In a fortnight, Major League Baseball’s regular season will officially be over, and the postseason picture will be complete.
How boring that certainty will be!
With four series remaining on each team’s schedule, we still have division races undecided, wild-card byes up for grabs, two teams within two games of the last AL wild-card spot and the two NL teams dueling for the No. 6 seed lining up for a series on the last weekend of the regular season.
Below, we list each contender’s remaining schedule, playoff odds and strength-of-schedule figures — the latter two provided by FanGraphs. We also pick a key upcoming series for each team. Only teams with at least 10 percent playoff odds are included in this exercise.
Teams are listed in order of playoff odds. Winning percentages and odds are updated through Sunday afternoon.
AMERICAN LEAGUETampa Bay Rays
Record: 90-59
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .521
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Home
.407
Sept. 18-20
3
Home
.547
Sept. 22-24
4
Road
.577
Sept. 25-27
3
Road
.553
Key series: Sept. 22-24 at Yankees
The Rays have a tough last two weeks. They have three home games against the A’s but finish with a 10-game gauntlet against three playoff teams, including those with the second- and third-best records in the AL. The Red Sox can’t be overlooked, but it’s the four-game series at Yankee Stadium that stands out. That series could decide not only the AL East, but also determine which team gets the top seed and thus a first-round bye in the postseason. The Rays currently hold a four-game lead over the Yankees.
New York Yankees
Record: 86-63
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .508
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 14-16
3
Road
.470
Sept. 18-20
3
Road
.527
Sept. 22-24
4
Home
.604
Sept. 25-27
3
Home
.480
Key series: Sept. 22-24 vs. Rays
A May 23 rainout has set the stage for a crucial late-season doubleheader on Sept. 22. The Yankees have been chasing the Rays since the end of June, and now those teams will square off in the final week of the season, playing four games in three days in the Bronx. As noted above, that series could determine not only which team wins the division but also which team gets a first-round bye. The rest of the Yankees’ remaining schedule isn’t exactly a bunch of layups — the Twins, Diamondbacks and Orioles all have been at least vaguely in the playoff hunt in the second half — but it pales in comparison to a marquee Yankee Stadium matchup with first place on the line.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 82-68
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .520
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Road
.493
Sept. 18-20
3
Road
.604
Sept. 22-24
3
Home
.507
Sept. 25-27
3
Home
.553
Key series: Sept. 18-20 vs. Rays
Despite having the third-best record in the American League, the Red Sox are barely alive for the AL East title. Maybe if they sweep the Rays this weekend, the Red Sox could still make a push? More likely, the Red Sox will settle for being a wild card. They happen to play two other wild-card contenders — the Rangers and Guardians — in the last two weeks, but there’s an argument the Red Sox would be better off losing those series to get the third wild-card spot and a potentially easier path to the pennant. What they really need in the last two weeks is a chance to overtake the Yankees for the top wild card and thus home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series, but they need some outside help to make that happen.
Houston Astros
Record: 75-75
Playoff odds: 76.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .484
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Home
.440
Sept. 18-20
3
Home
.587
Sept. 22-23
2
Road
.467
Sept. 24-27
4
Road
.407
Key series: Sept. 24-27 at Athletics
The AL West has been a mess. The Astros are a .500 team, but that’s enough to lead the division. Even the Astros had a losing record at the All-Star break but played well enough in the second half to lead a division in which the Mariners have drastically underperformed and the Rangers have struggled to get above .500. For the Astros, a two-game series against the Mariners might have playoff implications, and the Braves are a tough late-season matchup, but those final four games against the A’s in West Sacramento stand out as an opportunity to beat up on a weak opponent and potentially clinch a weak division.
Chicago White Sox
Record: 76-73
Playoff odds: 76.2 percent
Strength of schedule: .469
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 14-16
3
Road
.507
Sept. 17-20
4
Home
.470
Sept. 22-24
3
Road
.440
Sept. 25-27
3
Home
.369
Key series: Sept. 14-16 at Guardians
Here we are in September, and the White Sox are still in a playoff position. Their rise from laughingstock to contender is no longer a midseason anomaly. Now the question is whether they can finish it off and actually play in October — perhaps even as the AL’s No. 2 seed. Chicago’s final week is relatively light against two last-place teams. Before that, the White Sox will play the team they’re battling for the division title (Guardians) and the team that was supposed to win the division title (Tigers). That Guardians series is especially interesting: One of those two teams is almost certainly going to win the AL Central, and it’s entirely possible the other won’t even make the playoffs.
Cleveland Guardians
Record: 76-74
Playoff odds: 66.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .472
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 14-16
3
Home
.510
Sept. 18-20
3
Home
.407
Sept. 22-24
3
Road
.547
Sept. 25-27
3
Road
.440
Key series: Sept. 14-16 vs. White Sox
Trying to make their third straight postseason under manager Stephen Vogt, the Guardians will finish this season with two relatively weak opponents (Athletics and Royals), a relatively strong opponent (Red Sox) and an impossible-to-overlook opponent (White Sox). The White Sox series will be one of the biggest in baseball these final two weeks. With the Tigers falling well short of expectations, the AL Central has become a battle of preseason underdogs — FanGraphs picked the Guardians and White Sox to finish fourth and fifth in the division — and these next three head-to-head games could determine which one actually wins the Central. The winner could end up with a first-round bye as the AL’s No. 2 seed. The loser might miss the playoffs altogether.
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 75-75
Playoff odds: 42.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .489
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 14-16
3
Home
.470
Sept. 18-20
3
Road
.493
Sept. 21-23
3
Road
.480
Sept. 25-27
3
Home
.470
Key series: Sept. 18-20 at Rangers
In early August, the Blue Jays’ playoff odds hovered around 6 percent as they dealt with injuries and disappointing play. At the time, it seemed all but certain last year’s pennant winners wouldn’t even make the postseason. But the Blue Jays went 17-11 in August to get back in the hunt, and now they’re heading down the stretch within reach of the AL’s third wild-card spot — which could put them on the easiest side of the playoff bracket. The Orioles and Rangers are also chasing that last playoff spot, and while the Orioles are a division rival, the Rangers swept the Blue Jays in a four-game series earlier this season. The Jays can’t afford a similar letdown in the final two weeks.
Texas Rangers
Record: 74-76
Playoff odds: 30.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .514
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Home
.547
Sept. 18-20
3
Home
.500
Sept. 22-24
3
Home
.463
Sept. 25-27
3
Road
.470
Key series: Sept. 25-27 vs. Twins
Here’s the good news for the Rangers: They’ve been excellent at home this season, and play their next nine games at Globe Life Field. Included in that lengthy homestand is a three-game series against the Blue Jays, who are also in the wild-card race and whom the Rangers swept in a four-game series earlier this year. That’s a decent opportunity for the Rangers to make a push. But if the AL’s last playoff spot comes down to the final weekend of the regular season, the Rangers have an interesting challenge finishing with a three-game series in Minnesota. The Rangers have been much worse on the road, and they were swept by the Twins earlier this season.
If things hold, Brice Turang and the Milwaukee Brewers would play either the Phillies or Cubs in the NLDS (John Fisher / Getty Images)
NATIONAL LEAGUEMilwaukee Brewers
Record: 93-57
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .515
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-17
3
Road
.500
Sept. 18-20
3
Road
.480
Sept. 22-24
3
Road
.553
Sept. 25-27
3
Home
.493
Key series: Sept. 22-24 at Phillies
The Brewers’ quest to be MLB’s first 100-win team since 2023 may come down to how they fare on their last road trip of the season, a 10-day jaunt through Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Philadelphia. No slouches, but only one projected playoff team: Philadelphia. Milwaukee took two of three from the Phillies in June, shutting them out twice at home, but the Fightin’ Phils have been far better in the second half. If the current playoff positions hold, the No. 1 seed Brewers would play either the Phillies or Cubs in the NLDS.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 90-59
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .456
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 14-17
4
Road
.470
Sept. 18-20
3
Home
.416
Sept. 22-24
3
Home
.541
Sept. 25-27
3
Road
.416
Key series: Sept. 22-24 vs. Padres
With the Dodgers 2 1/2 games clear of the Braves for the NL’s second seed and a wild-card bye, these last two weeks matter quite a lot. They could be the difference between hosting the Padres in a best-of-three Wild Card Series and resting at home for a few extra days before the NLDS. The Dodgers have punished the Padres this season, winning seven of their 10 meetings so far. But with Shohei Ohtani on the injured list until at least Sept. 23, how close to full strength are the Dodgers at this point in the year?
Atlanta Braves
Record: 88-62
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .493
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 14-16
3
Road
.553
Sept. 18-20
3
Road
.500
Sept. 22-24
3
Home
.470
Sept. 25-27
3
Road
.493
Key series: Sept. 14-16 at Cubs
Given the questions surrounding the Braves’ starting pitching plan beyond ace Chris Sale, securing a wild-card bye would be a monumental achievement for these NL East leaders. After the Braves’ series win over the division-rival Phillies over the weekend, that goal of catching the No. 2-seed Dodgers is still in sight. The Braves won a three-game series with the Cubs in May. They’ll have their hands full in front of a full house at Wrigley Field this week as the Cubs jockey for home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series.
Chicago Cubs
Record: 83-67
Playoff odds: 99 percent
Strength of schedule: .501
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 14-16
3
Home
.587
Sept. 18-20
3
Road
.470
Sept. 22-24
3
Home
.493
Sept. 25-27
3
Road
.547
Key series: Sept. 14-16 vs. Braves
This is not a cupcake finishing stretch for the Cubs as they try to edge the Phillies for the No. 4 seed and host those teams’ likely Wild Card Series matchup. The good news for the Cubs: They hold the tiebreaker over Philadelphia by virtue of a 6-1 head-to-head record this season. The Braves, however, took two of three from the Cubs in May, and they have plenty to play for with a first-round bye within reach. The Cubs will avoid facing Chris Sale in this series and have a chance to do damage against the back end of the Braves rotation.
Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 83-67
Playoff odds: 97.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .520
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 15-16
2
Road
.464
Sept. 17-20
4
Road
.463
Sept. 22-24
3
Home
.620
Sept. 25-27
3
Home
.604
Key series: Sept. 22-24 vs. Brewers
The Phillies have cooled after a red-hot August, partly due to their difficult schedule: six of their eight September series are against teams still considered contenders. The last week of the season, Philadelphia hosts the teams with the best record in each league: the Brewers and Rays. Neither club is likely to be taking its foot off the gas, though by the last weekend of the season, the Rays will likely have at least locked up a wild-card bye, if not the AL’s No. 1 seed. We’re circling that Brewers series, as Milwaukee nearly swept Philadelphia in June.
San Diego Padres
Record: 81-68
Playoff odds: 71.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .487
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 14-17
4
Road
.369
Sept. 18-20
3
Home
.493
Sept. 22-24
3
Road
.604
Sept. 25-27
3
Home
.527
Key series: Sept. 25-27 vs. Diamondbacks
For all the intrigue the NL playoff races have lacked, the baseball gods may have handed down a best-case scenario for the last weekend of the regular season: Padres and Diamondbacks, potentially battling for the last playoff spot. Not only have the Padres and Diamondbacks been nearly neck-and-neck in the standings, but they’re 5-5 against each other this season, meaning their tiebreaker is undecided, too. However, it should be noted that the white-hot Padres could still chase down the Phillies or Cubs, especially with four games at Coors Field on tap.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 79-71
Playoff odds: 31.4 percent
Strength of schedule: .485
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 14-16
3
Home
.493
Sept. 18-20
3
Home
.577
Sept. 22-24
3
Road
.369
Sept. 25-27
3
Road
.541
Key series: Sept. 25-27 at Padres
Much of what we wrote for the Padres applies here as well. In the next two weeks, both teams will play the Marlins, the Rockies and a playoff team — the Diamondbacks play the Yankees, and the Padres face the Dodgers — before meeting in the regular-season finale. The Snakes have ground to make up as the Padres have a head of steam here in mid-September. In splitting the season series so far against San Diego, the Diamondbacks have scored slightly more than the Padres across those 10 games: 52 runs to 47. Get your popcorn ready.