V8 SLEUTH has calculated the impact to James Golding’s finals chances going into the Repco Bathurst 1000 caused by the disqualification of the Blanchard Racing Team Mustang that he over-shared with Richie Stanaway at the AirTouch 500 at The Bend last Sunday.

Golding would have finished seventh had he not been removed from the results, costing him a vital 182 points in the championship points table. He now lies 14th in points, 87 points behind the 10th place cutoff, and practically out of contention for the Ryco Enduro Cup.

Making it worse, three of his rivals for the 10th finals spot benefited, with points gained by André Heimgartner (13 points), Jack Le Brocq (12), and Thomas Randle (10) who were moved up the finishing order because of Golding’s disqualification.

Plot your own Supercars finals scenarios with our finals points calculator

But how does that impact Golding’s finals chances? We ran a mathematical situation of the Bathurst 1000 twice to find out, one with 100 million simulations with the starting point being the point score based on the actual result (a Golding disqualification), and a second identical simulation with the point score as it would have been if Golding finished seventh at The Bend.

The difference was stark, with Golding’s probability to gain that vital 10th finals spot changing from 84.81 percent to 17.54.

The main beneficiaries of the disqualification were Le Brocq (9.5 percent to 51.3 chance of making the finals in our model), Thomas Randle (2.1 percent to 12.6) and Andre Heimgartner (2.5 percent to 10.9).

Jayden Ojeda’s chances also improve (1.2 percent to 7.7), however by relatively less because he finished ahead of Golding in the provisional results, and unlike the other three gained no additional points at The Bend after Golding’s removal from the final results.

To qualify for the finals, Golding has not only resolve an 87-point deficit to Le Brocq, but 25 to Heimgartner, 24 to Randle, and make up 17 points on Ojeda.

DriverPlayoffs odds without Golding DSQPlayoffs odds after Golding DSQJack Le Brocq9.5%51.3%André Heimgartner2.5%10.9%Thomas Randle2.1%12.6%Jayden Ojeda1.2%7.7%James Golding84.8%17.5%