals – they’ve often failed to make a prelim.
Fremantle and Brisbane are staring down straight-sets finals exits.Source: FOX SPORTS
Over the past five seasons, the lower-ranked teams have won six of 10 semi-finals, seeing a sextet sent out in straight sets – Brisbane (2021), Melbourne (2022), Melbourne (2023), Port Adelaide (2023), GWS (2024) and Adelaide (2025).
This is in stark contrast to what footy fans were used to across the first 15 years of this century.
Between 2000 and 2013, just two teams were knocked out in straight sets (Port Adelaide 2001 and West Coast 2007).
It was far more common to see semi-finals being blowouts, with the gap between top-four teams and 5th-to-8th finishers being enormous.
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The AFL’s equalisation efforts since the league went to 18 teams, combined with the pre-finals bye allowing teams who were limping into finals to pull themselves together (like the 2016 Bulldogs), have clearly had a large impact.
The gap has been closed. Last year was the best example of this; Hawthorn’s win over Adelaide was the first time 8th had beaten 1st in the AFL finals, making it sound like a substantial upset.
But Adelaide had won 18 games in the home and away season, while Hawthorn had still won 15; their two meetings before the finals were split, and decided by a combined 17 points. Those teams were close.
It was a far cry from semi-finals like we saw in 2010 (Geelong thumping Fremantle by 69 points, fairly reflecting the 44-point gap in their percentages) or 2005 (minor premiers Adelaide obliterating 11-win Port Adelaide by 83 points). We can still get blowouts, like Lions-Suns last year, but the gaps in team quality just don’t exist.
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What does all of this mean?
Well, for a start, don’t buy into the usual wisdom that the qualifying final losers will bounce back. History suggests one of them will lose this weekend.
But we also shouldn’t declare those sides frauds if they lose. Of the nine teams that went out in straight sets since 2016, six of them bounced back to play finals the next year, including 2025 minor premiers Adelaide who now find themselves on the other side of the equation.
We know Geelong can beat Fremantle because they did it earlier this year. And while they lost this year’s match-up comfortably, Adelaide beat Brisbane midway through last year, with mostly similar line-ups to run out there on Saturday night.
It would be a brutal way for either home side’s season to end – for the Lions’ quest to a threepeat to end limply, or for the Dockers’ incredible year that had everyone dreaming of a maiden premiership to end without them even winning one final. The fallout for Freo would be even worse than for Adelaide last year, given the expectations.
It would also be pretty normal. Because that’s the modern AFL.
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AFL SEMI-FINAL RESULTS (Since introduction of the pre-finals bye)
2016
[7] Western Bulldogs def [3] Hawthorn, 107-84
[1] Sydney def [5] Adelaide, 118-82
2017
[2] Geelong def [6] Sydney, 98-39
[4] GWS def [8] West Coast, 125-58
2018
[5] Melbourne def [4] Hawthorn, 104-71
[3] Collingwood def [7] GWS, 69-59
2019
[1] Geelong def [5] West Coast, 88-68
[6] GWS def [2] Brisbane, 83-80
2020
[3] Richmond def [6] St Kilda, 80-49
[4] Geelong def [8] Collingwood, 100-32
2021
[3] Geelong def [7] GWS, 103-68
[5] Western Bulldogs def [4] Brisbane, 79-78
2022
[6] Brisbane def [2] Melbourne, 92-79
[4] Collingwood def [5] Fremantle, 79-59
2023
[5] Carlton def [4] Melbourne, 73-71
[7] GWS def [3] Port Adelaide, 93-70
2024
[2] Port Adelaide def [7] Hawthorn, 75-72
[5] Brisbane def [4] GWS, 105-100
2025
[8] Hawthorn def [1] Adelaide, 101-67
[3] Brisbane def [7] Gold Coast, 100-47
Total: Higher seed 11 wins, lower seed 9 wins
Last five years: Lower seed 6 wins, higher seed 4 wins
*There was no pre-finals bye in 2021