UFC Vegas 121 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks

Find the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks & strategy for UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our predictions, analysis & fighter breakdowns.

If you’re hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $250k UFC Throwdown with $50k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let’s get to the action…

Main Event – Bantamweight

Raul Rosas (12-1-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (22-5-0)
DK Salaries: Rosas ($8,700), Barcelos ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Rosas (-170), Barcelos (+140)

Still two weeks shy of his 22nd birthday, Rosas continues to get the job done, albeit it under limited circumstances. He’s 6-1 in his first seven UFC fights. The last three have come via decision, and the company has done a very nice job of shielding him against anyone remotely dangerous. His most recent win, against Rob Font in March, was his biggest to date, but Font is a striker with zero grappling chops. 

Barcelos is 39 years of age, and that’s a concern, but he’s going to be the most dangerous guy Rosas has faced to date for a variety of reasons I’ll touch on below. The Brazilian has quietly won five straight, including victories over Montel Jackson, Ricky Simon and Payton Talbott. Any of those guys would be the best opposition Rosas has seen to date. The fact Barcelos is in this position is remarkable considering he lost four of five from June 2021 to August 2023.

We’ve seen enough from Rosas at this point to know he’s a one-dimensional wrestler. He’s very dangerous early on and quickly tires. He does virtually no work from the top, averaging a pitiful 1.34 significant strikes landed per minute.

It’s position-over-damage all day long, and with judges seemingly placing a larger emphasis on the latter these days, especially in smaller venues like the UFC Apex, I don’t think it’s a style that will work long term.

Rosas is certainly young enough to improve in all facets, but nothing we’ve seen thus far suggests that will be happening.

Barcelos is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and former 2009 Brazilian Nogi BJJ champion. He’s also a five-time Brazilian national wrestling champion.

He’s shifty and creative on the mat despite having all of three career wins via submission.

If we’re looking at just individual skill sets, Barcelos would be the play all day long. 

Neither man can do anything on the feet, so we’re probably looking at a 25-minute affair. In that case, Barcelos is going to have a cardio edge. It’s going to get dicey early, but he should be fine if he is able to survive say, two rounds. 

That said, there’s a 17-year age gap between the two. Rosas was born in 2004, Barcelos in 1987. 

The younger guy deserve to be the favorite almost every time when there’s an age gap that large, and I agree with that here.

I’m still taking Barcelos.

The fact this fight is scheduled for five rounds definitely favors him. The fact Rosas’s greatest strength — his wrestling — plays into Barcelos’ greatest strength — his submission game — is enough for me to roll the dice on the underdog.

UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Barcelos

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Co-Main Event – Middleweight

Rodolfo Vieira (11-5-0) v. Robert Bryczek (18-7-0)
DK Salaries: Vieira ($8,400), Bryczek ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Vieira (-160), Bryczek (+135)

This is a really weird fight to have as the co-main event, but that’s the theme of this entire card.

Set to turn 37 years old in late-September, Vieira appears to be just about out of time. He’s 1-3 in his past four fights, with decision defeats to Andre Petroski and Eric McConico, in addition to a knockout at the hands of Bo Nickal. The Nickal fight he obviously gets a pass on. The other two, not so much.

Bryczek turned 36 years old on the 4th of July, so youth isn’t on his side either. He had three separate past stints with Oktagon in Europe before arriving in the UFC in February 2024. Bryczek fought just once in 2024 and once in 2025. This will be his second fight in the span of about five months, which is suspicious in and of itself. His three bouts with the company have consisted of a knockout win over Brad Tavares sandwiched between unanimous decision defeats to Cam Rowston (understandable) and Ihor Potieria (not understandable).

As a former four-time BJJ World Champion, Vieira is about as decorated on the mat as any fighter in MMA history. 

While that’s all well and good, the other parts of his game have simply never developed, probably because he didn’t turn pro until 2017.

He has zero power, with just one career win via knockout. He looks stiff and uncomfortable in prolonged striking exchanges and typically gets hit for more often than he hits his opposition.

His 2.87 takedowns per 15 minutes is a strong number, but Vieira lands just 22 percent of his shots, and he’s primarily been matched up with subpar grapplers of late.

Bryczek is essentially the exact opposite. He has 12 career wins via knockout. He’s dangerous for a limited amount of time. 

Rowston is a good opponent, but Robert was hammered from pillar to post for 15 minutes in that fight. He faded after a fast start against Tavares despite winning. He was found himself on the short end of a 67-32 mark in terms of significant strikes landed against Potieria. 

This is a total toss-up and a fight I personally have lined as a pick ’em.

Both guys have major flaws. I have little interest in either, but when push comes to shove, I’d rather take the savings Bryczek provides.

I seriously doubt I’ll have much, if any, exposure either way.

UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Bryczek
 

Bantamweight

Montel Jackson (15-4-0) v. Ricky Simon (22-7-1)
DK Salaries: Jackson ($8,800), Simon ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Jackson (-200), Simon (+165)

Jackson was brilliant from March 2021 to May 2025, winning six straight fights, including three via knockout. The lone concern during that period was his frequent inactivity. He’s lost back-to-back since, both via split decision, to Deiveson Figueiredo and Barcelos. Montel will be 35 next April and competes in a division typically run by younger talent, so his runway to make a potential impact is short.

Simon — who turned 34 in August — has been trending the wrong direction for the past three-plus years. He’s 2-4-1 in his past seven fights, with the lone thing he has going for him being that he fought quality competition during that entire stretch. I’m not optimistic about a potential turnaround giving all the things that made Ricky successful early in his UFC run have seemingly evaporated from his game. 

Jackson’s advanced numbers are odd.

He has real power, with eight of his 15 career wins via coming via knockout. He has just one career win via submission, although he’s averaging a whopping 2.71 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Montel rarely gets hit, absorbing just 1.4 significant strikes per minute. That’s the type of number typically associated with a pure grappler like Islam Makhachev. Although Jackson can wrestle, he’s not the type of guy to smother you from top position. 

At one point, Simon had some of the best cardio in the division. He was a chain wrestler, constantly shooting for the duration of bouts. If his first three attempts failed, there would be a fourth, fifth and sixth try forthcoming.

I don’t know if it’s age-related or not, but Simon doesn’t keep the pace he once did. Over his last two fights, a unanimous decision defeat to Barcelos and a draw against Adrian Yanez, Ricky is 2-for-11 on his takedown attempts.

That’s not going to cut it, especially for a guy that has always had his shortcomings on the feet.

Jackson’s edge on the feet is legitimate. I don’t see how Simon wins unless he suddenly goes back to spamming takedowns, and even then I’m not sure it would work in this matchup.

UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Jackson

Backing the favorite and confident enough to play the striking totals for this fight on pick’em sites? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing actual betting lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.    

Women’s Bantamweight

Norma Dumont (13-3-0) v. Ailin Perez (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Dumont ($7,900), Perez ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Dumont (+120), Perez (-140)

Dumont saw a six-fight losing streak snapped in a unanimous decision defeat to Joselyne Edwards in April. She was outworked on the feet for 15 minutes in that fight, which is concerning in its own right. Dumont is gigantic for 135 pounds. She would be best served competing in a featherweight division, which obviously no longer exists within the company.

Perez has won six straight herself dating back to July 2023. She hasn’t lost a fight since September 2022. It looks great on paper but hardly seems sustainable long-term. Five of the six wins have come via decision. I’ll touch on the reasons I’m pessimistic below.

Perez absorbs just 1.58 significant strikes per minute. Unlike Jackson, who I mentioned above, she is very much the type of fighter that excels by racking up takedowns and pinning her opponent to the mat.

Ailin does very little from the top, and it’s very much position-over-damage. For a fighter that averages 4.9 takedowns per 15 minutes and almost always sees the final bell, Perez hasn’t landed more than 62 significant strikes in any of her five previous wins. In four of the five, she landed 42 or fewer.

To recap, Perez is toast if her takedowns don’t land.

So, can Dumont remain upright long enough to win this fight on the feet?

The answer is… maybe?

She’s been taken down just three times in her past seven fights. She’s theoretically bigger and stronger than Perez, although she doesn’t fight like it.

Neither woman has really fought anyone good. 

Perez is four years younger, and unlike Simon, I expect her to stick to her game plan, for better or worse. She knows where her bread is buttered. 

I think she can rack up just enough control time to earn another boring decision.

UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Perez
 

Other Bouts

TUF 34 Bantamweight Final
Mehemmedeli Osmanli (13-1-0) v. Ilimbek Akylbek (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Osmanli ($9,100), Akylbek ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Osmanli (-290), Akylbek (+235)
UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Osmanli

TUF 34 Women’s Strawweight Final
Melissa Amaya (9-0-0) v. Valesca Machado (aka “Tina Black”) (16-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Amaya ($7,300), Black ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Amaya (+180), Black (-200)
UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Black

Bantamweight
Brady Hiestand (9-2-0) v. Rinya Nakamura (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Hiestand ($6,900), Nakamura ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Hiestand (+285), Nakamura (-360)
UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Nakamura

Light Heavyweight 
Rodolfo Bellato (13-3-1, 1NC) v. Christian Edwards (8-5-0)
DK Salaries: Bellato ($8,700), Edwards ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Bellato (-180), Edwards (+150)
UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Bellato

Lightweight
Elves Brener (16-6-0) v. Josiah Harrell (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Brener ($8,000), Harrell ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Brener (+115), Harrell (-130)
UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Brener

Bantamweight
John Castaneda (21-8-1) v. Heili Alateng (17-10-2)
DK Salaries: Castaneda ($9,200), Alateng ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Castaneda (-325), Alateng (+260)
UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Castaneda

Middleweight
Mickey Gall (7-7-0) v. Sedriques Dumas (10-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Gall (-165), Dumas (+140)
UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Gall

Women’s Strawweight
Vanessa Demopoulos (11-8-0) v. Yazmin Jauregui (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Demopoulos ($6,400), Jauregui ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Demopoulos (+675), Jauregui (-1050)
UFC VEGAS 121 PICK: Jauregui
 
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.

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DraftKings MMA Scoring

Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered “Power Strikes” by official scorers.A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 PtsControl Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.